Behind the turnaround: a desperate need for mediation services and a lobby in the face of President Biden, who is hostile to Erdogan • Israel is careful not to damage its new alliances with Greece, Cyprus and the Gulf states, and conditional on improving ties in stopping Hamas terrorist activity from Turkish territory • Fraud or surprise rapprochement?
Encountered increasing international isolation.
Turkish President Erdogan
Photography:
Photo: AFP
The diplomatic lounges in Jerusalem and Washington are currently rubbing their eyes in amazement.
Even in a world of cold interests, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's flip-flop when it comes to his ties with Israel is not a common thing.
The patron of the Muslim Brotherhood, the man who in recent years has insulted Israel from every stage and lied in his promise to prevent Hamas terrorist activity from Turkish soil, is suddenly courting Israel anew.
Until recently, Erdogan was still there to ridicule and denigrate the "reconciliation agreement" with Israel, which was signed in 2016 and was supposed to settle the Marmara conflict, and re-establish relations with Israel on normal lines.
He compared Israel's conduct toward the Palestinians to Nazi acts against the Jews, called the Israeli government "a continuation of Hitler's path," and even said that "filthy Zionists are polluting the Temple Mount."
Two years ago, following the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem and the bombing of Hamas targets by Israel in Gaza, Erdogan expelled from Israel the Israeli ambassador Eitan Na'a and returned his ambassador from Tel Aviv.
And here, in recent months - a reversal: Erdogan is once again seeking Israel's proximity and sending messengers, hints and unequivocal messages.
Moreover - after a long period of "annoyance", a new Turkish ambassador, Opok Olotash, one of Erdogan's associates and in many ways a member of his character, will soon arrive in Israel.
Olutash also denied the existence of Israel on "Palestinian lands" in the past and expressed great hostility against it.
Even the normalization agreements with Morocco, Turkey is now accepting with surprising moderation, after only a few months ago it angrily attacked similar agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
How eager Erdogan is this time in his courtship of Israel will also be evidenced by reports of a series of meetings between the head of the Israeli Mossad, Yossi Cohen, and the head of Turkish intelligence, Kan Fidan, which are supposed to establish and upgrade intelligence sharing between the two countries.
"Certificate of Integrity for Americans"
So what is going on with Erdogan?
Senior Jerusalem officials estimate that the explanation for the sharp change in the Turkish president's conduct lies in the election results in Washington.
The relationship between Erdogan and President-elect Joe Biden is broken and broken, and the Turks believe that the road to the White House passes through Jerusalem.
"What dictates the relationship between Israel and Turkey is the nature of the relationship between the United States and Turkey," explains Dr. Chai Eitan Cohen Inrojek, a Turkish expert at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and a member of the "Dayan Center" at Tel Aviv University.
"The Turks," says Cohen Inrojek, "fear the escalation of American sanctions against them and seek the help of Israeli and Jewish lobbies, which are powerful in their eyes, in Washington. Their working premise is that a normalization of relations with Israel will be accepted in Washington as a measure of trust, honesty and sincerity." "Against this background, about a week ago, Masut Jashin, Erdogan's adviser, announced that if Israel took one step towards Turkey, Turkey would take two steps.
Inrojek says that he knows Jashin, a secular military man, not an Islamist." "He was my lecturer in international law studies in Istanbul," he says, and offers to take his words seriously. Erdogan also said this week that Inrojek offers to take it seriously. He assumes that the question addressed to Erdogan by a journalist was invited: "Erdogan was asked what the truth was about Yedioth." Warming up 'relations with Israel, and then expressing a desire to improve relations with us, despite his difficulties with' Israel's policy towards the Palestinians' and 'with the people who are at the top of Israel'.
"When it comes from Erdogan himself, it's much more suggestive."
Spoke of ousting Erdogan with the help of the Turkish opposition.
Biden // Photo: Reuters
Why is the new White House tenant so frightening to Erdogan?
Joe Biden has an open account with the Turkish president, and he has never bothered to hide it.
The US president-elect is a consistent opponent of the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus.
Biden has repeatedly stated in the past that if elected president, his government would officially recognize the Armenian genocide perpetrated by the Turks in the early 20th century.
Unlike Trump, Biden shows much less forgiveness for Erdogan's Turkey channel, which is still a member of NATO, opened with Russian President Putin, as well as for operating the advanced S-400 air defense system that Turkey has acquired from Russia, or for the Russian-sponsored Turkish-Iranian connection. Especially about Turkey's military invasion of northern Syria and the crushing of the Kurds there. As president, Biden is expected to renew US support for the Kurds, who during the Obama era were armed with American weapons and fought ISIS.
Will they investigate the Turkish bank?
Erdogan is not only well acquainted with Biden's positions - they met face to face four times - he even remembers the words of the president-elect during the presidential race about a year ago.
