After Brexit: Scotland is aiming for a new independence referendum

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A Brexit opponent holds up a fantasy flag in Edinburgh that mixes the Scottish flag with the EU flag

Photo: ANDY BUCHANAN / AFP

After Brexit, Scotland is preparing a possible second independence referendum - and reintegration into the EU.

The European Union is "the largest single market in the world, and we want to be part of it," said Angus Robertson, former vice-president of the Scottish National Party (SNP), the dpa news agency.

The aim is therefore a new referendum within the next legislative period.

Robertson was SNP leader in the UK Parliament for years and now heads a pro-independence think tank.

He warned British Prime Minister Boris Johnson not to prevent the vote in Scotland.

Its stance is anti-democratic, said Robertson: "The government is playing with fire when it tries to block democracy in Scotland." If London "continues to wall, the majority for independence is more likely to grow."

National party hopes for an absolute majority

In a referendum in 2014, a narrow majority in Scotland had spoken out against independence.

Johnson rejects a new referendum and stresses that the question has been clarified for this generation.

But proponents point out that the conditions have changed after leaving the EU.

On May 6, Scotland is to elect a new parliament, the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) of Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon is hoping for an absolute majority.

In the 2016 Brexit referendum, a clear majority of Scots voted against leaving the EU.

"Now only independence can create the possibility of EU membership, which is desired by the overwhelming majority of Scots," emphasizes Fabian Zuleeg, head of the European Policy Center in Brussels.

Kirsty Hughes, director of the Scottish Council on European Relations think tank in Edinburgh, points out that proponents have demographics on their side.

"For people under 35 years of age, 70 or 80 percent are for independence and for the EU," she told the dpa.

Corona crisis causes further division

In addition to Brexit, the badly managed corona crisis in London gives proponents of Scottish independence hope more than ever that they will break away from Great Britain.

The Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon is classified as much more competent in dealing with the pandemic than the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, said political professor John Curtice from the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow of the dpa.

“The prime minister is known to not care too much about the details.

Sturgeon, on the other hand, sounds like the chief medical officer, like a top scientist. "

A majority of Scots have been in favor of independence in polls for months.

"There is no doubt that Boris Johnson involuntarily became the best recruiter for the national movement in Scotland," Curtice said.

Experts definitely see chances that an independent Scotland with its approx. 5.5 million inhabitants can survive economically, point to oil from the North Sea and rich fish stocks as well as tourism.

An independence of the northern part of the country would have serious consequences.

The United Kingdom could break up, said constitutional lawyer Robert Hazell from University College London of the dpa.

"There are already strong signals of increasing support for a referendum in Northern Ireland on reunification with Ireland." And calls for independence were also gaining ground in Wales.

"Johnson's promise of a 'Global Britain,' strong and free because of Brexit, would turn out to be wrong," said Hazell.

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mrc / dpa