Recently, warnings of strong earthquake in the country have intensified • A geologist claims: "The quake could occur earlier than expected, we may find ourselves in ruin"
The Home Front Command is practicing rescuing trapped people from an earthquake
Photography:
Oren Cohen (Archive)
The last time an earthquake struck Israel was in 1927, killing hundreds of people.
Almost a hundred years have passed since then, and recently warnings of a similar earthquake that is expected to occur in the country in the coming years have intensified.
This is because past experience shows that in Israel there is a prevalence of a moderate earthquake of 6 degrees once every hundred years.
But the area, as evidenced by biblical history, also saw strong earthquakes above 7 degrees that destroyed cities like Scythopolis, which is the Roman Beit She'an.
In light of this, we turned to Professor Amotz Agnon, an expert in geology and geophysics from the Nadine Institute and Freddie Herman of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, to understand how much we are in danger of strong earthquakes in the coming years?
We asked Prof. Agnon about the magnitude of the earthquakes in the Syrian-African rift that passes through the Jordan Valley: "This is due to the sparsity of the population on the shores of Sinai and Saudi Arabia, and the distance of buildings from the source of the earthquake below the Gulf."
"The quake spread from a 35-kilometer-long rupture of the Earth's crust. Such tremors release energy that has accumulated on Earth for decades, hundreds and even thousands of years, depending on the rate of quiet motion of the tectonic plates in a given area." Shows that the Arabian plate slides northwards compared to us at a fairly low speed - about half an inch per year. Indeed, history suggests that earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above occurred every thousand years in data sections of the valley area that stretches from Metula to Eilat (Dead Sea Rift), including the Jezreel Valley system. Haifa (Replica of the Carmel). It is important to explain that such earthquakes create a particularly high risk when their center is 100 km away from cities, and sometimes even further. "
What would happen if there was such an earthquake further north in the Dead Sea area?
"First the 1995 earthquake can be compared to the one that was in 1927, it hit the center of the country and was devastating. It was measured in instruments, at a magnitude of 6.2. That is, we have a whole magnitude gap from the current earthquake. The meaning of such a gap in one unit is equivalent to increasing energy by 30. Therefore, the earthquake in the Gulf of Eilat in 1995 was 30 times stronger than the earthquake in 1927 in the Dead Sea.
In other words, Prof. Agnon explains that "such an earthquake, if it functions in the Dead Sea in the coming years, will lead to a severe catastrophe. In the 8th and 11th centuries AD, the Jordan Valley, between the Dead Sea and the Sea of Galilee, were shaken by magnets estimated at 7, and the destruction Was extremely extensive.In 2012 the national reference scenario assuming a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in the Jordan Valley was updated.The scenario predicts 7,000 deaths, more seriously injured, tens of thousands lightly injured, 170,000 evacuated, 10,000 destroyed buildings and 28,000 severely damaged buildings. "9,000 people are trapped in the rubble and 200,000 buildings with moderate and light damage."
Prof. Agnon is not willing to indicate when such an earthquake may occur, but he refers us to a study according to which earthquakes in Israel are more frequent than previously thought.
He said it was impossible to predict when an earthquake would occur: "I would like to note a study published last month in the prestigious magazine Scinece Advances, which reveals an unprecedented difference in quiet time between two consecutive destructive earthquakes. An international team led by researchers from the Hebrew University, Tel Aviv University and other institutions, analyzed Drilling results from the Dead Sea bottom The mud core removed from the drilling, 300 meters deep and over 450 meters long, has preserved evidence of earthquakes over the past 220,000 years. The Dead Sea mud excels in recording environmental processes in high separation (almost annually), as shown Researchers from the Hebrew University and the Geological Survey (with the help of other researchers from Israel and around the world) already 15 years ago. "
"The drilling presents the most detailed and longest earthquake record in the world, and the findings are of great importance for understanding local risk. The immediate consequence of risk in our region stems from the exposure of the average time between large earthquakes that devastated significant parts of the region." 160 years). This is a dramatically shorter finding than we thought up to this study, about 11,000 years. This finding must light a red light for building planners and builders of sensitive facilities, whose damage could endanger human and property life. "A response to moderate (but destructive) earthquakes should be significantly shortened. The next earthquake can occur earlier than we expected, and only if we prepare accordingly will we not find ourselves in rolling destruction."
At the end of his speech, Prof. Agnon notes that "earthquakes are one of the most demanding natural disasters in human and property life. They are unavoidable, and the time elapsed until the next earthquake only increases the risk - energy continues to accumulate, and the Earth's crust approaches the breaking point. "But countries that have invested in assessments of devastating earthquakes (such as Chile, California, Alaska) have saved thousands of lives and rehabilitated their economies. In contrast, countries that have not been properly prepared have been fatally hit (such as Haiti), and the disaster is likely to haunt future generations."