(CNN) -
On the first day of 2021, President Donald Trump warned of the war that is coming within the Republican Party.
"I look forward to seeing the great Governor of South Dakota @KristiNoem compete against RINO @SenJohnThune in the upcoming 2022 primaries," he tweeted.
“She would do a fantastic job in the United States Senate, but if it's not Kristi, others are already lining up.
South Dakota wants strong leadership, NOW! "
What crime did Thune, the second Senate Republican, commit?
It certainly wasn't breaking Trump's agenda over the past four years, as the South Dakota senator voted with the president 93.6% of the time, based on calculations by 538 (that was the same score as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell).
No, what Thune “did” to Trump is to publicly acknowledge that Joe Biden won the 2020 election. “I understand that there are people who feel very convinced of the outcome of these elections, but in the end, at some point, you have to face music, ”Thune told the New York Times last month.
And let's say that Congress's planned challenge to the Electoral College on January 6 would a) be unsuccessful and b) put many Republicans in a terrible political position.
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It's a new year but the politics of 2020 are still there: 20 more days of Trump and his efforts to reverse the election
"I think what they have to remember is that it is not going anywhere," Thune told CNN last month.
I mean, in the Senate, I'd go down like a hunting dog.
I just don't think it makes a lot of sense to put everyone through this when you know what the end result will be.
By stating these facts, Trump is actively encouraging Noem, a state governor and a vehement Trump supporter, to stand up to Thune.
And make no mistake: it is not about ideology, as Trump seems to suggest in his tweet attacking Thune as a "RINO" (Republican in name only, in English).
Thune has spent much of the past two decades serving in the House and Senate, and amassing a solidly conservative voting record.
His lifetime score in the American Conservative Union is nearly 85 (his partner, South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds, has a conservative score of 75).
Trump's push for a major challenge with Thune is solely about the president believing the senator is not loyal enough.
And "loyalty" is defined as supporting their unfounded conspiracy theories about the election and / or attempting to reverse the results by extra-legal means.
Thune is not the first Republican elected official Trump has threatened for lack of loyalty.
In the wake of his November defeat in Georgia, Trump repeatedly lobbied Republican Governor Brian Kemp, a Trump loyalist from start to finish, to find a way to overturn the results.
When, after several accounts, Kemp said he had no way to change the outcome, Trump began attacking him and seeking a major challenge in 2022.
"Doug, do you want to run for governor in two years?" Trump asked Republican Rep. Doug Collins at a rally of Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue before the January 5 runoff races.
-You look like governor.
The standard set here by Trump is clear: If you don't support his fact-free attempts to reverse the election, you'll consider him a "real" non-Republican and work to find someone more loyal to him to drive him.
Which brings me to the debate - and vote - coming this week in Congress on the objections to the Electoral College registered by Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, as well as a handful of staunch Trump supporters in the House.
Trump will almost certainly use that vote as a litmus test of loyalty going forward.
Either you vote with him (and against, well, you know, a little thing called democracy) or he will find someone who opposes you the next time you run for re-election.
"One of the Republican senators running for reelection in '22 recognized that voting against Trump can create a challenge in the primaries," John Bresnahan of Punchbowl News tweeted on Friday.
"'This is a problem for me,' said the senator, who asked not to be identified."
Yep!
Big moment!
(Remember, too, that Senate Republicans already have a lot to worry about in 2022; they have 21 seats to defend, starting today, compared to just 13 for Democrats.)
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What Trump's threats against Thune and Kemp suggest is that the outgoing president is completely comfortable dividing the Republican Party in two: those who back him to the bitter end (and beyond) and those who, well, don't.
Which, if it happens, is a total disaster for the short term (and perhaps medium and long term) future of the Republican Party.
A rift that creates a Trump party and a Republican Party would likely lead to losses up and down the ballot in swing seats and states, as there simply aren't enough Republicans in the country to divide and still win.
Smart conservative minds - like Thune and McConnell - understand this math.
Trump doesn't care.
Either way, what he threatens to do to the Republican Party could leave it badly hurt for years to come.
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