Gérard Araud is a diplomat, former French Ambassador to Washington from 2014 to 2019.
FIGAROVOX.- Was the Capitol invasion on Wednesday a coup?
Gérard ARAUD.-
We cannot say that this is a revolution!
There were a few thousand people protesting - because Trump asked them to - and they managed to get into the Capitol compound, much to their surprise.
Once they got to the Capitol they didn't do anything because they didn't have a program or a leader.
You have to see what happened yesterday: above all, it is a huge failure in American security.
In a way, it's a pretty ridiculous event.
They went out without causing any problems.
However, the storming of the Bastille was also derisory, so let's wait and see what history says about it ...
The toll is still heavy with 4 dead ... Does Trump bear some responsibility?
The American police are much more brutal than the French police.
Where the French police kill 15 people a year, in America this figure rises to a thousand!
As for Trump's responsibility, last night's events are the summary of his four years in power.
You have a mass of popular people who are in revolt and who - unlike our yellow vests - have found a political incarnation in the person of Donald Trump.
He excited them for four years and added fuel to the fire of their anger.
The events of yesterday are therefore a logical outcome of his four years.
The United States has a President who is the leader of the American rebels.
The genius of Trump was to understand in 2016 the existence of an American malaise that no one had seen coming.
Is this rebellion caused by Trump or does it precede his coming to power?
Will she survive him?
Even though he takes up a lot of media space, Trump is only a symptom of a deeper crisis.
His genius was to understand in 2016 the existence of an American malaise that no one had seen coming, because the macroeconomic results at the end of Obama's term were good.
He knew how to speak to the forgotten, and his genius was also to manage to continue to be their voice during his mandate without being taken over by the "classic" Republicans who thought they could manipulate him.
This rebellion is still here, and will remain.
There are a third of Americans who believe the election was stolen from them.
This is the continuation of an American civil war that we have known for four years.
What are the root causes of this rebellion?
Did Trump tackle these causes?
Here we are touching the limits of populism, because if there is a way to take power, it lacks substance and program.
Of course, you have to know how to capture anger, something that in France no one has been able to do with yellow vests, but what follows is for the moment quite empty.
However, unlike the American establishment, I don't think Donald Trump is dead;
he will continue to be behind the backs of elected Republican officials.
To answer the first part of your question, there are two possible causes for this rebellion.
The first is economical.
Indeed, if forty years of neoliberalism will have enabled emerging countries to emerge from poverty, the lower middle classes as well as the working class of Western societies will have seen their standard of living stagnate or even decrease.
This phenomenon has caused an increase in unemployment and an increase in inequalities.
It is no coincidence that the revolt particularly affects the Midwest where unemployment, linked to deindustrialization, is high.
The second is identity.
The majority of Trump's voters are white males;
over 60% of white men voted for him.
Against the background of demographic change, white America feels it is losing power.
From this point of view, Trumpism can appear as the last stand of this America.
One might wonder what the Democrats' national message is ...
Hasn't the radical wing of the Democratic Party also exacerbated the question of identity?
What struck us in 2016 was that we had on the one hand “Make America Great Again”, that is to say the zero degree of thought, but which nevertheless remained a call to all Americans regardless of skin color or sexual orientation.
However, the Democrats for their part did not use a national message, they asked, to make it easier for blacks to vote for their camp simply because of their skin color!
It hasn't really changed.
When we look at their view of the constitution of the US government, we get the impression that it's a split with two blacks, two Latinos, six women and one gay.
It is also presented like that in the press.
One wonders what the Democrats' national message is ... Democrats no longer see American citizens except through their identities.
The “cancel culture” in universities, even if it remains extremely in the minority, exacerbates this phenomenon.
If there is a good example of the Democrats' mistakes, it is the transgender issue.
If we owe the latter respect, they represent only a tiny minority of the population.
To make it a national subject was probably not a good calculation.
Did Trump make certain correct diagnoses?
Naturally.
Trump thinks outside the system and on a number of subjects he is able to ask legitimate questions that establishment politicians would not ask.
For example, Trump asked the question "Why should the US be the world's policemen?"
When one is an inhabitant of Wisconsin, one can, indeed, wonder legitimately why America would take care of Estonia!
Its economic record, even if it can be said that it has been paid for by an environmental massacre, is excellent.
Without COVID, he would have been re-elected.
With COVID, which he handled very badly, he still managed to get 4 million more votes than in 2016. It is also regrettable that from day one the Democrats and the entire establishment refused to recognize its legitimacy.
The problem is, the character is morally unfriendly.
Trump saw that some people wanted his skin in the face and that only exacerbated his natural narcissistic tendencies.
What will count now will be Biden's policy, but that policy will be crippled by the Senate.
Will the Biden administration be able to reconcile America?
In view of the people named, we can already say that this administration is the “Obama III” administration.
It is quite striking to note that this administration is teeming with numbers 3 which have become number 2, and numbers 2 which have become number 1!
They are very competent people, but who subscribe to the neoliberal center-left logic of the Clinton-Obama era.
We must also not forget the fact that the 2008 crisis was much more painful for America than for France.
The question that will arise in the week is that of the future of the Republican Party, because there is a rift between the conservatives who have not followed Trump and the Trumpists.
Is the Republican Party going to explode?
Will he be trumpized?
Will he be reconciled?
A son of Trump said that Republicans who do not choose Trump will be banned in the next primary ... It's interesting because it's the same debate we have in France between Les Républicains and the National Rally.
Either way, what will count from now on will be Biden's policy, but that policy will be crippled by the Senate.
Even if he has a majority, most of the Senate's decisions must be taken by 60% votes so he will not be able to push through most reforms.
Biden is setting up a very centrist government, and if he wants to go left he will run up against Congress.