The first corona patient in Germany came to the hospital a year ago - and now the virus has turned our lives completely upside down.
How long will Corona continue to torment us?
We asked seven top medical professionals for their assessment.
The first
corona infection
in Germany will be confirmed on January 27, 2019 - it is a man from Bavaria.
Since then, the
coronavirus
has determined
our lives.
Seven top doctors
give an outlook on how the pandemic will shake up the lives of Munich residents.
Munich - The
coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 *
has spread worldwide
from China
.
At the end of December 2019, increased pneumonia occurred in the metropolis of Wuhan.
On January 7, 2020, a novel coronavirus was identified as the cause.
The pathogen name
SARS-CoV-2
(Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2) proposed a panel of experts in February.
One year Corona in Munich
On
January 27, 2019
there was the first confirmed infection in Germany.
In the Starnberg district, a man is infected with corona and is treated at the Schwabing Clinic in Munich *.
Two weeks later, the man from Bavaria is healthy again.
But after a corona year, the pandemic seems to have only really picked up speed.
Here, seven top medical professionals are looking ahead:
"Even in autumn there are still outbreaks"
Professor Dr.
Klaus Stöhr
Rich countries like Germany, where corona vaccines are available, will have vaccinated around 60 percent of their population by the summer.
Even so, there will
still be outbreaks
and high
virus circulations
in the fall
.
The hospitals will continue to be burdened until the end of winter and occasionally also in summer.
Around 30 to 40 percent of Germans will not be vaccinated in autumn either.
That means: There will be many diseases next winter and the
virus will
accompany
us
until the beginning of 2022
.
The most important thing now is
to protect
the
risk groups
and, above all, to vaccinate them to reduce the number of deaths.
If that succeeds, the situation will ease significantly in summer.
On the other hand, Corona is far from over for poor countries that have little or no vaccine.
We know for sure that
pandemics have a beginning and an end
: the latter occurs when everyone has
immunity
;
ideally through a vaccination, but unfortunately in most countries of the world more likely through an infection.
After that, the pandemic virus will remain.
It will be much safer and will continue to circulate as an epidemic virus.
There is
no sterile immunity after Covid-19
or vaccination.
Re-infections will very likely proceed as with the four coronaviruses that are already circulating: mostly mild and as part of the many cold viruses every winter.
Then the question of the need for vaccination will arise again.
Except for influenza, none of the common colds is considered bad enough today to be systematically prevented with vaccinations.
+
The virologist and epidemiologist coordinated the research of the World Health Organization WHO on SARS viruses.
© private
"The UV light will help us"
Prof. Dr.
Ulrike Protzer
The first thing that will help us is the onset of
spring
.
If we manage to get the infection numbers to a moderate level by then, the UV light, which increases with the longer days, will help us to reduce the transmission.
In addition, we should have vaccinated a significant part of the people at risk by then, so that the
summer will hopefully be relaxed
again.
But then it is important to keep up the vaccination activities and not become too careless so that we do
n't have the same disaster again
next autumn
.
I assume the virus will
not
go away
completely.
Presumably the virus will "please" us every year like the flu virus - but just as a flu wave in the winter months, which is annoying, but which we have learned to deal with.
You probably have to
refresh
the
corona vaccination
from
time to time in autumn
, which could then be done together with the flu vaccination.
And hope that
no new corona
or influenza virus will come anytime
soon
.
+
Prof. Dr.
Ulrike Protzer: The virologist at the university clinic on the right of the Isar is advising the Bavarian state government on the Corona crisis.
© Sven Hoppe / dpa
"Silver lining"
Prof. Dr.
Eva Grill
It
is undisputed
that the
pandemic will still occupy us
.
But in these weeks and months we are setting the course as to how much it will occupy and restrict us this year.
If we succeed in reducing the incidence quickly, strongly and sustainably, we will gain a considerable lead - also compared to the new virus variants - until our vaccination strategy is successful.
If the incidences
can be kept
at a
very low level
, that is also a sign for society and the economy to breathe a sigh of relief: There will only
be individual outbreaks
, like in summer 2020, which can then be easily controlled.
We should be aware, however, that the hygiene measures - such as
distance, avoidance of contact and masks
- will
be with us
for a long time
to come.
We should also refrain
from
traveling in the next few months
.
With what we have achieved so far and will continue to do so, I see a silver lining on the horizon.
It is important not to lose courage now, not to give in to the current efforts.
+
Prof. Dr.
Eva Grill: The epidemiologist from the LMU Klinikum sits on the pandemic commission of the German Research Foundation.
© LMU
"New drugs reduce mortality"
Privatdozent Dr.
Christoph Spinner
Even if
herd immunity
will hopefully be achieved
in around two thirds of the population
through
vaccinations by the
end of summer 2021
,
sporadic Sars-CoV-2 outbreaks will
occur
again and again
.
Clinical treatment will therefore continue to be necessary,
particularly in
people with risk factors
for a
severe course
who are either not vaccinated or could not be vaccinated.
In the future, hospitals must also be prepared to be able to examine patients for Sars-CoV-2 infections and to offer care in both normal and intensive care units.
The vaccinations provide an opportunity to protect themselves, especially for people who are at increased risk of a severe course.
It will be possible to offer more targeted therapies.
In the early phase of the infection, antiviral therapies - such as
antiviral drugs
or
monoclonal antibodies
- play an important role in preventing the progression of the severe Covid 19 infection.
Drugs that can slow down the excessive immune system, such as
corticosteroids
and others, lower mortality even in later stages of the disease.
