Umpteenth dilemma at the highest level of government.
Faced with epidemic indicators that are not getting better, the executive will have to decide on a new re-containment.
Will it be preventive, as recommended by the Scientific Council, strict as in March or flexible as in October?
Emmanuel Macron still hesitates.
But this time, the President of the Republic fears that the French cannot inject themselves with a new dose of restrictions;
only 40% of them would continue to adhere to these drastic measures, confided a member of the government to
Le Figaro
.
The events in the Netherlands, after three nights of violent riots in the country's major cities, did not help matters, raising fears of a snowball effect on our territory.
"
It would be very embarrassing, both politically and in terms of health and safety,
”warns
a source of internal security
to Le
Figaro
, who however welcomes“
the reassuring lull
”observed during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday among our neighbors.
Read also: Macron facing a high-risk re-containment
In the event of a generalized rebellion, police and gendarmes would indeed be the first to be affected on the ground.
Officials and the military have found that lockdowns and curfews have had
"virtually no effect"
on protests across the country in recent weeks.
In mid-January, rallies for “
the defense of freedoms
” were held in France to protest against the comprehensive security law.
The police had to dismantle an improvised free party in the middle of Paris, while tensions were observed in Nantes.
“
It was quite violent.
We feel that people are angry at the moment,
”worries a source, a member of the Republican Security Companies (CRS).
New gatherings are also planned for Saturday, January 30 and do not reassure the police.
"These demonstrations promise to be a little difficult, we have all the ingredients for a cocktail that can be difficult to control"
, explains Frédéric Lagache, deputy secretary general of the Alliance police nationale union.
The latter fears as of this Saturday regroupings, on the places of assembly, of an "
all protest
" which could encourage excesses.
If he says he has "
no crystal ball
", the trade unionist calls for "
vigilance
".
"
This context of prohibitions, where everyone no longer has a social life, this economic crisis which means that everyone around them has someone in difficulty at the level of their work, could lead to a reaction citizen,
”he says.
According to our information, the French intelligence services recently published notes relating to the effects of health measures and their impact on society and the social risks resulting from them.
"The demonstrations of January 30 are going to be a little difficult, we have all the ingredients for a cocktail which can be difficult to control"
Frédéric Lagache, Deputy Secretary General of the Alliance Police Nationale union
"
Ras-le-bol
"
Where could the revolt come from?
“From the street, from a demonstration, certainly.
This is how we operate in France, ”
analyzes our source of internal security.
The latter is planning a demonstration that goes wrong and could get out of control in several large cities.
“
Culturally, there is still a more tendency to demonstrate violently than in northern Europe,
” said Christophe Rouget, secretary general of the Union of Internal Security Executives.
In the viewfinder, as usual, the ultra-left groups, anarchists or "
antifas
", as well as those of the ultra-right.
"
They would jump at the opportunity, it's in their DNA, they are just waiting for that
", bet a mobile gendarme, whose colleagues are on the bridge during each event, just like the CRS.
Read also: "The riots in the Netherlands could give ideas to young French people"
But the danger, our contacts point out, would reside above all in a generalized uprising, where the legendary “
convergence of struggles
” would allow everyone to show in a more or less violent way, their “
fed up
”.
A real social explosion.
"
There would then be only that to express oneself, which is obviously reprehensible
", indicates Frédéric Lagache.
Christophe Rouget, he would rather see an action led by certain social or socio-professional classes, particularly affected by the crisis.
"
We have already seen it with the farmers who have been able to paralyze the country in the past
", he quotes.
And to add: "
But there could also be a phenomenon of exasperation of the students
".
Civil disobedience
The police are also watching for the proliferation of clandestine acts, from private parties to restaurants that open their back rooms.
The civil disobedience action of a restaurant owner from Nice was also one of the most discussed topics on Twitter on Wednesday evening.
The vast majority of Internet users praised the courage of the entrepreneur.
“
A general movement, coming from social networks, cannot be excluded.
This is how we mobilize by casting a wide net, on Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp then.
The “yellow vests” showed it to us,
”judges a Parisian police source.
For Christophe Rouget, the French have reached their “
limit
” of tolerance in terms of restrictions.
“
The way to police always depends on the social acceptance of the population.
It is a fragile balance that all European countries are forced to take into account,
”he argues.
Read also: "The riots in the Netherlands could give ideas to young French people"
Our sources consider, however, that it is "
unlikely
" that the revolt will come from the suburbs, as in 2005, for more than a fortnight, after the death of two teenagers, Zyed Benna and Bouna Traoré, in Clichy- undergrowth (Seine-Saint-Denis).
"
The health and social crisis is much more serious than these serious but isolated events
", slice a high-ranking police officer.
A CRS is of the same opinion: "
These events are manageable over time whereas, today, we do not really have a vision of what will happen in the coming months
".
“The way to police always depends on the social acceptance of the population.
It is a fragile balance that all European countries are forced to take into account ”
Christophe Rouget, General Secretary of the Union of Internal Security Executives
Anyway, the police say they are "
ready
" to face a potential popular revolt.
Without alarming or opposing the "
suffering
" experienced by a major part of the population, they say they are in "
good operational situation
".
The CRS, ultra-solicited during the "
yellow vests
", are currently mobilized to the tune of forty companies per day, against fifty during these turbulences, at the end of 2018. Grégory Joron, Deputy Secretary General of the SGP Police Unit union FO, wants to be reassuring: “
The CRS are trained to face this kind of situations.
We have a fairly fine territorial network, with units already deployed, ready to intervene everywhere,
”he says.
