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"Three quarters of the French do not know what the referendum on the climate is"

2021-01-20T12:43:38.940Z


FIGAROVOX / TRIBUNE - The challenges of the referendum for the environment remain largely obscure for many French people, and 40% have not even heard of it yet, as revealed by an IFOP poll presented by Paul Cébille.


Paul Cébille is a research fellow at Ifop, he has notably worked on several studies dealing with the relationship of the French to direct democracy.

It presents the results of an IFOP poll for Depanneo.

While the Council of Ministers of January 20 must adopt the preliminary draft law aimed at including in the Constitution "

the preservation of biodiversity and the environment

" according to the terms of the Citizens' Conference for the climate, an IFOP poll for Depanneo and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation shows that the referendum on the environment has not impressed public opinion, at the risk of being a popular failure.

It reveals for the first time an intention to vote on this ballot.

Read also:

Luc Ferry: "Climate, a useless or liberticidal referendum"

Singular in the history of the institutions of the Fifth Republic by its launching process - the impetus came from the Citizen's Climate Convention and not directly from the president as is usually the case - the referendum for the environment remains largely confidential for many French people, who find it difficult to define precisely the content.

This great lack of knowledge of the project puts it at risk of becoming a real failure, if we are to believe the low participation rate estimated by Ifop.

Indeed, with 36% participation, the referendum on the environment would be among the least mobilized referendums of the Fifth Republic, such as that on the statute of New Caledonia in 1988 (36.9% participation) and the referendum on the quinquennium of 2000 (30.2%).

One of the mechanisms ensuring the success of a referendum is the care given to informing citizens but also to the idea that the vote is important and will involve significant changes.

Marked by an inaudible campaign and a broad consensus on the passage to the five-year term, the latter saw at the time its participation - according to estimates made at the time by the FIFG - go from 42% in June 2000 to 36% at the start September, then barely 30% on election day.

If the environmental referendum followed this trend, the final turnout would be far too low not to tarnish the outcome.

But whose fault is it?

No doubt in the first place to the timid communication on the part of the government when the referendum was announced in mid-December.

Indeed, one of the mechanisms ensuring the success of a referendum is the care given to informing citizens but also to the idea that the vote is important and will involve significant changes.

For the moment, public debate has not been characterized by these two imperatives, and the interests of citizens are affected.

Read also:

The climate fight in the Constitution: first step towards a referendum

The fault also probably with the idea - it, conversely, well diffused - that this referendum would be a manipulation on the part of the President of the Republic.

When the election was announced, the initiative was very quickly presented by the left-wing opposition as a "

political maneuver

" (Generation · s.), Purely "

cynical

" (PS), aimed above all at "

hiding the forest. renunciations…

”(EELV).

A message received perfectly by the French who are almost two thirds (64%) to think that the referendum on the environment is above all "

a political maneuver not really seeking to advance the issue of the environment

", a marker of the political distrust of the French vis-à-vis the President of the Republic.

The constitutional reform mentioned at this stage would have the support of nearly eight out of ten voters, whether on the left or on the right.

Original sin of the referendum in France, the presidential initiative of this ballot - and the focus it carries on his person rather than on the subject of the vote - seems to have completely neutralized the interest of having mobilized a Citizen's Convention of French drawn by lot in order to legitimize its proposals.

The idea that a proposal made by citizens could convince all citizens of its desirability did not, at first glance, work as intended.

However, several positive signals come to save the referendum project, in any case its opportunity.

If the French are perfectly aware of the risk of political manipulation behind this election, they know how to break away from it to support the idea, at 61%, that it remains an important symbol to show France's commitment to the campaign. ´environment, and more than half that the environment is sufficiently debated in society for a referendum to be relevant to resolve this issue.

Read also:

The climate bill is finalized and will be examined in March

Above all, the constitutional reform mentioned at this stage would have the support of nearly eight out of ten voters, whether on the left or on the right (even if a little less on the right than on the left).

Among the indicators allowing a clear reading of the intention to vote in favor of the reform, it is obviously the relationship to ecology that best determines this trend.

Thus, 91% of people who identify as “

very environmentalists

” say they want to vote Yes, against 51% among those rejecting any environmental feeling.

Other reading lines emerge elsewhere, notably the generational factor, on which the age categories most aware of ecological issues are particularly favorable to the reform (95% of young people aged 18 to 24 say they want to vote for reform, compared to 76% of people aged 65 and over).

In the last referendum held in France on the European Constitutional Treaty, the end result had little to do with the state of mind of public opinion at the start of the campaign.

Finally also, we note the female tendency of the vote “

For reform

” - 90% of them, against 71% of men - marker of social assignment to what is called “

care

” which refers to an education. turned towards attention to others and which translates politically into a greater environmental sensitivity, personified by the image of "

Mother Nature

".

Finally, it is important to remember that the French have not yet looked into the referendum on the environment, that the campaign debate has not even started and that therefore they know relatively little about its supporters. and outs.

This may explain why voters are overwhelmingly in favor of constitutional reform.

Read also:

The climate bill is "finalized"

During the last referendum organized in France on the European constitutional treaty, the final result had little to do with the state of mind of the public at the start of the campaign, largely in favor of "

Yes

", as new issues arose during the campaign to reverse voting intentions in favor of "

No

".

The French may not yet have given their last word on the environment.

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2021-01-20

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