Presidential: what were the polls saying in January 2016?

Cold shower for Anne Hidalgo and her supporters at the start of the week.

A Harris Interactive poll published by

L'Opinion

gauged the mayor of Paris at just 6% of presidential voting intentions.

Far behind the leading duo Emmanuel Macron (24%) and Marine Le Pen (26%) and their pursuers Xavier Bertrand (16%) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (11%).

Replica of the Hidalgo camp: this poll, unveiled fifteen months before the election, means nothing since the majority of candidates are, for the moment, only contenders.

What was the situation in January 2016 for the 2017 presidential election?

The Odoxa Institute carried out a similar survey at the time.

• Nothing went as planned

First lesson: nothing went as planned.

At the time, pollsters were considering a candidacy of Nicolas Sarkozy for the right - and therefore his victory in the primary at the end of 2016 - and that of the outgoing socialist president, François Hollande.

In this configuration, Marine Le Pen was given the lead with 28% of the voting intentions, followed by Nicolas Sarkozy (20%) in a handkerchief with François Hollande (19%).

The president of MoDem, François Bayrou came fourth with 13%.

Finally, among these four, only Marine Le Pen was indeed a candidate.

• Macron was already tested, and high

For opponents of these premature polls, the rise of Emmanuel Macron is a good textbook case.

However, the candidacy of the former Minister of the Economy did not come out of nowhere, and was even already tested in the polls in January 2016. The only notable difference: Emmanuel Macron was perceived as the future candidate ... of the Socialist Party !

And the natural heir of François Hollande in case of renunciation of the latter.

This combination qualified Emmanuel Macron (22%) in the second round against Marine Le Pen (28%), and placed him ahead of Nicolas Sarkozy (18%).

On the other hand, faced with a candidacy of Alain Juppé on the right, Emmanuel Macron would have been blocked at the gates of the first round (19%).

At the time, the mayor of Bordeaux was even given in front of Marine Le Pen (32% against 28%), despite the candidacy of centrist François Bayrou (13%).

• Macron already knew the strongest momentum

Among all the candidates tested, Emmanuel Macron was already the one who knew the strongest dynamic.

In the scenario of a candidacy against Nicolas Sarkozy, the socialist minister had gone in one month from 19% to 22% and from 16 to 19% in that against Alain Juppé.

“Macron flies away”

, commented the polling institute.

Early signs ...

• A near-perfect projection of the Macron-Le Pen second round

The pollsters had however got it right on one point.

In the event of a second round between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, the first would have won clearly, with 65% of the votes against 35%.

A score finally close to the final result in May 2017. The candidate of En Marche!

in fact won with 66.10% of the vote against 33.90% for the candidate of the National Rally.

If he would have also beaten Nicolas Sarkozy (64% against 36%), Emmanuel Macron would have failed against Alain Juppé (39% against 61%).