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Supporters of US President Donald Trump in the US Capitol building.
Photo: Miguel Juarez Lugo / dpa
Every terrorism researcher knows that terrorist groups do not fall from the sky.
They usually arise from larger, radical movements that fail to impose their convictions in a peaceful way.
Peter R. Neumann
Peter R. Neumann (@PeterRNeumann) is Professor of Security Studies at King's College London.
From 2008-18 he was director of the
International Center for the Study of Radicalization
(ICSR).
Such a movement has been formed in America since 2017 and now has over a million followers - including citizens of the Reich (so-called "Sovereign Citizens"), racists, members of civic militias, fundamentalist Christians and conservative supporters of Donald Trump.
What they have in common is not a conventional political ideology, but a conspiracy theory according to which America is ruled by a network of satanists and child molesters against whom Trump is waging a secret war.
Its creator is an alleged "government insider" who publishes messages on the Internet and signs them with the letter Q - hence the name "QAnon".
What makes the movement dangerous is its total rejection of the political system.
For supporters of QAnon, only Trump and his closest confidants are legitimate.
The rest of the state apparatus consists of enemies of the people with whom no compromise is possible.
They announce the "day of reckoning"
Trump incited the movement, but at the same time kept it in check.
As long as he was in power, QAnon supporters could hope that his supposed war on the "deep state" would succeed.
Q repeatedly announced a "day of reckoning" on which the president would arrest his opponents and bring them to trial.
But after Trump's defeat there is no longer a president who controls the supposed war from the highest level, which means that a completely new situation arises for the supporters of the movement.
The forcible occupation of the Capitol was a (last) attempt to prevent Joe Biden from coming to power.
The immediate consequence is that moderate conservatives are turning away from QAnon.
They don't want a civil war, and the tragic consequences of the action - five people were killed in her home - have deterred them.
As a (mass) movement, QAnon will not grow but rather shrink in the coming months.
But it does not reduce the danger it poses.
Because for a minority it is now about the whole.
From January 20th, there is no longer any reason to hold back.
Without Trump, the state apparatus falls completely into enemy hands.
The persecution of "American patriots" will not decrease but increase.
Last but not least: With the death of a QAnon supporter from California, who was shot while storming the Capitol, the movement has its first »martyr« whose victim must be avenged.
Terrorist threat
The resulting terrorist threat will be greater and more dangerous than that of jihadists in the next few years.
There are at least four reasons for this:
First, the movement has more supporters than ISIS or al-Qaeda.
Even if only one percent of a million QAnon supporters are willing to use violence, this would be 10,000 threats.
Compared to this, the jihadist following is comparatively small: in the past twenty years, only just under 500 people in America have been charged with supporting jihadist groups.
Second, QAnon is heavily armed.
Many supporters of the movement are active in citizen militias.
The second amendment to the constitution, which guarantees Americans the right to own weapons, is the most important basic right for them.
In contrast, nothing is known about jihadist militias.
Few of the 500 jihadists on trial for terrorism had military training or were considered gun freaks.
Many failed to build working explosive devices.
Third, QAnon can count on much broader popular support.
Even if most Conservatives never took part, according to recent polls, 20 percent of Republicans expressed understanding for the storming of the Capitol.
There are even sympathizers in politics: a dozen Republican elected officials participated in the occupation, several MPs defended it on Fox News, and the Alabama attorney general helped fund it.
Fourth, QAnon has infiltrated the military and police.
Again, there are no exact figures yet, but according to various reports there were at least a dozen active soldiers among the rioters in the Capitol.
Seattle police have suspended several officers for involvement in the occupation.
This is no surprise to experts: they have been warning for years that right-wing extremist groups are actively infiltrating the military and the police.
In addition, while American governments have invested billions of dollars in fighting jihadists since the attacks of September 11, 2001, funding for fighting right-wing extremism has been massively cut in recent years.
The Department of Homeland Security and the FBI Police Department lack the knowledge and personnel to effectively counter the new threat.
The storming of the Capitol was therefore not the end, but the spectacular start of a massive terrorist threat that America will be preoccupied with for years.
Peter R. Neumann tweeted as
@PeterRNeumann
.
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