Biden, as a candidate, then spoke no less and no more about ousting Erdogan, with the help of the Turkish opposition.
Although he did not intend to overthrow, but to overthrow through elections, he was perfectly clear in his words.
Erdogan now fears that Baidan, unlike Trump, will not continue to delay the criminal investigation against the Turkish government bank Halkbank, which allegedly tried to circumvent US sanctions on Iran.
The investigation, according to various estimates, could reach the top of the Turkish government, including Erdogan himself and his associates.
But Biden is not the only problem for Erdogan, who is increasingly finding himself in international isolation.
Trump, whom Erdogan will still miss, imposed security sanctions on Turkey at the end of his life in the White House.
He removed it from the F-35 evasive construction program, and banned it from selling security products to other countries that had American components.
Erdogan fears that Biden will intensify these sanctions even further.
The Turkish president is in conflict with the United Arab Emirates and also with Saudi Arabia, which is imposing an unofficial economic boycott on him.
The boycott hits the Turks at a time when the Turkish lira is in a slump and inflation and unemployment there are soaring.
With Egyptian President al-Sisi, who outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood - in Erdogan's eye - and ousted the "brothers" man Muhammad Morsi from the presidency, Erdogan has nothing to do.
In addition to all its troubles, the European Union is also considering imposing sanctions on Turkey, in light of its oil exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, while harming maritime territories in which Cyprus and Greece are ostensibly sovereign.
Israel is well considering how to respond to the renewed Turkish courtship.
The semi-formal Turkish proposal for a joint maritime border agreement with Israel has been rejected for the time being, and its chances of being complied with are not high.
The proposal, in the form of an article by retired Admiral Jhat Yeiji, an associate of Erdogan, was published a few weeks ago in the "Turkoscope" monthly, edited by Dr. Cohen Inrojek.
In his article, Yaiji suggested connecting the maritime borders of Israel and Turkey on Cyprus account, and planted it "candy" another Israeli pipeline connecting gas for export to Europe through the existing pipeline in Turkey, there will still gas pipeline Htrns-antoli Europe.
this proposal is indeed cheaper than the cost of the project in Israel that Israel has committed today, as part of a territorial agreement between Israel, Greece and Cyprus from the beginning of the year.According to this agreement, by 2025, a total of 1,900 km of pipeline will be extended from Israel to Cyprus and from there to Crete, Greece and finally to Italy.
The cost of the project to the three countries - $ 6.86 billion - will be much more expensive than that offered by Yaiji.
Israel, which is committed to its new alliances with Greece and Cyprus, is not expected to swallow this bait either, but Cohen Inrojak estimates that "the very publication of the proposal and the publicity of things in Turkey as well - although it was clear to the Turks that Israel would not accept the offer" The Turkish public to re-regulate relations with Israel. "
Normal with the star of the
current US sanctions against Turkey could be very painful for them, explains Cohen Inrojek. "Turkey sells battleships to Pakistan, and is even proud of its attack helicopter, 'Attack', and the drones it manufactures and even sells to many countries around the world. But all of these systems incorporate security components that originated in the United States, and are now banned from sale.
All this is happening before Biden, who, unlike Trump, is expected to intervene in the issue of human rights in Turkey and the detention process there. "Cohen Inrojek mentions that the Turkish prison is still staffed by the US embassy in Turkey, due to their alleged intervention in the failed coup ".
Cohen Inrojek estimates that the new Turkish ambassador will arrive in Israel about a month or two after Biden enters the White House, but warns against the sincerity of normalizing relations with Turkey.
"They will be able to continue talking to Hamas, but they must stop supporting the organization and the hostel they provide to those who plan or direct terrorist acts within their territory. This is unacceptable. The Turks must also reach a clear understanding that the harsh verbal attacks on Israel will cease. "The first Muslim woman to recognize Israel in 1949 is an asset to Israel, and we have no interest in making it an enemy - so real normalization is definitely in place - but after what we have been through with her in recent years, caution must be exercised."
Turkish or Islamic?
And there is another possibility, even more sensational.
Pinchas Inbari, an Arab world researcher from the Jerusalem Center for Public and State Affairs, recently received reports from his sources in the Persian Gulf that a revolutionary move is taking place behind the scenes: contacts between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, aimed at Turkey's renouncing Muslim Brotherhood and reconciling.
"The Muslim Brotherhood leadership in Kuwait," says Inbari, "was afraid of being arrested and fled to Turkey, but she hurried back and preferred to sit in the Kuwaiti prison, rather than live under Erdogan. Leaders of the leadership told of a crisis between the Muslim Brotherhood and Erdogan."
What is the background to this crisis?
"At the moment," says Inbari, "it is still unclear. In their version, in a recent conversation between Erdogan and Saudi King Salman, Erdogan promised the Saudi king that he would act against the Muslim Brotherhood, which is known to be the root of the problem and dispute between Erdogan and their Saudi Arabia.
