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Ecuador faces elections marked by indecision and a probable second round

2021-01-26T23:40:42.547Z


Andrés Arauz, the candidate sponsored by former President Correa, and the conservative Guillermo Lasso are emerging as favorites in the October 7 presidential elections


The conservative candidate, Guillermo Lasso, during a caravan in Guayaquil, on January 20 SANTIAGO ARCOS / Reuters

There are 15 men and one woman in Ecuador who see themselves occupying the presidential seat starting in May, when Lenín Moreno handed over power to his successor.

The certainty with which the 16 presidential candidates claim to be in office or at least in the second round of elections contrasts with polls in which there are only two candidates with real aspirations –Andrés Arauz, sponsored by Correa, and the conservative Guillermo Lasso– , and with the general shrug of the shoulders of the people when asked who is going to vote this February 7.

In two Sundays, there will be a first call to the polls from which only a risky omen can be drawn: it is very likely that there will be a second round because no candidate has a sufficient advantage.

The null, white or undecided vote has been throughout the campaign and continues to be one of the three majority options and in some opinion samples, even the one preferred by the majority of Ecuadorian voters.

The last time that a president won the elections in the Andean country in the first round was in 2013 when Rafael Correa renewed his mandate for another four years and EL PAÍS then declared that he had swept the elections with 57% of the votes.

To avoid going to the second round on April 11, one of the pairs has to reach at least 40% and, at the same time, obtain a difference with the second of 10%.

None of the 16 applicants, according to the latest January polls by Cedatos, Market and Pulso Ciudadano, is even close.

Andrés Arauz, who walks next to a cardboard Correa figure made to scale on his promotional tours through cities and towns in Ecuador, leads in two out of three polls.

Harvest between 15%, the lowest, and 28.64%, the highest.

His main presidential opponent is Guillermo Lasso, of the CREO movement, who for these elections formed an alliance with the Christian Social Party, which has its stronghold in Guayaquil and has resisted the effect called correísmo.

It raises sympathy in 26% of voters, in the most favorable poll, and in 20.85%, in the least generous.

In all samples, the main rival of each aspiring Carondelet is actually indecision.

In pre-campaign, citizen uncertainty was reflected in half of the voters.

Now, it ranges from 23% to 37% in the top three pollsters.

Such a high figure has never been harvested on a date so close to the elections.

Even so, it is common to hear candidates who do not reach even 1% of the voting intention assure with motivation that they will be in the second round in the face of insistent questions from the press about whether it would have been more strategic to seek alliances or bet on a space in the National Assembly as legislator of a strong bloc instead of splitting the vote among 16 presidential binomials.

Social networks, showcase and exhibition

The limitations to campaign, as a result of the covid-19 pandemic, have transferred much of the attention of the candidates to promote themselves on social networks.

Although the strategy has left them in evidence in some cases, it has also opened a window to applicants who did not have as much propaganda apparatus to make themselves known as Arauz - who has the support and contacts of Correismo - and Lasso, with a patrimonial position comfortable and two experience presidential campaigns.

“You don't have to oversize social networks.

We are importing something that here is a myth: 'You must use social networks to reach millennials'.

But that does not fit our social reality, "asks Pedro Donoso, director of the Icare strategic cabinet and specialist in crisis management and political analysis.

“They believe that given the apathy of youth towards politics, you have to change the envelope to attract interest.

That is a false syllogism that results in warped or stiff candidates as long as they are on TikTok, ”he reiterates.

Xavier Hervas, from the Democratic Left, is one of those who has known how to move on social networks to spread an image of a new politician, of change, modern, feminist and close to young people.

However, this has not been reflected in a shift in voting intention.

Yaku Pérez, candidate of the indigenous movement, would be the third, with the permission of the indecision, in the vote count, according to the same polls.

And he has also sought to refresh his image with dances and scenes of some intimacy on TikTok.

But his videos in his underpants hugging a teddy bear, as well as the live connections of Guillermo Lasso toasting a beer and swearing or the snippets of Andrés Arauz sharing his musical taste for rock from the eighties and nineties have received more mockery in the same social networks as tenths of percentage in the intention to vote.

Source: elparis

All news articles on 2021-01-26

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