The EU turns the page after Brexit

A truck arrives this Friday at the entrance to the port of Dover.NEIL HALL / EFE

The European Union enters a new decade in full hangover from the political earthquake of Brexit.

The community club seeks to turn the page after having suffered its first split with the departure of a member, the United Kingdom, which joined in the first enlargement, in 1973. Brussels believes that it has found sufficient momentum to face a new era after having closed projects of great significance, such as the European vaccination campaign, the reconstruction fund and the investment agreement with China, which represents a pike towards the longed-for strategic autonomy that the EU is pursuing.

Europe will finally know from now on what Brexit means.

Nobody celebrates the loss as a partner of a commercial and diplomatic power like the United Kingdom, although the EU does get rid of the main lever that held back further political and economic integration.

Not a few in Brussels doubt that projects of the magnitude of the pandemic economic recovery fund could have been carried out with the United Kingdom sitting at the table.

Accustomed to the endemic divisions between north and south and east and west, Brexit has turned out to be a powerful glue that has brought the Twenty-seven together during the three and a half years of negotiations.

“The EU is freed from Brexit, which had been stuck in its shoes since 2016, with the success of keeping all partners together.

Now Brussels faces a year to see how its geostrategic nature becomes a reality ”, says the former vice president of the European Commission Joaquín Almunia.

The EU seems finally determined to take steps towards “strategic autonomy”, that is, the ability to make its own decisions, after having “slept for a long time under the protective umbrella of the United States”, in the words of the head of the European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, in a recent interview with EL PAÍS.

Signing the investment agreement with China without waiting for Joe Biden to sit in the Oval Office - despite his team asking for time - points to that dynamic.

“We already gave an example of that leap by creating an economic fund to help us, which surprised some outside the Union.

The agreement with China is also another example of this push to shape the position of the EU, ”says Javier Solana, former High Representative for the Union's Foreign Policy and president of the

EsadeGeo

think tank

.

Brussels reaffirms its commitment to take advantage of Beijing's opening-up movement and trusts that it will not weigh on future relations with Washington.

The European Commission has been in contact with Joe Biden's transition team from almost day one to launch an agenda that guarantees multilateral global governance undermined by Donald Trump by blocking the World Trade Organization or removing the US from the World Organization Of the health.

"The EU must play an active role in defending multilateralism and in international world forums," adds Almunia.

The pandemic also imposes the urgency of finding that autonomy.

“The EU must build a new economy that can meet common challenges.

We cannot be so dependent on imports from China in some sectors, for example, ”says former European Commissioner for the Economy Pierre Moscovici.

This is not the only reason why managing the current crisis is crucial.

Whether the gap between north and south widens will depend on the success of the reconstruction strategy, even putting the integrity of the single market at risk.

"The recovery plans are not the end of the story, but the beginning," warns Moscovici.

The approval of the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine, whose campaign started simultaneously in almost the entire EU, has been a balm in a continent that exceeds 15 million infections and 350,000 deaths.

However, capitals are unable to gauge yet the extent of the current wave of infections or the bottlenecks that pharmaceutical companies are warning of.

Economic transformation

Former Commissioner for Employment and Social Affairs László Andor highlights that the recovery fund (750,000 million euros) is a great "leap forward", but it could fall short in view of the restrictive measures that have been imposed in the EU.

"We will have to think about going further with a community unemployment insurance fund that can alleviate an eventual implosion of poverty or exclusion due to the pandemic," he says.

Moscovici, who highlights the “new spirit of solidarity” that this recovery fund prints, points out that one of Europe's greatest tasks is to reduce inequalities between countries and regions.

Brussels, in fact, links recovery to modernization.

And modernization to reforms.

To structural changes, but also to the transformation towards a green and digital economy.

Brussels does not want to lose global leadership in the battle against climate change, while hoping to be in time to get on the digital battle train.

And there it is willing to use all its weapons, also to stand up to the great North American and Chinese technological giants, whose power shares have only grown during the pandemic.

“The EU must continue to be a regulatory power with regard to technology giants or in the climate field.

Many other countries are following his model, ”says Solana.

The firepower of these plans, however, is limited to a period of six years, which could be insufficient for such a transformation.

Faced with the pending issue of a fiscal weapon for the euro zone, the European Central Bank has already requested that this fund be permanent.

London School of Economics economist Paul De Grauwe is convinced that this anti-crisis instrument is here to stay.

“The European Commission will issue bonds to cover this expense.

And when the debt is due, what will you do?

In my opinion, issue more bonds, "he says.

The UK march, however, does not blur the blocks.

Neither the North-South divide that marks the fiscal and financial debates nor the resistance of the East to accelerate the step towards a free economy of fossil fuels.

Without London within the community club, Warsaw and Budapest stand as the two capitals that try to capitalize on the battle against Brussels and the main obstacle to tackle another of the great debates that the EU cannot continue to park, the migration pact, also linked to the renewal of a deal with Erdogan's defiant Turkey.

And more than the impact of Brexit, among many diplomats there is more the question of how this entire project will be piloted without Chancellor Angela Merkel, who will no longer stand for re-election this year, at the controls of the ship.