Special interview
Written by: Ou Jiajun
2021-01-04 08:00
Last update date: 2021-01-04 08:00
In 2020, the global market will be ravaged by the new crown epidemic, but under the influence of the large printing papers of various countries, the stock market is still trying to protect it, and individual sectors have repeatedly set record highs.
With the availability of vaccines, it is time for investors to deploy ahead of schedule in 2021. "Hong Kong 01" interviewed Chih-Jian Chin, Investment Director of Centaline Asset Management, and Deng Jianan, Director of Greater China Retail Business of Jinda Asset Management in Hong Kong, to select four selections that can be deployed next year Plate.
[Section 1: Technet Stocks]
The Hang Seng Index suffered a sharp shock in 2020, with a minimum of 21139 points and a high and low volatility of 8,035 points. The annual bill fell by 958 points, underperforming the Chinese and American stock markets.
Looking at the Hang Seng Index alone, one would think that the stock market is making no progress, but the truth is that funds have long been "investing in stocks but not in the market." Benefiting from the concept of home economics, the technology network sector will outperform by a large margin in 2020, and this sector will still be the focus of next year's deployment.
However, the Chinese Internet giants ushered in a heavy blow at the end of the year and were caught in the anti-monopoly storm. Alibaba (9988) became the target of the mainland government to strengthen supervision. In addition to being investigated for suspected monopoly, its subsidiary Ant Group was also required to rectify financial management and consumer credit. Financial technology businesses such as insurance and insurance return to the origin of payment.
Affected by antitrust, Alibaba, Tencent (0700) and Meituan (3690), commonly known as "ATM", have their cumulative growth rates dropped to 12.3%, 50.6%, and 189% this year, but they are down 24.3%, 9.8%, and 9.8% from their highs this year. 12%.
Jian Zhijian said that antitrust affects the short-term valuations of large technet companies. These mid- and long-term companies will still be the first choices for investment. However, its funds do not rule out lowering the proportions and switching to small and medium-sized new economy stocks Pinduoduo (US: PDD) and Shell (US: PDD). : BEKE) etc.
Anti-monopoly｜Zhongyuan Boli Jian Zhijian: Switching to small and medium-sized science and technology networks to benefit from "Nine Musts"
Deng Jianan also pointed out that "anti-monopoly" is not limited to China, and the large US technology Internet stocks "FANG" (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) have long been accused of monopolizing the market.
He said that after the epidemic, China's economy has been among the best in the world in terms of speed and strength of rebound. Investing in China is already an indispensable part. E-commerce and game service companies are all configurable.
[Section 2: Consumer stocks]
Another long-term growth theme is consumer stocks. Many stocks are already very expensive. For example, the latest P/E ratio of Yihai International (1579) reached 129 times, Nongfu Spring (9633) reached 112 times, and the newly listed Blue Moon (6993) 75 times, the blind box concept of Bubble Mart (9992) is up to 202 times.
Jian Zhijian said that he is optimistic about domestic demand stocks such as catering and sporting goods. When the company can make brand and differentiation, it can also bring good business. The difference is whether the company's valuation is suitable for investment. He gave an example. Bubble Mart’s blind box concept is actually This is nothing new. "Even gashapons and McDonald's swaps are considered blind boxes. Sometimes the company may not win because of the special concept, but only because of execution."
He said that property management stocks are also one of the consumer categories. In the second half of the year, a number of property management companies went public to raise funds, which greatly increased the market supply. As a result, the performance of the sector in the fourth quarter was also poor, and the phenomenon of "both dogs and chickens rising" no longer appeared. , The funds are more inclined to better quality property management companies. For example, Zhongyuan Boli has always been optimistic about Country Garden Services (6098), and the sister company Country Garden (2007) has been the first in the country to sell properties, and the animal management business is guaranteed. The acquisition of Chengwei Company and the deployment of urban services have differentiated their businesses in the sector.
Deng Jianan pointed out that he is optimistic about food stocks and consumer staples, in line with the mainland's strategy of "dual cycle" of international and domestic, to cater to the trend of globalization. At the same time, domestic demand accelerates and the domestic ecological environment can support local enterprises.
He is also optimistic about the growth potential of domestic insurance stocks. Benefiting from China's long-term development, when the mainland becomes prosperous, health and wealth protection financial products are in demand, the insurance industry still has a lot of room for growth.
