Germany will have a new government in 2021.
Experts Bofinger and Raffelhüschen agree that this will also have to do with rescuing the pension fund.
But opinions differ when it comes to the solution.
Freiburg / Würzburg
- a different head of government than Angela Merkel - an almost unimaginable thing for many young people in Germany.
But the fact is: In autumn 2021
Merkel
will
leave the Chancellery after around 16 years, despite all speculations to the contrary *.
The successor will follow in big footsteps.
And at the same time facing big tasks ...
After the Angela Merkel era: what will happen next with retirement?
Bofinger and Raffelhüschen judge
Because while Merkel - to this day always at the top of the popularity rankings in surveys - has always competently moderated major crises, some long-term decisions have fallen by the wayside.
This also applies to the topic of
pensions
: at the request of
Ippen-Digital-Zentralredaktion,
two of Germany's most prominent experts took
stock of the Merkel era - and dared to look ahead.
The
long-standing economy Peter Bofinger
and the controversial and distinguished economist
Bernd Raffelhüschen agree that there is a
clear need for action if Germany wants to ensure the care of its senior citizens in the future - but the opinions of the two experts are strong as to how exactly the right measures for a new federal government should look apart.
Angela Merkel and pension policy: Experts reprimand misjudgments - but draw different conclusions
Their positions give an insight into the range of what is possible depending on the orientation of the new coalition.
Or at least it could be: Bofinger, who in 2004 moved
into the circle of “economic
wise men” on the recommendation of the
trade unions
and stayed there longer than any other member in the history of the institution, advocates
compulsory
insurance for the self-employed
in the statutory pension.
Anything else could endanger the pension in the future.
The economically liberal Freiburg professor Raffelhüschen - at the Stiftung Marktwirtschaft also publisher of the “Generation Balance Sheet” - sees the situation differently: Germany could do well in terms of pension policy, he argues - if the youngest GroKos had not distributed expensive “gifts”.
In view of the conflicting
expert opinions
, only the future
can tell which recipe is the right one
.
And the politics of Angela Merkel's successor.
So in 2021 everything is in the hands of the voters.
Angela Merkel: Ex-economist Bofinger warns of pension mistakes by GroKo - and sees a clear solution
+
The economist - and former economy - Peter Bofinger.
© Stefan Boness / Ipon / www.imago-images.de
“However, this undermines the stability of the legal system.
(...) For today's employees, there would then no longer be enough contributors available in 40 or 50 years. "
Peter Bofinger, economist and ex-economist, on the current pension plans of the Merkel IV government.
Expert Bofinger warns of pension errors - and calls for compulsory insurance for the self-employed in the statutory pension
“Despite some criticism, the
statutory pension insurance
(GRV) is a brilliant system.
Because employees now pay part of their income as pension contributions, in old age they receive a share of all earned income that is then created in the economy.
Due to the wide diversification, the GRV is
safer than any capital investment
and it is
inexpensive
, as there are no fees for the acquisition of units and the management of funds.
The
return of the GRV is also impressive
at around 3 percent.
But the system can only work if
as many workers as possible take part
.
Only then can it be guaranteed that future retirees will share in the entire future income.
This has not yet been the case, as the
obligation to take out pension insurance
only applies to employees, but not to the self-employed.
The current federal government is planning to make
insurance
compulsory
for the self-employed
, although they
should have the
right to choose
whether they take out
statutory or private
insurance.
However, this undermines the stability of the legal system.
With the increasing digitization of the economy, the dividing line between self-employed and dependent employment will become increasingly difficult to draw.
There is therefore the risk that an
ever larger proportion of the workforce will no longer participate in the statutory pension insurance
.
For today's employees, there would then no longer be enough contributors available in 40 or 50 years.
If you want “your pension” to remain secure, the new federal government must
introduce compulsory
insurance for the self-employed in the statutory pension scheme
.
They probably drive better with it anyway than if they had private insurance with zero interest rates. "
Pension after Angela Merkel's time as Chancellor: Economist Raffelhüschen reprimands GroKo- "gifts"
+
The economist Bernd Raffelhüschen
© M. Popow / www.imago-images.de
"Instead of going further in the right direction, the last two grand coalitions gave generous gifts to the majority of the electorate."
Economist Bernd Raffelhüschen takes stock of the Merkel's government's pension policy from 2013 to 2021.
Expert Raffelhüschen attests pension errors: "Exactly the same challenges ..."
“To get straight to the point - the pension policy challenges for the new federal government are precisely those challenges that the old federal government also faced.
With
Schröder's Agenda 2010
and the subsequent
introduction of the
pension at 67
,
decided
by the
first grand coalition
,
the statutory pension insurance had changed from a restructuring case to a European model patient.
If
the
decision had
also been made to
link the statutory age of access to life expectancy
and
to have repealed
the regulations on the
deduction-free pension from 65
in the period after 2030, Germany would have been one of the countries - worldwide that can be counted on one hand - with a sustainable pension.
But instead of going any further in the right direction, the last two grand coalitions
gave generous gifts to
the
majority of
the
electorate
.
The pension guarantee from Labor Minister Scholz in 2008, the deduction-free pension of 63 from Labor Minister Nahles in 2014 and the
double stop line
as well as the
increase in the basic pension
will
simply overwhelm
future contributors and / or
taxpayers
.
Note: If twice as many old people from three quarters of the current contributors demand the previous pension level for a constantly growing pension payment period, then future generations will have a
real acceptance problem with the generational contracts
in old-age provision that have
run well up to now
.
And if you are looking for the cause of the demographic problem, you should quickly find what you are looking for in the baby boom cohorts, who are known to have too few children. "
The Merkel era ends after 16 years: Ippen-Digital-Miniseries on the challenges for the coming federal government
What other major challenges await
Angela Merkel's heirs
in the new federal government?
You can also read the other two parts of our mini-series at the
turn of the year 2020/21
:
Topic care:
"The pain threshold has long been exceeded" - Social Association VdK and care employers see "mammoth tasks"
Climate topic:
"As soon as we can" - Fridays For Future and economic researchers are surprisingly unanimous
(
fn
) *
Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital network.
The boldings in the contributions were made editorially.