The candidacy of Salvador Illa in Catalonia rethinks the electoral scenario

The Catalan socialists have decided to go on the attack when the party of the February 14 elections seemed already decided.

The appointment by surprise and at the last moment of the Minister of Health, Salvador Illa, as a candidate in the regional elections represents the determined bet of the PSC to try to dispute the victory of Esquerra Republicana and its pro-independence partners.

Replacing at the last moment Miquel Iceta by the minister with the most media coverage of the moment, the Socialists try to turn the polls upside down and prevent the independentists from continuing to monopolize the Generalitat.

The objective is none other than to avoid a new clearly independentist government and, in case of not being able to govern, to facilitate agreements with Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) to remove from power the toughest secessionist sectors that Carles Puigdemont continues to lead from his Belgian refuge .

The movement, risky to replace the Minister of Health at such a delicate moment, caught everyone by surprise, starting with ERC.

The favorite party in all the polls sees in the appointment of Illa a new danger for a candidacy of Pere Aragonès, who in recent weeks has suffered, as acting president of Catalonia, the wear and tear inherent in the management of the second wave of the pandemic, in addition to having become the target of criticism from his up to now Junts per Catalunya partners.

• Illa will be the PSC candidate for the Generalitat

• Iceta proposed to Sánchez the candidacy of Illa at the height of the second wave

• Sánchez considers taking Darias to Health and making Iceta a minister

The PSC's in extremis maneuver - which came when the lists were already closed and only pending to be ratified by the party leadership - seeks to shake the idea assumed by all political actors in Catalonia that there is no short-term alternative to a government of a pro-independence court with ERC, Junts and support from the anti-establishment of the CUP.

Most of the polls carried out so far pointed to an ERC victory closely followed by Junts per Catalunya, which seemed to lead both parties to try to repeat a government coalition like the one that has led the Generalitat for the last two legislatures .

The PSC believes that it now has a lever within its reach to become essential in the new government, either within the Executive with an agreement with Catalunya en Comú Podem and ERC - something that all the actors deny in public - or from outside with specific support to an Executive of Esquerra and the commons.

Either of the two options would continue to facilitate ERC maintaining its support for the Pedro Sánchez Government in Congress while managing the release of those convicted of the

procés

, either through pardon or by reforming the crime of sedition in the Penal Code.

However, the objective is the presidency of the Generalitat: "It is not a battle to be the second political force in the country, but to achieve the presidency of the Generalitat", said this Wednesday Miquel Iceta when appearing with Illa.

The still minister responded by assuring that he wants "to be useful to resolve the situation in Catalonia."

The steering wheel, however, has risks.

And the criticism of the opposition wondering if it is appropriate for a Minister of Health to leave office at the current time of the pandemic has only just begun.

I am a public servant and have always tried to be where I could be of use.

Now the @socialistes_cat tell me that I can be useful to resolve the situation in Catalonia, so here I am.

Prepared to preside over Catalonia.

I accept the candidacy.

Thanks, @miqueliceta pic.twitter.com/vTTsPTL43W

- Salvador Illa Roca / ❤️ (@salvadorilla) December 30, 2020

The PSC, Iceta and Illa himself had denied ad nauseam - and until the very day before - the operation that this Wednesday ended up materializing.

Although there was consensus that Illa could be a good candidate for the future, its leaders believed that Iceta now deserved one last chance as a headliner after having re-floated a party that hit rock bottom in the 2015 regional elections.

The Socialists believe they have the polls in their favor.

Especially since Illa has literally risen to fame this year with her handling of the pandemic.

But also because his mettle has kept him quite apart from extreme polarization, both from the

process

and from the health crisis.

Hence, today, according to the CIS polls and those carried out by the Generalitat, Illa is the second highest valued Catalan politician, after Oriol Junqueras (ERC), who cannot appear because he is in prison and disqualified by the Supreme Court.

The decision of the socialist leadership has also been unrelated to the fact that Illa has a better score than Iceta in these same polls: 4.8 compared to 4.3.

"Illa is not going to

antagonize

and has managed to capitalize on the management of the pandemic better than Pedro Sánchez," says sociologist José Juan Toharia, president of Metroscopia.

"Illa's technical and dialogue profile gives her a vocation of transversality that at this time can be well received beyond the traditional voters of the PSC", considers Toharia.

Not in vain, Illa was from the first moment in the negotiating team that got ERC to facilitate the investiture of Pedro Sánchez, now a year ago.

When necessary, Illa has also rowed to facilitate agreements with the commons, the sister party of Podemos in Catalonia, and even with Junts per Catalunya to govern the Diputación de Barcelona.

Rivals

Probably due to the transversality that many attribute to Illa, ERC is the party that has most harshly welcomed the arrival of the minister in the Catalan campaign.

“Illa represents the bet of the PSC to go to look for the votes of Citizens.

We will have to choose between Esquerra and the PSC, ”Oriol Junqueras' team tweeted.

Despite the multiple agreements that ERC has reached with the Socialists, both in Congress and in key Catalan institutions such as the Barcelona City Council, Illa will be the great rival of candidate Pere Aragonès.

ERC's strategy will focus on emphasizing that what the PSC seeks is to separate the independence movement from the Catalan Government at all costs, even if for this it needs to agree with the PP and Ciudadanos.

The rest of the parties have already focused their strategy on delegitimizing Illa's bet and saying that he has used the Ministry of Health and something as unfortunate as a global pandemic to make his own political career.

Ciudadanos may be the other major loser by the new commitment of the socialists.

The crises that have been chaining the party that in 2017 managed to win the elections in Catalonia have led Inés Arrimadas's men to fight now for a discreet fourth or fifth place according to the polls.

And the problems don't stop growing.

The one who was its leader and candidate in Catalonia until it was set aside last summer left training this Wednesday with a slam of the door to sign as number two of the PP of Catalonia.

And the day before, the Cs spokesman in the Tarragona City Council did the same to join the PSC lists.

The Citizens candidate, Carlos Carrizosa, called it "authentic irresponsibility" that Illa is now leaving the Ministry of Health to become a candidate.