After the historic collapse in 2020 of world growth (-4.3%), activity is expected to rebound, by 4% this year, according to the latest World Bank forecasts published on Tuesday.
But the recovery will be contained and fragile, warns the Washington institution.
Above all, at the end of 2021, the global wealth produced will be $ 4.7 trillion less (about twice France's annual GDP) than it should have been according to projections made before the pandemic.
Emerging and developing countries, the core of the Bank's mission, should see their wealth production grow by an average of 4.6% in 2021 and 2022. But if we remove from this group the weight of the Chinese locomotive ( which will increase by 7.9% in 2021), this growth is reduced to 3.5%.
So many figures made uncertain by the effectiveness and availability of anti-coronavirus vaccines in the coming months and possible new waves of massive contamination.
Read also: Covid-19: World Bank approves $ 12 billion plan for vaccines
In any case, the pandemic will weaken the prospects for reducing poverty in the coming decade, one of the priorities of the World Bank which had recorded real success in recent years.
The report also mentions the prospect of a lost decade for many emerging countries in terms of per capita income growth.
It fell in 2020 in nine emerging and developing countries out of ten.
The weight of debt
The World Bank is particularly worried about investment, the key to a recovery.
After its collapse in 2020, its expected rebound in 2021 is likely to be very insufficient.
Especially since it will be hampered by the weight of debt in developing countries.
Creditors' relief efforts should be continued, recommends the World Bank.
If we do not intervene on debt sustainability, warns its president, the American David Malpass, the recovery will be delayed.
After the year 2020 in which the world suffered its worst recession since the two world conflicts, economists at the World Bank draw attention to "the exceptional level of uncertainty regarding the short-term outlook".
One more reason for governments to pursue their supportive policies.