Editor's Note:
Jorge G. Castañeda is a CNN contributor.
He was Mexico's Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2000 to 2003. He is currently a professor at New York University and his most recent book, “America Through Foreign Eyes,” was published by Oxford University Press in 2020.
(CNN Spanish) -
The new president of the United States and the president of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, practically do not know each other.
They met once, in 2012, when Biden, then vice president, traveled to Mexico to meet with the three candidates for the country's presidency.
According to press versions of the time, as well as subsequent leaks, the meetings were formal, courteous and lacking in substance.
Already in 2020, the traditional meeting between the US president-elect and the acting president of Mexico, or vice versa, this time did not take place.
Therefore, now there will be no way to invent common places or nonsense such as "the spirit of ..." some meeting place, "good chemistry" or fabricated identities (the most recent case, between AMLO and Trump in July 2018, via letter ).
The relationship between the two leaders and between the two governments will rest on the substantive definitions of both, and on the real interests of both nations.
This always happens in the long run, but sometimes circumstances allow a personal approach that this time there was not.
In my opinion, there are reasons to fear that this relationship starts off on the wrong foot and that it will tend to be more strained than in the past.
Even if we put aside AMLO's offenses towards Biden in recent months - traveling to Washington to support Trump in the deeds, not congratulating him on his triumph until the last minute, not condemning the assault on the Capitol, and yes condemning the exile Trump from Twitter and Facebook, or offer Julian Assange asylum - the new US president will take office amid a crisis in bilateral relations.
As is well known, former Mexican Defense Secretary Salvador Cienfuegos was arrested in Los Angeles in October.
For reasons that remain incomprehensible, he was returned to Mexico in November, supposedly to be tried there.
A few days ago, the Mexican authorities exonerated him completely, and López Obrador accused the DEA and other US agencies of having “fabricated” evidence.
He immediately made public the file sent to Mexico by the Department of Justice on Cienfuegos, violating, according to said department, the Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty.
The Trump administration responded with a grumpy and stern midnight statement;
we are in those.
In addition, as collateral damage in the Cienfuegos case, the Mexican Congress approved in December a law that imposes on foreign agents -many of them from the United States- a series of acts, commitments and restrictions that, if applied, would almost make it impossible for them to operate. job.
Fortunately, these types of laws are rarely enforced in Mexico, so Washington has little to fear.
All of this will have to be repaired.
It is possible, but not easy.
Agreements that are satisfactory for both parties will have to be found, which is going to be increasingly difficult in Mexico, given the increasing militarization of the State and the concomitant greater dependence of López Obrador on the Army.
The budget and military responsibilities have increased dramatically in his two years in office.
Furthermore, the resolution of this security crisis will have to occur in an adverse context, due to two additional considerations.
The number of arrests of Mexicans and Central Americans on the southern border of the United States reached the highest level for an October since 2005.
A caravan that began with more than 7,000 Hondurans to Mexico and the United States is already underway.
More than 60,000 Central Americans and citizens of other countries are crowded together in various cities on the northern border of Mexico, awaiting their hearing to request asylum in the United States.
Biden wants to change all this, but it will not be easy, nor fast.
Second, Biden responds to a different electoral base than Trump's.
For his government, causes such as human rights, the fight against climate change, union rights and the strengthening of unions in the United States and Mexico, a substantive immigration reform, and at the same time the protection of American investors, are very important. close to the heart of that base.
You won't be able to keep all of your promises, but you will try and in some cases, you will be successful.
By having it, he will clash from time to time with Mexico and AMLO, promoters of very different agendas.
Biden is going to logically focus on his internal agenda.
Externally, Mexico may not occupy a priority place at the beginning, unless a new crisis breaks out, greater than that of Cienfuegos.
And López Obrador will continue to be interested in the United States only to the extent that the giant neighbor can hinder his internal agenda.
Hopefully, these two relative indifferences can contribute to some relaxation.
Or they can generate surprises, as is often the case in the relationship between Mexico and the United States.
