Strengthen security measures in Washington 4:39
(CNN) -
The United States Capitol is surrounded by fences and troops amid fears that the January 6 riots could generate violence this weekend and ahead of Wednesday's inauguration.
But experts worry that the real threat may be what triggered the attack in the long run.
"Tomorrow's plots are literally brewing right now," Oren Segal, vice president of the Anti-Defamation League Center on Extremism, told CNN.
The experts shared the growing concern about the talk that is shared between people who feel harmed by those in power, by the political system and by Big Tech.
LOOK: ANALYSIS |
The 15 most notable lies of Donald Trump's presidency
They are also concerned that the number of potentially violent extremists is on the rise.
Social media giants sanctioned President Donald Trump and others for fear their posts would continue to provoke violence, which experts say has put a sympathetic and growing audience at risk of radicalization.
advertising
Some who had communicated through Facebook, Twitter or even Parler are now on other platforms.
These include Telegram, where extremist and white supremacist channels have existed and spewed hatred for years on largely unmoderated channels until just days ago.
On many of these channels, mass murderers, tactical instructions, and quickly spreading vile and disturbing radicalizing content are frequently praised.
"Our moderators review an increased number of reports related to public postings with calls for violence, which are expressly prohibited by our Terms of Service," Telegram spokesman Remi Vaughn told CNN in a statement Wednesday.
Vaughn added: "We welcome peaceful discussions and peaceful protests, but we routinely remove publicly available content that contains direct calls for violence."
The search for 'fresh blood'
Trump supporters clash with police and security forces while pushing barricades to storm the U.S. Capitol on January 6.
Segal sees the attack on the Capitol as a pivotal moment and says it will have a major impact, even more than the nation's historically largest catalysts for major anti-government activity.
"It's not Waco, it's not Ruby Ridge, this is bigger than that," Segal explains, comparing January 6 to past events that sparked calls to action and inspired a deeper mistrust and sometimes hatred against government.
"This affects more people."
MORE: Pence was closer to pro-Trump mob during Capitol attack than previously thought, The Washington Post reports
Common messages on public and private chats are about conspiring to "take America back" or unite against alleged censorship, according to Angelo Carusone, president and CEO of Media Matters for America.
Carusone and his team have tracked down extremist language and posted a variety of media scenarios.
"We saw these massive migrations from traditional platforms like Twitter and Facebook to an increase in activity on Parler, and then a secondary increase in activity on platforms like Telegram as these middle groups began to accumulate redundancy in their communications," he says.
"And that meant fresh blood," says Carusone.
Fringe spaces online now see far-right figures, hateful supremacists and racists who have clamored for civil war, mingled with QAnon conspirators and ardent supporters of President Trump who have listened to him for years and believe their elections were stolen.
Many are figuring out what to do next and how to compose their messages.
In a chat focused on neo-Nazis, one member asked for language restraint to avoid alienating newcomers, Carusone said.
Disruptive content alone is not enough
The FBI noted in a statement to CNN that while some of the content may be disturbing, authorities cannot act on it alone.
“The FBI cannot open an investigation without a threat of violence or alleged criminal activity.
However, when that language becomes a call for violence or criminal activity, the FBI can launch an investigative activity, "the agency explained.
Researchers could face a more difficult task of finding some people who have been removed from the larger platforms.
"It is increasingly important to know where they are going, especially if they are moving more and more behind the veil," Carusone said.
"If you lose them completely, you lose that flow of information, you lose the ability to identify those indicators, which means that it is more difficult to prevent the damage."
They install barbed wire over a security fence in preparation for the January 20 inauguration.
Prevention efforts must go beyond simple barricades and agents, Carusone said.
"Actually, it is the mechanisms that are radicalizing these individuals," says Carusone.
“It is the algorithms that are helping to connect people.
It is misinformation ».
None of the protests this weekend or on Inauguration Day will feature an actual Trump rally.
Experts say that is a good sign, along with the increased police presence in Washington.
In many messaging apps and forums, some are calling for a boycott of events this weekend and on inauguration day.
Michael Edison Hayden, lead investigative reporter and spokesperson for the Southern Poverty Law Center, says high-profile names and podcasters Mike Peinovich and Nick Fuentes have told their supporters not to go to rallies.
The ADL says that white supremacist Peinovich, known as Mike Enoch, and right-wing Fuentes, have joined voices of discontent for years.
While there are still some worrying messages, Hayden says he believes the likelihood of violence in Washington is not as high as it was on January 6, when there was a lot of online chatter, a major political event in the certification of an election and a rally. of Trump.
Federal authorities are also tracking dozens of people raising potential violence concerns who may come to Washington for events related to the inauguration, according to a source informed about intelligence shared between federal and local law enforcement.
MORE: Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner Face a Cold New Post-Insurrection Reality
Experts worry that some people will turn to their state Capitols to express their anger.
Hayden says that publications of government coordinates and maps have been posted online.
The FBI has received information indicating that "armed protests" are planned in all 50 state capitols in the days leading up to the change of command, according to an internal bulletin obtained by CNN earlier this week.
FBI alerts for armed protests before inauguration 4:11
What could happen next?
A major concern for experts tracking hate and extremism online?
What can happen after this weekend and the inauguration?
Segal said the extremists could exercise caution in the coming days, both out of paranoia and knowing they are being watched.
"It is not before the inauguration that we should worry that they try to start another civil war, it is after," Segal told CNN.
Segal finds it helpful to look at the situation in Michigan last spring when thinking about how things might unfold after the attack on the Capitol.
"The reopening protests ended up resulting in part in an attempted kidnapping of the governor," Segal explains.
Armed protesters on the steps of the Michigan State Capitol in Lansing, demanding business reopening last year.
Trump was part of that too.
She repeatedly criticized Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for her covid-19 restrictions before and after the news of the plot against her.
Experts note that in the protests against his measures, there was also cross-pollination of people who came forward: self-proclaimed militiamen, anarchists, people with anti-government and anti-vaccine beliefs.
Now, look at those existing complaints and add lies about the election theft and the Capitol attack.
That kind of kinetic energy is hard to stop, experts fear.
Heading 'to a circular saw'
Extremism experts agree on several obvious points about how we got here and where we are going.
The United States is in the midst of a kind of massive radicalization.
The one who started the fire was not Trump, they say;
he just threw gasoline on the flames.
Seeing Biden taken over, a black and South Asian woman as her vice president, and then realizing that Trump is gone, will fan the flames for those who will falsely claim that the Biden government is illegitimate, Segal warns.
The inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden and Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris will be very different than in years past.
Carusone says it is just the beginning of the country heading "towards a circular saw" due to division, extremist actions and political rhetoric.
"Trump has wrapped the narrative as a gift for the next four years," Segal explains.
Experts worry that a false sense of security will emerge if the country passes the inauguration without violence.
But what happens when the barricades are removed?
When will the National Guard troops leave?
When do technology platforms, the general public, and the media turn their attention to other issues?
MORE: Justice Department Retracts Claim That Capitol Rioters Wanted To "Capture And Kill" Officials
The threat will remain, experts say.
"All these new people joining these communities create a new opportunity to expand the ranks," Carusone said.
“There will be a lot of new people… organized and exposed to a series of recipes that will ultimately lead us back to the same place… before the attack on the Capitol.
Except in that case, there will be more.
CNN's Josh Campbell, Christina Carrega, Evan Perez, Geneva Sands, and Whitney Wild contributed to this report.
Extremists