01/02/2021 20:41
Clarín.com
Cities
Updated 01/02/2021 20:41
Far from falling, the coronavirus case curve continues to rise in Buenos Aires.
To such an extent that R0 (R Zero), the virus contagiousness index, today
is above 1
, when months ago it was below that number.
As the networks are flooded with photos and videos of clandestine parties and careless gatherings, the lines in the feverish units lengthen.
And a reality arises:
now those who are most contagious are young people
.
"Both our teams of trackers and the epidemiological investigations of recent days indicate that new cases are increasingly seen in young people," says a spokesman for the Buenos Aires Ministry of Health.
However, he clarifies that “we still do not have more general statistics to communicate.
The most recent can be released only on Wednesday, at a press conference ”.
However, it is easy to see this panorama if the official data from Buenos Aires are viewed through the tools of the website covidstats.com.ar, run by Mauro Infantino.
If a map of age groups is drawn up, it can be observed that, in the last month,
the bands of patients between 25 and 35 years of age had a sharp point
and increased their primacy over the rest of the age groups.
They always used to be the majority, but now that majority is much more forceful and growing than months ago.
As happened everywhere, those who push the second corner are the young people.
Look at the age group that guides the December regrowth, even more concentrated than in October in the range 25-35 pic.twitter.com/6Y03DS59JW
- Andres Snitcofsky (@rusosnith) January 2, 2021
The concrete thing is that, "these days,
there is more community circulation of the virus
", admits the spokesman of the Ministry of Health of the City.
"R0 had been placed below one, but now it is above 1, that is, infections are on the rise," he adds.
"Two weeks ago we were with a moving average of 300 cases a day, and
in ten days we went to 600,
" the same spokesperson told this newspaper.
Since there are fewer tests on weekends and holidays and fewer people use the health system, the moving average of the last seven days is used as a reference, in order to have a more accurate view of how the curve evolves and observe trends.
Just in the last seven days,
the daily average of cases was 863 only in residents
.
In turn, the current positivity is 30.8%, according to the last daily part of the City's health portfolio.
That is the index measured among the 996,998 tests done with PCR in Buenos Aires territory.
Doctors who work in Febrile Emergency Units (UFU) maintain that in some the positivity reaches 40%.
The increase is worrying, although, according to the spokesperson for the Buenos Aires Ministry of Health, “for now
it has no impact on the hospital occupancy
of mild, moderate or severe patients.
The health system does not have the stress that was registered at another time, where most of the cases were admitted ”.
According to official data, patients with severe cases of Covid-19 occupy 22.8% of the beds in their sector, while moderate ones account for 13.9% of those available in the corresponding area, and mild ones, 4 , 6%.
The City Police try to disperse the youth meetings in Parque Chacabuco on January 1.
Photo Courtesy TN
Why this lack of impact on the hospital system?
In Health they mention some factors: “On the one hand, this is due to the number of asymptomatic patients.
On the other hand,
the coronavirus is affecting younger segments
.
In addition, more has already been learned about the disease and it is better determined which cases are for hospitalization and which are not ”, indicates the same spokesperson.
"We do not quite understand why this second wave was so early, that most expected by the end of the summer, but surely
the relaxation of care and restrictions
has undoubtedly played a role.
Above all, the increase in the frequency of meetings and the number of people who participate in them, as well as the context in which they take place ”, says Rodrigo Quiroga, bioinformatician and assistant researcher at CONICET, in dialogue with this newspaper.
The specialist gives concrete examples: “When
more than ten people participate in a meeting
, and people meet very frequently, the chances of contagion from those meetings multiply enormously.
Not to mention if it is indoors and without the use of chinstraps ”.
In these days the meetings of young people in squares and parks without social distance were concerned.
Photo Courtesy TN
These days, the images of the Christmas and New Year celebrations in squares and parks, with
thousands of young people without social distance,
worried
.
It is to that age group, especially compromised in this outbreak of infections, that infectologists say that we must address.
Speaking to Télam, the Ricardo Gutiérrez Children's Hospital specialist, Eduardo López, said: "The message that one should give to young people is, first of all, that
being outdoors does not prevent the disease
, it reduces it but does not immunize Secondly, try to avoid crowds and respect themselves and others, with the use of the mask ".
And he stressed that wearing it under the chin and nose is like not wearing it.
For now, in the Buenos Aires government
there are no plans for new restrictive measures
in the face of the new scenario, but
there are plans for
a new evaluation between January 8 and 10, to analyze the curve of cases and the level of occupation of beds in therapy.
According to official sources, in the meeting between President Alberto Fernández, the Buenos Aires governor Axel Kicillof and the Buenos Aires head of government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, it was also agreed to undertake
awareness campaigns
so that people take care of themselves.
Quiroga, for his part, suggests some measures that could be taken and that do not necessarily imply a new strict quarantine: control clandestine parties more and end all activities from 8 p.m. during the week and all day on weekends.
"The schedule is simply for a sociological issue: it allows a much simpler control," explains Quiroga.
If at a certain time everything must close, it is easier to control and sanction, and in some way it is also a reality check for society.
The pandemic did not end, we are in trouble again
”.
The health mobile of the DetectAr operation is now in Callao at 600. Photo Lucía Merle
Meanwhile,
the health mobile of the DetectAr operation
continues to circulate in the City.
Its current stop is at
Avenida Callao 600
, on the border between the neighborhoods of Balvanera and San Nicolás.
So far, 205,465 people have been tested with this operation, of which 26.7% gave positive results.
In turn, in each territory where the program ended, there are health agents and testing centers, which work every day from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. There, any neighbor who has had contact with a positive case of Covid-19 can approach in a way spontaneously, with three hours of fasting, to take the test.
NS
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New year, party and lack of control: they rebuked a TN journalist during the celebrations in Chacabuco Park
The parks and squares were filled with young people at Christmas and there is fear that they will be a source of contagion in the new year