After the recession, the rebound.
In 2020, the Covid-19 crisis will have plunged the activity of almost all countries.
Good news, however, the decline of the global economy last year was slightly less catastrophic than the IMF (International Monetary Fund) feared.
In its October forecasts, while the epidemic was once again spreading everywhere, the Fund forecast a drop in global GDP of 4.4% in 2020. In its study published Tuesday, it points to the good "
surprises
" often linked to the rebound in private consumption in the third quarter and estimates that the fall was limited to 3.5%.
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In 2021, almost all nations will return to growth.
Overall, the rise in savings could be more marked than expected three months ago, "
thanks to the arrival of vaccines and to the plans for reinforced support in certain large economies
", forecasts the IMF, whose forecasts are obviously to be taken with tweezers as the pandemic situation is changing rapidly.
Global GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% this year, that of developed countries by 4.3% and that of emerging nations by 6.3%.
The rebound is revised upwards in the United States, where GDP is expected to increase by 5.1% instead of 3.1%.
India, which saw its activity plunge by 8% last year, is expected to post growth of 11.5%, forecast IMF experts.
Falling forecast for Great Britain
Conversely, the IMF is reviewing downward the rebound in 2021 of certain states.
Chinese activity, for example, which did better than expected by posting insolent growth of 2.3% last year, should limit its rebound to ... 8.1%.
China has nothing to do with other countries, underlines the IMF, recalling "
the effectiveness of containment measures, massive public investment and support from the public bank
".
For the large countries of the euro zone, the experts of the organization which watches over the world economy are more pessimistic.
Admittedly, the region seems to have limited the damage a little last year (-7.2% rather than -8.3%).
But, in 2021, the rebound, sluggish, will probably not exceed 4.2%.
Italy and Spain, in particular, will lift their heads less quickly than expected.
This will also be the case, to a lesser extent, for Germany (+ 3.5%) and France (+ 5.5%).
Unlike the United States or Japan, which should return to their level of activity from the end of 2019 to the second half of 2021, the euro zone and the United Kingdom will have to wait until at least 2022. These differences are due to "
the difference in behavior of authorities and populations faced with infection, the capacity to adapt to reduced mobility and structural rigidities
”in each country, details the study.
In Europe, Great Britain arouses the least optimism.
Its economy has performed a little worse than expected in 2020 and, in 2021, our neighbor across the Channel is also expected to be below October forecasts.