If the bloc parties do not unite, they will reach the finish line with votes that will be wasted on parties that do not pass the blocking percentage. • On the right, things are clearer • Interpretation
It seems that the faltering negotiations between the left-wing bloc parties, for the purpose of unification towards the closing of the submission of the lists next week, are mainly due to a lack of leadership in the camp.
MK Michaeli announced the departure of the Labor Party from the government
When no one wants to allow any of the party leaders to lead, the splits and multiplicity of parties remain.
Things can still change at the last minute, but even now it can probably be determined that the left bloc will stabilize at the finish line with parties that fall along the way, or with votes wasted on parties that do not pass the blocking percentage.
In the right-wing bloc, things seem clearer.
As in the previous time, this time too the Prime Minister will roll up his sleeves and lay his hands deep on what is happening in the Religious Zionist Party, to ensure that this time the national camp arrives prepared and ready for the elections in the best possible way.
In other words: the inclusion of Itamar Ben Gvir of Jewish power on the united right-wing list.
If he succeeds, Netanyahu will only have to make sure that his right and religious Zionism pass the blocking percentage.
If it succeeds, it will be a correction to the first election campaign of 2019, in which the prime minister lost a dream coalition just because of 1,400 votes that were missing to the right, which fell below the blocking percentage due to an overly aggressive drinking campaign led by the Likud.
An asterisk should be added to the clear picture of the right-wing bloc: an option discussed at the beginning of the election campaign, of a possible union between the right and a new hope, may emerge at the last minute due to the large decline in the number of seats of both parties.
This is still a scenario whose chances are slim.
On the left the picture is much more complex.
Despite the mini-parties that have sprung up since the announcement of the election as mushrooms after the rain, no one seems to be bothering to put the lines together and bring a more sensible and efficient map.
Merav Michaeli, who was elected leader of the Labor Party, is trying to put Ron Huldai under her and run for one list, but is not currently aiming higher, for another connection, say with Yesh Atid.
Yair Lapid will be willing to connect with almost anyone who is willing to come, provided of course that he himself will be at the top of the list and at the head of the camp.
This leaves many parties that have split up, and will cause a waste of thousands of votes, and perhaps more: Ofer Shelach, Yaron Zelicha, Bnei Gantz, Danny Yatom, Boogie Ya'alon.
A partial list.
Starting with the closing of the lists next week, the political picture will be much clearer and clearer.
The balance of power will take shape, and only one question will remain in the air until the results of the truth.
The same question that has been asked in all three recent elections: Will Netanyahu succeed this time in gaining 61 seats from the right-wing coalition - or not again.
This time the conditions are more dangerous for him.
An alternative coalition is just one of them.
Another election campaign, during which Bnei Gantz may replace him in office, seems more threatening, in case Gantz is indeed in the next Knesset.