The Palestinian Authority's declaration of elections is another illusion of Abu Mazen Israel today

The Palestinian Authority chairman issued a presidential decree last night directing elections to the Legislative Council and the presidency.

• A program with exit points.

  Abu Mazen

  Photography: 

  AFP

The presidential decree issued last night by Palestinian Authority Chairman Abu Mazen to hold elections to the Legislative Council (Palestinian Parliament) on May 22, and to the Palestinian presidency two months later on July 31, surprised many.

Not only were the Palestinian political system surprised, but also the news of the chief himself's landing the news like a thunderbolt on a clear day, since this is the first time since 2004 that Abbas has signed such a presidential order, which was bound by reality after Yasser Arafat's death. 

However, the card drawn by Abbas on Friday evening, after a meeting in Ramallah with the chairman of the Central Election Commission, Hanna Nasser, and without prior consultation with any of his associates or the leaders of the Palestinian factions in the West Bank and Gaza, was not entirely surprising.

The Palestinian chief, as is his custom in the Holy Land since he inherited the throne after Arafat's death, is working first and foremost to fortify his sole rule - with a predatory move by any rival who threatens his rule.

There is nothing to talk about opposition from home at all - and the most notable example of those who felt this in their flesh is Muhammad Dahlan (who was forced to flee the West Bank after being accused of corruption);

Yasser 'Abd Rabo, who served as chairman of the PLO executive committee and was removed from office overnight after being suspected of collaborating with Dahlan and his patron in Abu Dhabi to oust the chief. 

15 years of rule without opposition

The Palestinian parliament, which was bustling and biting during Arafat's time, was also dispersed by Abu Mazen on the way to 15 years of rule without any opposition from home.

However, the price he paid for losing power in Gaza in 2007 after Hamas violently claimed victory in parliament in 2006 - Abu Mazen did not anticipate.

At the time, he was caught "with his pants down" on the issue of control of the Gaza Strip - along with Israel and the United States.

In this case, too, Abu Mazen did not take responsibility for the loss of the Gaza Strip in favor of Hamas, and the entire blame fell on Dahlan, who headed Palestinian preventive intelligence in the Gaza Strip.

It will be recalled that Dahlan was expelled in disgrace while using a violent and cruel lynching of his men in the internal security apparatus in Gaza, which were no less violent and cruel than Hamas.

So the question arises what will change now?

Especially in light of the fact that every poll conducted by the Palestinian Authority has clearly shown that the vast majority of the Palestinian public was interested in seeing Abu Mazen resign from his chair.

There is also an unreasonable fear that Hamas may seize control of parliament and the presidency, first in seemingly "democratic" ways while restructuring the Palestinian National Council in the PLO, by implementing extensive reforms that will allow Hamas and its Islamic Jihad allies to control the Palestinian National Council.

According to the presidential decree issued by Abu Mazen, the composition of the council will be determined on August 31, following the parliamentary and presidential elections a few weeks earlier. 

As stated, not a single senior Palestinian official was found who knew how to answer the obvious question: why did Abu Mazen decide right now to issue and publish the presidential order?

The main explanation for the move, according to senior officials in Ramallah, is that Abu Mazen is working to show the emerging Biden administration - which will put the issue of human rights and democracy in Arab countries in the Middle East at the top of the agenda - that these issues are weighty in the Palestinian leadership.

Abu Mazen is apparently trying to prove that the democratic system in the Palestinian Authority is alive and kicking, even if it has been in a coma and in a state of artificial soul for the past 15 years. 

Other senior Palestinian officials point to Abu Mazen's attempt to coerce Hamas, through the alleged democratic process that is expected to take place in the Palestinian political system until the parliamentary and presidential elections.

According to those senior officials, Jibril Rajoub's status has strengthened since the death of Abu Mazen's close adviser, Saeb Erekat.

Rajoub enjoys good relations with the leaders of Hamas, and he has received a promise from the leaders of the terrorist organization that controls Gaza that they will not run in the expected elections for a presidential candidate who will face Abu Mazen, and the organization will be satisfied with its representatives elected to the Palestinian parliament.

This may also be the reason why Hamas congratulated the presidential order that came out of Ramallah on Friday night. 

The chief took care of sophisticated "exit points"

Abu Mazen is a polished, scarred and experienced political war horse.

He has already experienced the trauma of losing power in the Gaza Strip in favor of Hamas, which has left him as the de facto candidate for president of the Palestinian Authority, but in fact his control has been reduced to areas controlled by the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

He also knows that Hamas' commitment is not worth much more than the paper that the organization's leaders will sign, and the risk that Hamas and its allies will take over the West Bank is tangible.

Such a scenario could lead to the IDF entering Palestinian cities and the occupation of the West Bank - as it did in the second intifada. This is a scenario that is causing a stir among most of the Palestinian public in Judea and Samaria. 

Therefore, the chief made sure to provide quite a few exit points from that seemingly democratic and romantic procedure.

For example, it was decided that the heads of the Palestinian factions would meet in the coming weeks in Cairo to discuss the mechanism of the election process for the Palestinian parliament, the presidency and the Palestinian National Council in the PLO.

From past experience in the internal Palestinian reconciliation process, such discussions held in Cairo are likely to fail miserably.

In such a case, Abu Mazen will be able to present to the Palestinian public, the European Union and the Biden administration Hamas as guilty of thwarting the election process, as it has done in all previous attempts at reconciliation. 

The issue of East Jerusalem

Another point of departure that has been used in the past by Abu Mazen as an excuse for not holding elections to Palestinian national institutions is the issue of voting in East Jerusalem - a move that Israel will vehemently oppose.

It is not for nothing that it was emphasized in the presidential order published that the gradual election process is expected to take place apart from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in East Jerusalem as well.

The expected opposition from Israel will help Abu Mazen excuse the Americans and the international community that he tried, acted, and even led to broad national agreement among all Palestinian factions - but the Israeli occupation of East Jerusalem prevents any attempt at a democratic process among the Palestinians.

He will argue that without the right to vote of the Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem - there is no point in holding elections, and the one to come to with complaints is Israel and not the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah.

Another dilemma facing Abu Mazen is whether to allow the election of supporters of Muhammad Dahlan, who is close to Egyptian President al-Sisi.

Thanks to the large sum of money poured on Dahlan Patronio in the Persian Gulf, he enjoys widespread sympathy and support in refugee camps in the West Bank and even in the Gaza Strip.