A former student of the École normale supérieure, Christophe Bouillaud has been an associate professor of political science at the Grenoble Institute of Political Studies since 1999 and an associate of social sciences. He specializes in Italian politics and international relations.
FIGAROVOX.
- With the departure of ministers close to the former prime minister, Giuseppe Conte is in fact deprived of a majority, which opens up a political crisis.
What happened?
Christophe BOUILLAUD.
-
We must put at the center of the explanation the desire, visibly irresistible, of Matteo Renzi to take revenge on the two parties which have hitherto prevented him from being the great leader of the Italian renewal that he claims to be.
Indeed, by his choice to withdraw his ministers, he puts in difficulty the two other major parties allied to the government with him since the autumn of 2019, the Democratic Party (PD) and the Five Star Movement (M5S).
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On the one hand, it should be understood that the PD is none other than the former party of Matteo Renzi, of which he was the “
charismatic
”
leader
from the end of 2013 to the beginning of 2017. From this party, heir to the two major parties which guaranteed Italian democracy since 1945 (the Italian Communist Party on the one hand and the Christian Democracy on the other), he had succeeded in making it during his reign "
the Party of Renzi
", the "PDR" to take over the expression of Italian political scientist Ilvo Diamanti.
From this old house, he had therefore made a “
personal party
” of it uniquely linked to his image and his political choices, by liquidating all the old ruling class, which he had presented as just good for “
recycling
” ( rottamazione), Italian version of French "
degagism
".
However, in December 2016, the referendum was held on the constitutional reform strengthening the Italian executive and weakening the regions that Matteo Renzi had strongly wanted, and this was a bitter failure, very largely due to a rejection of his person from the part of the Italians.
Following this rout - strong electoral participation and very clear domination of the vote not from the north to the south of the country - he then had to leave the leadership of the PD, while leaving the post of President of the Council to one of his allies.
Matteo Renzi is one of the politicians most hated by Italians
In fact, thanks to his weight in the PD, and despite his unpopularity, he succeeded during the constitution of the PD lists for the 2018 elections to place a certain number of his followers on the latter's lists.
In the fall of 2019, faced with a PD who remembered that he has democratic roots and that he cannot be reduced to the political enterprise of an aspiring supreme leader, he decided to split with "His" deputies and senators, and to create a "
100% personal
" party called "
Vive Italy
" (IV).
Contrary to Matteo Renzi's hopes, his new party is peaking in the polls at around 3/5% of voting intentions, which corresponds to the fact that Matteo Renzi is one of the politicians most hated by Italians, even if, undoubtedly, there are a small number of voters who gratify him with the novelty that he has represented and still represents in their eyes.
So the first point of Matteo Renzi's strategy: to remember the good memories of his former comrades who did not have the intelligence to keep him as leader.
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On the other hand, it should be remembered that the M5S is the party which in 2016 leads the fight against the Renzi government (2014-2016) and prevents it from having its constitutional reform voted.
Above all, this party is sailing in the same waters of “degagism” as those which carried Matteo Renzi between 2012 and 2014, namely the break with the traditional policy of the parties of the Second Republic (1993-2013).
The M5S, like Matteo Renzi, is then supposed to embody a new beginning in the eyes of the Italians.
It turns out that the M5S won the stake of the embodiment of the novelty in 2018, that it carried a personality close to the M5S in power, Giuseppe Conte, and that the latter, unknown to the general public in the spring of 2018 during his appointment did not fare so badly until the last few months, but he now finds himself in difficulty in the face of the second epidemic wave.
So second point of Matteo Renzi's strategy: try to get rid of G. Conte in order to appoint in his place some renowned mediocrity allowing him to appear as the only leader available at the center, or at worst to reduce G. Conte by forcing him to agree to swallow a few snakes.
Make no mistake about it: the stake here is only purely politician, "to shoot Conte"
Of course, Matteo Renzi claims that there is a strong dispute with G. Conte and the M5S on how to use the funds of the "
Recovery Fund
" allocated to Italy or whether or not to call for funds from the Mechanism. European stability system (ESM), but make no mistake about it: the stake here is only a purely politician, "
gunning Conte
".
The real enigma of this whole affair, which comes at a time when Italy is experiencing dark hours from the point of view of the pandemic, is the reason for the loyalty to their leader of elected "
renzists
", deputies and senators.
They are obviously in a client relationship with this boss, but what does he have to offer them?
How does he hold them?
Are they so delusional about the possibility of the fate of a politician so hated by a large part of Italians?
Mystery.
Conte and Renzi pass the buck on the responsibility of a potential government crisis, because it would be very badly received by the Italians in full pandemic.
If this does take place, who will be held responsible?
For now, there is little doubt that it was Matteo Renzi who ordered his two ministers to leave the Conte government.
There are not many people among the Italian social and economic authorities who support this adventure of a ministerial crisis, which could lead to the obligation to organize early elections.
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It is therefore quite possible that Matteo Renzi is seen by the Italians as the responsible for this government crisis, but it does not matter.
The essential for Matteo Renzi is to exist, to make news, to put down G. Conte, had Rome perish.
Maintaining the current coalition seems one of the only ways to prevent Salvini's return.
Can the turbulence she is currently experiencing benefit the leader of the League?
It is certain that, for Matteo Salvini, this quarrel within the current majority is a formidable windfall.
Either, in the end, G. Conte succeeds in reconstituting a parliamentary majority in the Senate, with some so-called “
responsible
”
senators
not too keen to return to the polls this year, and then Mr. Salvini will be able to underline the political weakness of the government. Conte forced to rely on these centrists with no other goal than to remain a little senators or deputies.
Either we have to find another form of government than the M5S / PD / IV alliance, and Mr. Salvini can go so far as to slip into a government of national unity or support it from outside, leaving the role of the irresponsible opposition to Frères d'Italie (FdI), the party currently rising in the right-wing opposition.
This solution would allow him to compensate for his excess of language in recent months, and it would undoubtedly correspond well to the demands of the wing most anchored in the institutions of the League.
Matteo Renzi would probably use this victory of the rights (...) to then rebuild around himself, an opposition
Either, for lack of any other solution, Italy returns to the polls at the end of spring, and there it will undoubtedly be the right-wing candidate best placed to return to business as President of the Council.
Berlusconi is no longer really in the race for leadership, and FdI is still behind the League in terms of voting intentions.
Barring an unthinkable surprise at this stage, the rights will be behind the leader of the largest party in this camp - perfectly unitary in all local elections since 2018, moreover beyond the high profile quarrels at the top.
To conclude, it should be noted that Matteo Renzi would probably use this victory of the rights which would undoubtedly mark the end of M5S and a heavy defeat for the PD, to then rebuild around himself, an opposition.
It should indeed be pointed out that, of course, a constitutional reform was voted by the deputies and senators to reduce by half the number of parliamentarians, and duly approved by a confirmatory referendum in September 2020, but that there remains an uncertainty about the electoral law. that would apply.
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To avoid distortions in the political representation of the country, it would be better to change the electoral law in force since 2017 intended to elect twice as many deputies and senators, but would we have time in such a case?
In the event of early elections, it would therefore probably be the 2017 law that would apply.
However, with its barrier threshold of 3% of the vote nationally for an isolated list in order to have elected officials, this would allow Matteo Renzi to return with a few deputies and senators almost certainly to pose as leader of the opposition to the right probably winning.
There had been talk of a 5% threshold in the possible new electoral law… This point may also explain the activism of Matteo Renzi, in a hurry to avoid such an eventuality.