What path will oil prices take in the coming weeks?
The answer will depend in part on the outcome of the meeting held today in Vienna, by videoconference, between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their partners, including Russia.
They meet to stop the amount of crude to put back on the world market next month.
Read also: Oil: OPEC + will increase production in January but less than expected
The objective of this meeting, closely watched by the players in the oil market, is to adjust the supply of black gold to a demand slashed by the Covid-19 pandemic and whose recovery is uncertain, with online target crude price support.
The cartel and its partners will try to consolidate the rise in oil prices recorded in recent months.
WTI and Brent, American and European references, are now hovering around 50 dollars.
First level of 500,000 barrels daily
The last round of meetings, between November 30 and December 3, had "
paved the way for a gradual return of 2 million barrels per day to the market over the next few months, with participating countries standing ready to adjust these levels. depending on the conditions and the evolution of the market
”, recalled Sunday the general secretary of OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo, during a joint technical committee (JTC) of OPEC +.
This strategy was reflected in a first level of 500,000 additional daily barrels in January and by a promise of meetings at the beginning of the month of the thirteen members of the cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, and their ten allies, led by Russia, in order to decide on the production volume for the following month.
Stumbling blocks
This follow-up shows the cartel's desire to keep a strong influence on the market but also the gravity of the situation in which the producers of crude are plunged, who were satisfied before the health crisis of two summits per year at the headquarters of the organization. in Vienna, Austria.
Their cutting effort, painful for the finances of the 20 countries that are subject to it (Iran, Venezuela and Libya are exempt), played its role last year by reversing the vertiginous fall in crude prices, until in negative ground for the American benchmark in April, a first in history.
The outcome of the OPEC + members' policy also remains fairly dependent on the goodwill of two of them, Russia and Saudi Arabia, respectively second and third world producers behind the United States.
Last March, it was the disagreement between Riyadh and Moscow, leading to a short but intense price war, which had tripped the prices of crude for the first time.
The climate is now calmer, with Saudi and Russian officials showing their unity in mid-December at a bipartisan meeting.
Read also: Oil: Ryad and Moscow show their unity before the OPEC + summit
However, there are no shortage of stumbling blocks within the club, particularly regarding compliance with quotas or more or less optimistic forecasts as to the recovery in oil demand.
In its last monthly report, the cartel itself had wanted to be cautious in reducing the world's appetite for oil in 2021. It had noted in passing "
the high uncertainties, mainly with regard to the development of the Covid-19 pandemic and the deployment of vaccines
”, as well as the impact of the“
structural effects of Covid-19 on consumer behavior, in particular in the transport sector
”.