Inbari cautiously estimates that it is possible to find support for this news from Kuwait, even in Erdogan's conduct after the signing of the agreement to end the Armenian-Azerbaijan war.
"In his victory speech, Erdogan, who supported the Azeris, ostensibly portrayed territories in Iran as Azerbaijani and as part of Azerbaijan. The Iranians very much disliked this music. Erdogan suddenly sounded to them like portraying Turkey as a guardian over all Turkmen, meaning Turks living outside Turkey." .
In northern Iran, Inbari explains, "there is a large Turkish-speaking minority who are Turkish, and the Iranians were furious. They responded by publishing a map from the Persian Empire period, in which parts of Anatolia, part of today's Turkey, are included within the borders of the Persian Empire. One of the conclusions is that Erdogan "He is looking for a new card now; instead of the Islamic card - a Turkish card."
If so, "it means that Erdogan is now also saying to Israel: I am Turkish before I became an Islamic, let's renew the good relations we had when Turkey was first and foremost Turkish, before it was Islamic," says Inbari.
"Is that possible? I would not have denied it. But of course I would have looked at it very carefully, being careful not to damage our ties and agreements with Cyprus and Greece, and of course insisting that the Turks stop helping Hamas and allow them to act against us from their territory."
Indeed, it is difficult to see Israel renouncing, only because of the renewed Turkish courtship, its membership in the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, which only two months ago became a regional intergovernmental organization.
The forum also includes Egypt, Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, and is perceived in Ankara as an anti-Turkish forum.
It is even more difficult to imagine Israel reconciling with a vain Turkish promise to stop Hamas' activity from its territory, as was the case in the reconciliation agreement with Ankara.
Bank transfer through Tehran
Adv. Nitzana Darshan-Leitner, director of the Shurat HaDin, who recently published her book on the secret war on terrorist funds (Harpon, published by Yedioth Books), still remembers how her organization's petition to the High Court of Justice against the reconciliation agreement was rejected Of Israel with Turkey.
"We asked the High Court of Justice to force the state to stand up to the Turks for the cessation of Hamas activity from their territory.
"Unfortunately, we were rejected by the High Court. Unfortunately, we were right," she clarifies.
Darshan-Leitner mentions the activities of Hamas '"Construction Bureau", which is still operating from Istanbul these days, in the production and upgrading of weapons, including rockets, for Hamas' activities in the Gaza Strip. It also mentions the Turkish banking system, which transfers funds to Hamas for "charities" Of Hamas, "that the difference between them and the organization of the organization's military is blurred and often does not exist at all." Darshan-Leitner does not believe that Erdogan will distance himself from the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, only to improve relations with Israel, and warns of further Turkish fraud.
Commitment to the Alliance.
Netanyahu with Greek Prime Minister (Central) and President of Cyprus // Photo: AFP
According to her, it is possible to attach detailed, information-rich reports that the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center has published in recent years on the connection between Hamas and Turkey. "Hamas's operational activity in its territory, which includes terrorist squads in Judea and Samaria and the transfer of terrorist funds to Judea and Samaria and the Gaza Strip."
One of the main operatives in the Hamas campaign on Turkish soil, who is involved in the terrorist centre's assessment, is Jihad Ya'amor, a Hamas operative. Originating from Beit Hanina in East Jerusalem. Ya'amor was involved in the abduction of the late soldier Nachshon Waxman, was sentenced to life in prison in Israel and deported to Turkey as part of the Shalit deal.
"During his years in Turkey," the center's staff wrote, "Ya'amor served as a liaison to the Turkish government and MIT, the Turkish intelligence agency. It is estimated that he was also involved in covert operational activities, mainly operating terrorist squads in Judea and Samaria.
As a cover for Ya'amour's activities in Turkey, he serves as president of a cultural association called the "Jerusalem Association and its History".
Along with a long list of terrorist attacks and attempts by Hamas in Israeli territory over the past few years, which have an affinity for "Hamas Turkey", the center's researchers also outline Turkey's place as a base state, from which Hamas conducts its financial affairs.
Similar information was recently published in a report by the US Treasury Department. "Hamas operatives and aides in Turkey," the report states, "are engaged in fundraising, transferring them to the military wing in the Gaza Strip, financing terrorist organizations in Judea and Samaria and operating money laundering companies in Turkey." Terrorist money. "
The main source, according to the Americans, of transferring financial support to Hamas through Turkey (and sometimes through Lebanon) - is Iran. The Americans believe that the transfer of funds to Hamas is done through a" Quds Force "of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and that Hamas activists and aides are involved. based in Turkey.
Is Turkey trying to appease Israel now, take real steps cessation of all these? or will make do, like reconciliation, "the previous statement from the mouth to the outside and then abandoned all Hamas terrorist activity from its territory? the defense establishment will follow closely.