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Curfew at 6 pm: "The negative economic impact is certain, the positive health impact is much less"

2021-01-14T16:28:49.366Z


FIGAROVOX / TRIBUNE - Comparing the evolution of the incidence rate (number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants) in the departments where the curfew has already been advanced, at 6 p.m. researchers Serge Blondel doubt its effectiveness on the circulation of the virus .


Serge Blondel is professor of economics at GRANEM (University of Angers), federation Theory and evaluation of public policies (TEPP) and LIRAES (University of Paris).

Samra Bouazza is a professor of physics and chemistry at the National Education.

At 6 p.m. today, Jean Castex will probably announce an advanced curfew at 6 p.m. throughout the metropolis.

What we are sure is that this will have a negative effect on several areas of economic activity.

Regarding the health effect, the result is very uncertain.

It is regularly recalled that the advanced curfew in Guyana has reduced the epidemic but there are less than 300,000 inhabitants in an area 50% larger than the metropolis.

The absence of contact between people is much easier there.

On the other hand, removing 2 hours leads to more filling transport, shops and even workplaces, which can increase contamination.

This advanced curfew was put in place on January 2 in the most affected departments: what conclusions can we draw from it today?

The result appears overall negative, without any department with a convincing decrease.

15 departments had an advanced curfew at 6 p.m.: 7 in the Grand-Est, 6 in the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté region and 2 in the PACA region.

If we consider the region most concerned, the Grand-Est, we can now compare the 7 in curfew (3.3 million inhabitants) with the 3 maintained at 8 p.m. (2.2 million) .

It is too early to use the data on hospitalizations and a fortiori the entries in shifts for death, but positive cases are valuable indicators for evaluating the evolution.

For incidences, the latest figures relate to the situation at the time of the measurement (week from December 28 to January 3) and the last known week, from January 7 to 13.

We see that in the departments held at 8 p.m. (Aube, Bas-Rhin and Haut-Rhin), this has changed little but that for those who have experimented with this measure, 2 out of 7 have seen their incidence rate increase sharply (Marne and Haute-Marne) and this has increased everywhere except in the Vosges and Bas-Rhin.

The result therefore appears overall negative, without any department with a convincing decrease.

Serge Blondel and Samra Bouazza

More generally, the 7 in curfew saw their incidence go from 244 to 262 for a slight increase from 205 to 211 in the 3 others.

In the 8 others under advanced curfew, the incidence fell from 270 to 310. Here too, this evolution should be compared with that of neighboring departments.

To take just one example the Hautes-Alpes and the Alpes-Maritimes, under advanced curfew, respectively saw their incidence pass over the same periods from 272 and 340 to 289 and 458, when the Alpes-de-Haute- Provence, located between the two, went from 206 to 200. They are now placed in advanced curfew: not sure that this reassures them.

Just because a measure is very restrictive does not mean that it is effective.

This is not the first time that curfews have been introduced or changed.

Public authorities would benefit from precisely assessing the effect of their measures in order to take the best measures to fight the epidemic.

The fact that a measure is very restrictive does not mean that it is effective, as we have already said in these columns for wearing a mask outdoors.

We need to take measures that really reduce the risk of contamination, such as encouraging teleworking or implementing stricter protocols in places where people meet (transport, workplaces, schools).

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2021-01-14

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