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Downtown Hanover early Monday morning: is the nationwide curfew coming?
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Julian Stratenschulte / dpa
Great Britain should be a warning to the Germans.
The experts make this clear on Monday evening in the meeting with the Chancellery and the heads of government of the countries.
Experts are invited, most of whom argue for a hard lockdown (read a comment on the selection of experts here).
For example Rolf Apweiler, molecular biologist and director of the European Bioinformatics Institute in England.
He has already recommended the French President Emmanuel Macron to take a tough defense against the British virus mutation.
Apweiler has now stated in the switch for SPIEGEL information that the new virus mutation B.1.1.7.
increased by 200 to 400 percent during the national lockdown in November, and it went unnoticed.
Other variants would have decreased by around 50 percent in the same period.
The problem: B.1.1.7.
is probably much more contagious than the mutations that have been common to date.
The new variant creates a six to eight times higher growth in the number of cases per month than others, said Apweiler, according to one participant.
His recommendation to those responsible is clear: In order to reduce the number of infections quickly, a sharp lockdown is needed.
This should include school closings and a home office obligation.
In addition, vaccination against the corona virus should be carried out as quickly and as much as possible.
The capacities for sequencing, i.e. the targeted detection of virus mutations, would have to be expanded quickly.
In addition to Apweiler, the virologist Melanie Brinkmann from the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research is in the group, who confirmed his demands, as SPIEGEL learned from participants.
Brinkmann is a supporter of the # ZeroCovid campaign, a radical corona strategy with particularly drastic measures.
"It's like the virus has put on a rocket suit again"
With his presentation, Apweiler showed how quickly you can lose control of the spread, Brinkmann told the rulers, according to a participant.
It is now the most critical moment in the pandemic.
It is a natural law that the new variant of the virus prevails against the others - and it has already arrived in Germany.
There is a risk that 2021 will be worse than 2020 if you don't act now.
"It is as if the virus has put on a rocket suit again," said Brinkmann, according to one participant.
But you know what to do - "namely what we did in spring 2020," she is quoted as saying.
An incidence of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days - the goal set by the federal and state governments, from which the national average is far away - is illusory, said Brinkmann according to one participant.
The population must be convinced "that we have to go to zero".
Because a 50s incidence is a middle ground that will be more painful in the long run than a radical lockdown.
Other experts also warned in the group against a mere extension of the current shutdown.
If the population continues to restrict itself as it did at the beginning of January, a model calculation suggests that the number of infections will continue to decline, according to a paper on which the physicist and mobility expert Kai Nagel was involved.
But the experience from spring 2020 shows that the population is more likely to return to normal mobility patterns.
This must be avoided at all costs, possibly also by means of new restrictions.
The report for the Federal Ministry of Education from January 15 was also discussed in the group on Monday evening.
It recommends an FFP2 mask requirement at the workplace, in a single room or in the home office.
An evening and night curfew is also "a quick and effective measure."
School openings, on the other hand, should only be considered in conjunction with FFP2 masks during class.
The psychology professor Cornelia Betsch from the University of Erfurt warned in the switch according to participant information that the current measures would have to compensate for the additional voluntary measures taken in the first lockdown.
Because despite the good acceptance of the current measures, psychological factors led people to make exceptions, explained Betsch.
She also warned of "pandemic fatigue" and people's loss of confidence in government communications.
The expert therefore proposed a new framing, i.e. a new communication strategy: When fighting a pandemic, people must be made aware of their own interest in a communal, societal solution, Betsch was quoted as saying.
The advice of the experts is likely to meet with mixed feelings among the country leaders.
In the run-up to the decisive discussions, the SPD-led countries in particular had expressed doubts about further tightening, and a radical lockdown was not mentioned in the public statements of the prime ministers.
Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder, who has already issued particularly strict rules in Germany-wide comparison, spoke out against the new rules.
Instead, the other states should take Bavaria as an example, said Söder - which would mean factual tightening in many places.
Among other things, a nationwide FFP2 mask requirement in public transport and shops, curfews and an extensive home office requirement were discussed recently.
Which measures the federal and state governments can agree on, or whether the current shutdown is simply extended, will not be known until after the Prime Minister's Conference on Tuesday afternoon.
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