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Written by: Yuan Shu
2021-01-19 18:47
Last update date: 2021-01-19 18:47
The government announced today (19) the unemployment rate for the new period. The unemployment rate from October to December 2020 increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.6% compared with the previous period. The number of unemployed troops was approximately 246,000, a record of 16. New year high.
A senior personnel consultant pointed out that the unemployment rate is slightly lower than expected, but the situation is severe, and the fourth wave of the epidemic is still fluctuating, I believe that "breaking 7" is inevitable, and it is expected that the data may appear in the next period.
The personnel consultant also pointed out that before and after the Lunar New Year, it is the time for companies to make decisions. It is estimated that this year’s "New Year" is even more sad. "The vaccine will be given after the Lunar New Year. January and February will be the worst time. Many companies can’t stand it. , Will lay off or close down at this time."
According to the latest unemployment rate figures from the Census and Statistics Department, the unemployment rate from October to December 2020 is 6.6%, which is 0.3% higher than the 6.3% in November.
The number of unemployed soldiers has increased from about 244,000 to 245,800, an increase of 1,500.
The underemployment rate remained unchanged during the two periods at 3.4%.
Senior human resource consultant Zhou Qiping.
(Profile picture)
Earlier, Financial Secretary Chen Maobo had warned that the unemployment rate data had a chance to break records. Senior human resources consultant Zhou Qiping said that she originally thought that the figure would soar to 6.8%. The figure is slightly better than expected, but she emphasized that 6.6% is not low at all. "Especially in December alone, it was enough to increase the three-month average figure by 0.3 percentage points. The situation is very bad."
▼The living conditions of residents in the epidemic area of Temple Street on January 18▼
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Zhou Qiping: January and February will be the worst time or there will be a wave of closure
Zhou said that the government’s job protection plan ended in November, and coupled with the fourth wave of the epidemic, many social distancing measures have been tightened again. During Christmas and New Year’s important days, business cannot be done as in previous years. It is a major blow.
She said that around the Lunar New Year, it is time for companies to consider layoffs. It is expected that this year's "New Year" will be even more sad.
According to her analysis, January and February will be the worst moments. In particular, vaccines in Hong Kong will not start to be vaccinated until after the Chinese New Year. "It may take a few months to finish the vaccine, and many companies may close down or lay off employees. When you see hope, you may have to wait as long as 3 to 6 months. After calculating that you will not be able to stay, you will make some business decisions."
▼Social distancing measures will continue until January 20▼
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Unemployment rate may not break SARS high
Zhou Qiping also predicted that the unemployment rate might not rise to the worst level during SARS.
She said that comparing the two epidemics, SARS Hong Kong has no experience in fighting the epidemic, and as a result, there have been many panic-like economic downturns. The current impact of the catering and beauty industries is mainly due to the restriction of operations by the authorities, as long as the epidemic eases If the restrictions are removed, some businesses can be restored.
She said that if the vaccination goes well, the local economy is expected to recover slowly in the third quarter, but I believe it will not be a V-shaped rebound.
Zhou also said that Hong Kong is an export-oriented economy, so it is not that Hong Kong’s epidemic is under control, the economy can fully recover, and it is still subject to the development of the epidemic in peripheral countries and regions.
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COVID-19 unemployment rate