Global disorder is getting worse.
Return of the logics of confrontation, hybrid threats… These dark trends were already included in the
"strategic review"
developed at the start of the five-year term which identified three main threats: terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and hybrid attacks.
But three years and a global pandemic later, everything has worsened, according to the
"update"
of the document presented Thursday by the Minister of the Armed Forces Florence Parly.
"The pandemic has represented a major upheaval for societies and economies, deepening the divisions and the balance of power, causing new tensions on resources and above all catalyzing threats"
, she notes.
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The tone is alarmist.
"In the absence of an appropriate response from the Europeans, this context of instability brings new risks to the gates of Europe, and raises the specter of a strategic downgrading"
, warns the document.
The economic crisis also raises fears of a narrowing of ambitions in the field of defense, like the European defense fund endowed with only 7 billion euros in the multiannual financial framework of the EU, below French expectations.
"The Europeans, if they sharply reduced their budgets again, would deal a fatal blow to the most fragile military apparatuses as well as to their capacity for collective action"
, warns the Ministry of the Armed Forces.
Due to a lack of investment in certain technologies, such as digital or artificial intelligence, European armies are threatened with withdrawal, dependence, loss of sovereignty.
"Tomorrow, we would be militarily confined"
without being able to project forces, we warn in the entourage of the minister.
"The risk of an irremediable downgrading, even of an erasure of the European continent in world affairs, can no longer be ruled out today"
, we read in the strategic document.
“In the absence of national or European suppliers and sufficient investments, new very critical dependencies will develop until they become irreversible.
"
Beyond the warning, Paris hopes to generate a reaction.
Emmanuel Macron has not abandoned his objectives in terms of Europe of defense within NATO.
It also aims to create strategic industrial sectors.
"In the absence of national or European suppliers and sufficient investments, new very critical dependencies will develop until they become irreversible"
, it is said.
The coronavirus crisis has also led the armies to reflect on their missions.
"The implementation of a strategic" protection-resilience "function
now asserts itself as essential," says the ministry.
“Building resilience involves reconsidering certain support dependencies.
Faced with a crisis that affects flows, the supply of the armed forces cannot depend solely on a logic of efficiency, inspired by a model of private companies.
It is essential to have strategic stocks and to accept the associated additional costs ”
, we add.
“What is true in the light of the Covid-19 crisis would also be true in the context of a surprise of any other nature (digital or environmental), and a fortiori in the context of a high-intensity commitment that could potentially threaten the national territory ”
, we warn.
Development of hybrid threats
In this panorama of an increasingly dangerous world, France recalls Russia's strategic intimidation posture, the doubling of the Chinese defense budget since 2012 or the renewed boldness of regional powers like Turkey.
The update of the strategic review also insists on the development of hybrid threats: recourse to non-state armed groups, unfriendly practices in exo-atmospheric space, cyberattacks, etc. Certain practices
“target”
more the citizens themselves to
“weaken the nation, ”
the ministry said.
“At the lower end of the spectrum (of hybrid threats), the increasing digitization of developed societies and the resulting interconnection of data increase their vulnerability to information manipulation, a practice contrary to democratic values.
More or less discreet, the work of disinformation, multiplied by hyperconnectivity and artificial intelligence, today leads to a form of deaf subversion, which aims to increase the internal tensions of the target society, to influence it and foster political paralysis by sowing confusion, ”
the document reads.
"The information field, invested by digital means, has become a key part of conflicts, affecting forces, institutions and populations"
, one adds.
Delivered in the home straight of the five-year term, this
“update”
aims first of all to confirm the choices made in 2017, particularly budgetary ones. It should also fuel a public debate. The Head of State Emmanuel Macron asked the government to make a
"progress report"
with Parliament on the 2019-2025 military programming law. This review clause was foreseen. And for now, the commitments of the LPM are maintained, that is to say a continuous increase in the budget: + 1.7 billion euros for 2021.
"We are going to accelerate, strengthen, strengthen our priorities"
, declared Florence Parly during her greeting speech to the armies on Thursday morning, without saying precisely whether more resources should be devoted to defense issues. But she mentioned the strengthening of intelligence resources as well as offensive and defensive capacities in the cyber and digital fields.