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Morbidity is not declining, but experts are almost unanimous: the closure must be extended Israel today

2021-01-26T15:56:52.021Z


| In the country Citizens are tired, enforcement is lax and violations are increasing. Prof. Daniel Shepshlowitz The general and close closure has been going on for 12 days, and yet we do not see a significant decrease in the number of people infected with the corona virus that are detected every day. At the same time, the burden on the hospitals continued, and the number of deaths also increased alarmingly.  He


Citizens are tired, enforcement is lax and violations are increasing. Prof. Daniel Shepshlowitz

The general and close closure has been going on for 12 days, and yet we do not see a significant decrease in the number of people infected with the corona virus that are detected every day.

At the same time, the burden on the hospitals continued, and the number of deaths also increased alarmingly. 

Health Minister Edelstein at a discussion in the Constitution Committee: "We will ask for a one-week extension to close" // Photo: Knesset Channel

Against the background of the difficult situation, we examined with the experts whether the State of Israel has used all the tools it has against quarantine, whether there are other ways to deal with the corona virus, and what else can be done to change the reality.

This is also against the background of the widespread spread of the British mutation in the country, which is much more contagious than the original virus that came from China. 

"The quarantine works - but the result is slower because of the British mutation"

Prof. Nadav Davidovich, head of the Ben-Gurion University School of Public Health and a member of the corona government advisory team, explains that the coefficient of infection is declining and therefore the closure is working, but this reality is not yet evident because of the British mutation. Where we will reach as many as 95 percent of those aged 60 and over, and we will carry out a closure where people will follow the guidelines - we will see a decrease in the number of patients.

To do this, we also need to intensify the epidemiological investigations and cut off the chains of infection and insist on this throughout the process. " 

He said, "Even when there is a decline, it does not mean at all that the corona has ended. The virus remains here and needs a gradual and careful exit from the quarantine, unlike in previous times when they released everything and stopped keeping the rules. They must continue to prevent crowds and mass events, and continue to monitor "The public will need to do mass tests to detect any outbreak, and also to carry out studies to cut off the chain of infection at all times." 

"Only maintaining quarantine and increasing vaccines will stop the virus"

Prof. Daniel Shepashlowitz, Deputy Director of the Internal Medicine Department at Ichilov Hospital, currently supports the closure and explains the slowdown in the number of carriers in the British mutation.

"The previous two closures in which there was also no full adherence to all the instructions worked, and we saw a significant decrease in morbidity. This time we see no decrease but a halt, and the difference from the previous closures is the entry of the British mutation into the country. 

Corona Commissioner Prof. Ash: "This may not be the last closure" // Photo: GPO

"What needs to be done now is to continue the closure, because there is a large load in the hospitals. We are far from collapsing, but this load is another weight in addition to treating the common diseases of the people, because the corona did not cause heart disease, diabetes, people with cancer or stroke. It is very important to understand that the hospitals currently still need the closure. "

"At the same time, we need to continue the broad vaccination campaign and vaccinate as many people as possible. Really vaccinate everyone who can be vaccinated against the virus and thus significantly reduce the number of people who get sick and hospitalized and get sick. I guess if people stick to the instructions, they will be vaccinated." "Eventually there will be a decrease in morbidity. But this time the process will be much slower because of the British mutation." 

"Previous closures worked because there were holidays"

Prof. Ronit Calderon-Margalit of the Hebrew University School of Public Health explains that the public is less disciplined in the current closure and there is no holiday that will leave people at home. "Looking at the data and the coefficient of infection, I do not think the British mutation can be blamed for what is happening.

The coefficients of infection do not indicate an outbreak of the virus due to a super-contagious mutation.

Therefore, I am skeptical about this explanation and I unfortunately think that the explanation is much more prosaic and local. "

She said, "In the previous closures there were holidays, Passover and then Yom Kippur and Sukkot. Therefore the public stayed more at home and it was easier to carry out the closure. Once there is no holiday, there is no day that leaves the public at home so the closure is weaker, more people violate it. Significantly, I do not intend to send the YSM police to population centers and instill fear, not for that purpose.

But we really need to check where there are conventions, where there are violations and where to fine them, prevent budgets, exercise the state's authority economically. "

Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2021-01-26

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