The novel corona mutations are putting politicians on alert.
Their increased infectiousness is particularly problematic.
What is the threat if the variant continues to spread?
The cases of mutated corona variants are increasing in Germany.
The new versions of the virus * are not necessarily more dangerous, but they are more contagious.
A virologist is now calculating what threatens Germany if it spreads the mutation.
Hamburg - The
corona situation
in Germany seems to be easing slightly at the moment.
The
seven-day incidence
is declining and the number of
reproductions
is below the critical value of 1. Nonetheless, there is still no reason for recklessness, said
Angela Merkel
on Thursday (January 21)
*.
The Chancellor is particularly
concerned about the
virus mutations
that have recently emerged
.
These are also the reason for the ongoing extension of the measures.
Corona mutations: About the same risk, but more contagious - Ireland and Portugal badly affected
Epidemiologists point out that it is not uncommon for a virus to change.
The genetic makeup of a virus is constantly evolving.
"Mutations arise naturally with the number of multiplication cycles in the course of the spread of viruses," explains the
Berlin Charité
.
In the case of the previously known variants of SARS-CoV-2 *, research currently assumes that they are similarly dangerous as the original version, but at the same time also far more contagious.
In Ireland and Portugal there has recently been
a rapid increase in the number of infections
, mainly due to
corona mutations
.
In Portugal in particular, the situation is worsening.
After the EU country reported a new record number of corona cases on Wednesday, 20 percent of which can be traced back to a mutation that first appeared in Great Britain, the health system is on the brink of collapse.
Corona mutations: Cases in Germany are increasing - not just because of travel
The federal government is accordingly concerned that the mutation will also spread in Germany.
The intensified search for the new Corona variants resulted in more hits.
The
Robert Koch Institute
* has so far (as of January 21, 12 a.m.) received 28 evidence of the
British variant B.1.1.7
from seven federal states, as a spokeswoman announced on Thursday.
The
RKI was
also
aware of
17 cases from
Hamburg
,
North Rhine-Westphalia
and
Baden-Württemberg
for the variant, which initially spread widely in South Africa
.
In
Berlin
, the British variant was registered in nine cases.
As the
Humboldt-Klinikum
explained, the infections are not due to travel as most of the previously known cases.
This could indicate that the new version has long since arrived in Germany.
Even if there is no reliable data on this yet.
+
Corona mutations have recently come into focus worldwide.
The first cases also occurred in France.
As here at the University Hospital in Marseille, more and more samples are being examined for the new variant.
© Daniel Cole / AP / dpa
Corona mutations: New variants make "a huge difference in the spread"
Meanwhile, it seems problematic that in Germany not every infected person is examined for the exact virus variant.
In 2020, just every 900th positive corona test * was subjected to a genetic make-up analysis, which provides conclusions about changes.
In the UK, for example, this was the case for every 20th test.
It is therefore difficult to estimate how widespread the mutation * is in the country.
But what threatens if the new version continues rampant in the country?
A virologist does the math - and draws a worrying scenario.
In an interview with
Die
Welt
,
Adam Grundhoff
, virologist at the Heinrich Pette Institute for Experimental Virology in Hamburg,
explained
the imminent dangers of the new situation.
Research currently suspects that the new variant is about 1.5 times more infectious than the original version.
According to Grundhoff, this makes "a huge difference in the spread."
Corona mutations: the number of reproductions in Germany is currently below 1
Because "there is an exponential growth that you have to do with the virus".
Since an infected person can infect several people, it happens within a very short time
to multiply the number of cases of infection.
The number of corona cases is growing more and more.
A simple example: If every person infected with corona infects two more, first four, then eight, then 16, then 32 more are infected.
The growth rises flat at the beginning, but then penetrates very quickly into very high spheres.
Accordingly, the so-called
reproduction number
* (= R-value) once again becomes the decisive parameter.
It indicates how many people an infected person infects on average.
If the
R value is
constantly below 1, the infection rate levels off.
The current weekly average is 0.87 - a positive development.
But what happens if the virus
spreads faster
due to the higher infection rate of the
mutations
?
+
Adam Grundhoff in an interview with “Welt”.
© Screenshot welt.de
Corona mutations: due to higher infectivity - virologist warns of an increase in incidence of "5,000 percent"
Grundhoff calculates: "If we
multiply
the current number of
reproductions
by 1.5, then in three months we will be at an
incidence of
around 5000 percent
instead of
50 percent of what we have now." Currently it is
seven -Day incidence
in Germany 119.0 cases per 100,000 population (as of January 21, 12 a.m.).
Since the
R-value was
last below 1, the
incidence has also
decreased.
In order to prevent the number of infections from skyrocketing again, it makes perfect sense, according to Grundhoff, "to tighten the measures." It is a "precautionary measure because the risk is very high".
The corona mutation will probably keep Germany busy for a little longer.
(as) * Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital network
