From the point of view of economists and practitioners, new restructuring rules and the corona crisis will ensure that the number of company insolvencies will increase significantly in 2021.
Halle / Berlin -
From the perspective of economists and practitioners
, new
restructuring rules
and the ongoing
corona crisis
will ensure that the number of
company insolvencies
will increase significantly
in the coming year
.
After the declines in 2020, there will be a drastic increase in 2021, said restructuring expert Lucas Flöther of the
German Press Agency
.
"If entire industries are affected and the crisis fundamentally calls into question the business model for many, then a crater arises in the balance sheets that can
not be closed again
with
liquidity
aids." In addition, the
Bundestag
recently passed new
restructuring
rules
.
They only allow corona-damaged companies to use the
protective shield procedure
to reorganize themselves on their
own
in 2021
, even if they are insolvent.
Otherwise, this procedure is only possible in the event of impending insolvency, said Flöther.
"And it is a fact that many corona-damaged companies are insolvent."
The economy will collapse sharply in 2020, but the number of corporate bankruptcies will hit a low.
Experts warn of new zombie companies.
https://t.co/3bTNoer4QI
- Handelsblatt (@handelsblatt) December 27, 2020
Corona crisis forecast: the number of company bankruptcies will increase in 2021 - protective shield one reason
He assumes that the number of
insolvencies will
also rise because many companies are
using
the
protective shield
.
The insolvency expert at the
Institute for Economic Research in Halle
(IWH), Steffen Müller, also expects the new rules to influence events.
It could be that small business owners in particular have delayed filing their bankruptcy, said Müller.
The reason: Anyone who goes through personal bankruptcy as a self-employed now only has to wait three years until they are released from their remaining debt.
So far it took twice as long.
Overall,
however
, the
IWH economist
expects
that the number of bankruptcies will initially only increase slowly.
Politicians will continue to try, with their help for companies,
to prevent
a
wave of bankruptcies until the federal election in the fall
, said Müller.
"That should be one of the strongest arguments."
As early as 2020,
state aid
and relaxed application requirements
slowed the
number of bankruptcies in Germany despite months of closure orders and the global
corona crisis
.
The
credit agency Creditreform
estimated at the beginning of December that around 16,300 companies would go bankrupt.
That would be 13.4 percent less than in 2019. The state rescue programs also provided
deadweight effects for real bankruptcy candidates
, it said.
Were there perhaps silent bankruptcies in 2020 when entrepreneurs in the retail, catering and transport industries simply canceled their business?
Federal Statistical Office: Fewer de-registrations from businesses than in the previous year
The previous figures speak against it: According to
the Federal Statistical Office
, there were 16.5 percent fewer cancellations in the first nine months than in the same period of the previous year.
The decline is at a similar level to that of the
bankruptcy figures
, said IWH researcher Müller.
"This clearly speaks against the assumption that we are
not seeing any increase in
bankruptcies
because entrepreneurs are quietly deregistering their business."
(Dpa)