[Section 3: Pharmaceutical Stocks]
The new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020 highlights the importance of the pharmaceutical industry. Except for pharmaceutical stocks such as Cansino Bio (6185) that have developed vaccines, this year's new blue-chip WuXi Biologics (2269) will benefit from the additional income from the new crown project. During the year, the stock price rose by 213%, which is the blue chip with the highest increase, with a market value approaching HK$420 billion.
The management once mentioned that if the new crown epidemic continues for a long time, the new crown project will bring continuous income to the company, and it is a veritable epidemic beneficiary stock.
Jian Zhijian pointed out that Boli’s portfolio still holds WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec (2359). Among them, WuXi Biologics is particularly optimistic about WuXi Biologics’ global expansion strategy and possesses the discovery and development technology of macromolecular biopharmaceuticals, due to the difficulty of research and development of macromolecules. Higher than the research and development of small molecules such as chemical drugs, and the future development of the world will pay more and more attention to genetic medicine, he expects WuXi Biologics will gradually leave other companies.
He also said that the market is currently inclined to invest in innovative drugs. For example, the PD-1 leaders Cinda Bio (1801) and BeiGene (6160), which have portfolio positions, have been worried about the sharp price cuts of medical insurance, which affected the short-term atmosphere, but the final drop was not as good The market expectation is so fierce that the stock price rebounds, and the portfolio will continue to be held in the long-term. It is also optimistic that medical device companies such as Minimally Invasive Medical (0853) with more R&D investment and fragmented markets and products have been affected by the heart stent in the Mainland. With the centralized procurement policy, the market has dropped by as much as 90%. It was once scared of the market, but the "worst moment" is expected to have passed. We are optimistic about the high R&D investment in MicroPort Medical. Its products such as MicroPort Cardiovascular and MicroPort Medical Robots are all With independent financing and listing capabilities and diversified income sources, 50% of the income comes from overseas, which can reduce national policy risks.
[Section 4: New Energy]
The most eye-catching sector in the second half of 2020 is how few new energy concept stocks such as electric vehicles are available. The mainland has indicated that it will increase its efforts to combat climate change and deepen the transition to clean energy. In addition, after U.S. President Biden takes the stage, he is expected to be affected by climate change. The policy has more focus, returning to the "Paris Agreement", etc. It is expected that the new energy sector will continue to run out in the new year.
Deng Jianan believes that the development of the new energy sector was a slogan in the early years, and now the cost of power generation such as wind power and solar power has become cheaper and has begun to become an industry that the market is willing to invest in. He believes that this sector is only in the early part of the upward cycle.
He cited the three major sectors of the theme of carbon reduction. One is renewable energy. In addition to wind power, solar, and hydropower companies, he also pays attention to other companies in the value chain of these power companies, such as building materials and equipment needed for plant construction. ; The second is the electrification process, such as insulation glass related to electric vehicles, lithium battery technology, sensors, software, chips, etc.; the third is energy efficiency, such as waste treatment and recycling companies.
This year, Tesla's (US: TSLA) stock price has soared. Deng Jianan pointed out that its stock price has soared because of its ability to simultaneously possess automobile, technology, and carbon reduction elements. However, participating in the carbon reduction sector may not necessarily be buying an electric vehicle company. You can also look for related opportunities in the value chain. It’s as if Apple’s mobile phones are selling well, and you don’t have to buy Apple stocks. In the face of emerging megatrends, we can all seize opportunities first." For example, electric vehicles need battery technology, sensors, driverless automatic navigation systems, software, and components. , Can really make an electric car.
The photovoltaic industry in the new energy sector has also attracted market attention. For example, the photovoltaic glass that Flat (6865) and Xinyi Solar (0968) mainly sell, the two shares rose 543% and 278% during the year.
Jian Zhijian pointed out that the photovoltaic sector used to be guided by national policies and was a cyclical industry. However, the photovoltaic industry has recently seen a turning point. As more and more photovoltaic power plants are profitable without government subsidies, the industry's growth can be free from policy risks. The story of power plants is different. It is expected that more solar power plants will be built, which will drive demand for raw materials such as photovoltaic glass and turn the industry from cyclical to growth."
Looking ahead to 2021, two major factors will support the continued bullishness of US stocks |
Galois
In 2021, subsidies for new energy vehicles in the Mainland will decline by 20%. Ministry of Finance: Resolutely curb blind investment
Outlook for 2021 | U.S. continues to release water, economic stocks rise again
Outlook for 2021 | Last year's oil demand fell by more than 20%, may pick up slightly
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