After the violence on Capitol Hill, besieged Wednesday, January 6 by pro-Trump activists who managed to enter the precincts of the United States Congress, the Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, said she spoke with officials of the The US military has the means to prevent the outgoing president, whom it has called "unbalanced", from using nuclear codes.
A few days before the end of Donald Trump's mandate, political scientist Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research and specialist in the United States, looks back on this exclusive prerogative of the President of the United States, and the debates that it arouses.
The election of Joe Biden has just been validated by Congress.
Therefore, does Donald Trump still have nuclear power?
BERTRAND TERTRAIS.
Of course, he has it until the exact end of his mandate, on January 20 at noon.
Technically and legally, he can still launch a nuclear strike at 11:59 a.m. on January 20.
Do you think the concern expressed by Nancy Pelosi is justified?
Justified on the merits, no.
I can't imagine a scenario in which Trump can go that far for no reason.
I think Ms. Pelosi is acting on the symbol level.
It is a subject on which there have been many questions for four years: is it normal that a man like Trump has this power?
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Can the President of the United States make such a decision alone?
From a legal standpoint, only the president or his possible constitutional successor is authorized to give such an order, and he is not obliged to consult anyone.
It is also exactly the same for the French president.
But for the past two days, there has been an ongoing debate in Washington as to whether a technically legal order given by Trump might not be implemented by the system.
If tomorrow he orders to bomb Tehran or Ottawa, or whatever, what will happen?
Outside of a war situation, would the order be applied?
Nuclear weapons are not a red button the president pushes, there is always a human element in the system.
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Has this power resided in the hands of one man ever been a subject of debate in the United States?
It is a debate that took place during the presidency of Richard Nixon (1969-1974), who had a drinking problem.
His Secretary of Defense, James Schlesinger, says he ordered the Pentagon not to follow Nixon's orders.
This subject has also been very much discussed over the past four years, to the point that there were hearings in Congress on the subject for the first time in forty years, in 2018. They came to nothing, but allowed to put the subject back in the spotlight.
In any case, there is nothing to indicate that Joe Biden will revisit this procedure, which has been the same since 1945. It is also believed that it is a pledge of credibility, that only one person elected can have this authority is a pledge credibility of the system.
If institutional brakes existed, deterrence might be seen as less credible.
Can we expect Donald Trump to take advantage of his last days in office to use his military prerogatives one last time?
I can not imagine Donald Trump taking this type of initiative, ending his mandate with a military coup, for two reasons.
He no doubt believes that his military record is good.
I am thinking of the elimination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Qassem Soleimani, two important symbolic figures.
Or also the withdrawal of certain military forces from certain theaters.
Moreover, nobody expects him on this subject.
The insurgents on Capitol Hill did not act in connection with the international situation.