Clinical research in infectious diseases and the experience of doctors will also contribute to better management of the disease.
Hopefully, safe and effective vaccination can be quickly offered to everyone in the world.
Although still
is not clear
,
how long the Covid-19 vaccination against the disease really
protects, can be assumed that vaccination must be refreshed to see the full protection.
Research will show whether the vaccination needs to be refreshed annually or rather every few years.
+
Corona expert Privatdozent Dr.
Christoph Spinner, Head of Infectious Diseases at the University Hospital on the right of the Isar.
© private
"More relaxed location in summer"
Professor Dr.
Peter Gottfried Kremsner
We can justifiably hope that the
situation will relax enormously in the summer
- especially since there are still four months left.
The
weather alone will not help us
.
In Africa, for example, it has been shown that the number of infections has increased in some regions despite high temperatures.
Vaccinations
are much more important than the weather
.
Provided there are no major problems with further deliveries, they will bring us tremendous progress.
I'm not afraid that virus mutations will render vaccines ineffective.
And I don't see the risk of
serious side effects
from the
vaccinations after
all.
The vaccinations are a great opportunity.
We already have preparations from
Biontech
and
Moderna
available that achieve an effectiveness of around
95 percent
.
Even experts have been surprised by this high value of the mRNA vaccines.
In contrast,
Astrazeneca's Oxford vaccine
only
achieves
around 60 percent
.
On the one hand, this rate is better than nothing.
If I had been asked last summer what I think of a vaccine that is 60 percent effective, I would have said: Very good, it fits, it's a very good start!
On the other hand, we now have a different situation than in the summer: Now that vaccines with a much higher effectiveness are available, common sense dictates that they should be used.
The prerequisite will be that sufficient quantities of the powerful vaccines can be produced as quickly as possible.
In addition to vaccines from Biontech and Moderna and the Russian Sputnik vaccine, I also hear interesting interim reports on the vaccine from Johnson & Johnson.
With the vaccine from
CureVac
, whose registration study I am leading, we have already been able to include 800 study participants at our university hospital in Tübingen and several thousand worldwide.
The tolerance data looks good, we now have to prove the effectiveness.
I hope to get the vaccine approved in April.
+
Kremsner-Imago.jpg
© Markus Ulmer via www.imago-images.de
"Travel & dining out possible in summer"
Professor Dr.
Clemens Wendtner
Corona will still be with us in 2021
.
But if we all
stick
to the
lockdown rules
for a few more weeks,
observe the other protective measures and get as many people as possible vaccinated, then
hopefully
the
summer will be more relaxed
again.
It is important that we all have a relaxed perspective - including the medical profession and nursing in the clinics.
The
UV light in summer will not make the virus go
away.
But let's think back to last summer.
At that time we had a 7-day incidence of 2.5 per 100,000 population.
It is hard to imagine such low values today, but I do believe that we can achieve them again this summer with an effort.
Then vacation trips, visits to restaurants or eating out or cultural events would be possible again.
Maybe
not without a mask and with a safe distance
- that's the lesson from last summer.
But our everyday life is returning more and more!
One of the keys to this is
vaccinations.
Ms. Merkel said that by the end of September every citizen should be offered a vaccination.
It would be nice if it could really be implemented that way.
Then we would have taken a big step in the pademie fight.
Sars-CoV-2 will very likely become endemic - that is, it will establish itself in our society like a banal cold virus, but it will hardly be severe.
It is important that each individual with a vaccination, if it is available to everyone, makes a contribution to this development.
When it
comes to
vaccination, we already have the
mRNA vaccines
from Moderna and Biontech available.
They work very well with a 95 percent protection factor against severe illness.
AstraZeneca
did not provide quite as high figures for the effectiveness in the registration study, but the effectiveness of a good 60 percent is above the 50 percent threshold that was once required for the corona vaccines.
Unless you get another vaccine, it's better to get the vaccine from AstraZeneca.
Because there is no over-vaccination.
This means that when mRNA vaccines are more readily available again, you could be re-vaccinated at a later point in time.
That would be a bridge for people who are critical of the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
+
Prof. Dr.
Clemens Wendtner, the chief physician of infectious diseases at Munich Klinik Schwabing, is one of the most experienced Covid 19 experts.
© -Munich Clinic / dpa
"A little more normality again"
Dr.
Wolfgang Guggemos
When the
supply of vaccine doses gets
going
better
and funds from several manufacturers are soon available, then hopefully we will experience a little more normality again in the summer.
But a state of
recklessness, like before the pandemic, is a long way off
.
This is also due to the fact that we still do not have a mass-produced drug available that can cure Covid-19.
So far, only
remdesivir has been
approved.
But it could not meet expectations and only help a comparatively few patients.
It is hardly used in daily practice on the Covid 19 wards.
+
Guggemos-Wolfgang.jpg
© SYSTEM
In its statement from the end of November, the WHO even
advised against remdesivir therapy
.
Even with the
drugs
just discussed
based on antibodies
, for which emergency approval is expected for two substances, only a few patient groups with special risks and only in an early phase of the infection will benefit.
In the case of infections diagnosed late and protracted courses, this therapy comes too late according to current knowledge.
For the time being, it will not be possible to use the antibodies on a broad basis.
Therefore,
in the fight against Corona
, we must
above all rely on the vaccinations
and
adhere to
the protective measures
.
Caution
is still necessary, otherwise we can get into a
third corona wave
faster than we would like
.
* tz.de and Merkur.de are part of the Ippen digital network