"Maybe this weekend, or Monday".
The organization in the coming days of a new exceptional health defense council, to rule on a possible reconfinement, is almost no longer in doubt.
Emmanuel Macron slipped it this Wednesday morning into the secrecy of this tightened body where, like the previous Wednesdays, he decided to procrastinate a little longer.
But not for long, obviously.
“We will not wait another week to decide.
The French now need answers, ”admits a minister, aware that the effects of the curfew no longer seem at this stage to have the expected effects.
"It does not sufficiently slow down" the spread of the virus, government spokesman Gabriel Attal admitted on Wednesday, indicating that "different scenarios" were now being studied: "the maintenance of the current framework", which of his own admission "seems unlikely", "to a very tight confinement".
A new turn of the sanitary screw that could result in a total shutdown of the country, with the schools closed?
Verdict this weekend or, at the latest, at the very beginning of next week, therefore.
VIDEO. Covid-19: "The curfew at 18 ha is relatively effective, other scenarios such as very tight confinement under study"
By then, Emmanuel Macron will have received the results of two eagerly awaited studies: one on the prevalence of the English variant in the positive cases identified in recent days, the other on the effects of the 6 p.m. curfew in force for ten days all over France.
The results could be communicated this Thursday evening, or Friday morning.
"The numbers on the variants could change everything and speed up the process," said a member of the government.
A progression that even seems inevitable in view of the trends observed around the world in recent days, with an English variant which represented 9.4% of cases detected in Ile-de-France between January 11 and 21.
This augurs well for a next "very significant" increase in the number of patients according to the AP-HP.
In order to prepare people's minds for future decisions, Jean Castex will therefore conduct a series of consultations in parallel to study the different scenarios that could lead to a possible reconfinement.
“The president has been working on all the hypotheses for a week.
The difficulty is having to assume a decision in advance, to have it accepted by the French while the contamination plateau is certainly high, but it is not yet rising as specialists predict, ”explains an adviser, speaking "Fairly high level of tension" at the top of the state.
The proof ?
The small pass of arms that opposed this Wednesday morning in the health defense council the supporters of the firm line, in favor of strict confinement like the one we experienced last spring, and those of a more flexible line.
"Nothing, absolutely nothing is decided yet"
Among the latter, the Minister of National Education Jean-Michel Blanquer, his counterpart in Higher Education Frédérique Vidal, and also Roselyne Bachelot (Culture).
"We want consistency and more details in the choices to come", they thundered, recalling "that we reconfigured in the fall because the emergency services had to be saturated, whereas it did not ultimately not been the case ”.
Vidal notably recalled that the universities were partially reopened this week: "So if it is to close everything in a few days, it will be terrible for the students," she worried.
“They were defending their sectors, that's normal,” said one participant.
Political Newsletter
Our analyzes and indiscretions on power
Subscribe to the newsletterAll newsletters
"They are especially fed up that we approach the management of this crisis only under the health aspect, without necessarily taking into account the lives of the people", continues another.
What Bruno Le Maire was added to the discussion by recalling the extremely tense situation among traders.
Suffice to say that Emmanuel Macron has not finished with this puzzle.
“The government is going to have a big communication job in the next few days.
It will be necessary to be a little better than lately ”, ironically a cadre of En Marche, struck by the impression of order and counter-order which prevails for a few days.
But one thing is certain: “Nothing, absolutely nothing is decided yet.
At this stage, no track is privileged ”, insists a relative of the Head of State.
But the countdown has indeed started.
Tick tock, tick tock.