“Hard new world”: luminary analyzes ten reasons for Biden's difficult tenure

A new chapter has started in the USA.

But the world is also different - not least because of China's role: Why Biden's job will be so much more difficult than that of his predecessors.

• Joe Biden became

  the new US President on January 20th.

• However, the Democrat is facing a difficult presidency - partly because of

  China's

  new

  strength

  .

• Graham Allison

  , renowned

  political scientist

  and former US government advisor, names in this analysis the ten greatest challenges for Biden's presidency.

• This article is available for the first time in 

  German

   - it was first published by

  Foreign Policy

  magazine on January 15, 2021 

  .

When

Samuel P. Huntington

and

Warren Demian Manshel

, the founders of

Foreign Policy

, asked me to write for their first edition in 1970, the universities were gnawed by students who feared they would be drafted into battle and potentially into a

pointless war in Vietnam die

.

The central message of my essay was that “No More Vietnams!” Would become a new foreign policy mantra.

While about two million Americans had been sent to battle in Korea in the 1950s and more than 300,000 US soldiers were still trapped in Vietnam when I wrote my essay, I bet there would be nothing like it in the next decade.

What I couldn't imagine, however, was how drastic the drop in deaths in combat would be.

It is estimated that 33,000 Americans died in fighting in Korea and 47,000 in Vietnam.

But since the fall of Saigon in 1975, the total US death toll has been less than 7,500.

My 1970 essay is bursting with youthful overconfidence when it comes to identifying trends and prognoses for the coming decades.

Fifty years later, I realized that my crystal ball is more cloudy than I imagined it to be.

Today the

US is

looking

back

on an

annus horribilis

that

spanned

not just a

pandemic

, but also a

global economic recession

and the most polarizing presidential campaign in memory.

With that in mind, anyone who claims to have confidence in their predictions should be suspect.

Joe Biden succeeds Donald Trump: USA is facing the most complex challenge in its history

It is still possible to add some points together if you look very carefully.

Then,

ten fundamental factors are

revealed

that are likely to determine the

great international actions of the United States in the decades

to come.

Some of these factors stem from the fact that the United States will be a vastly different country in 2021 than it was when it emerged victorious from the Cold War - not to mention when it was one after

World War II created a new world order

.

Other factors reflect the most complex international challenge US policymakers have ever faced: an

emerging China

destined, as former Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew warned, “the greatest actor in the history of the world World ”.

The impact of the

rise of China

on the United States and the

international order of

which Washington was the architect and custodian will be the dominating theme - and not just for the new administration, but as far as the eye can see.

Ultimately, US foreign policy must adapt to

unstoppable technological progress

, for which borders are indifferent and which creates new challenges.

Taken together, these new realities give

new President Joe Biden

a much more difficult hand than many previous US presidents.

1. The USA is more divided than it has been since the civil war

First

, the biggest challenge facing policy makers in the US in 2021 and beyond will be in their own country.

With their

nation as deeply divided

as it has been since the Civil War, what Americans do - or don't do - in their own country will have a greater impact on the world than any act outside their borders.

Unless the country finds ways

to reunite Republican and Democratic supporters, restore

confidence in its democratic institutions, and return to the great American project of equal opportunities for all citizens, the nation will lack the foundation from which to play its role in the The world can play - and it will tumble as it did in the 1850s, 1860s and 1930s.

Fortunately - and perhaps as a coincidence - Americans have just elected a president who understands this challenge not only rationally but also instinctively.

2. US economic power has declined

Second

, the real reason Biden's hand and that of his successors are so difficult to play can best be

illustrated

with

three numbers

: At the

beginning of the Cold War in 1950

, the United States produced

almost half of global GDP

, at the end of the Cold War in 1991 a quarter and

today only a seventh

.

The

economy

is the

foundation of power in international relations

.

Economic strength funds the capabilities and reach of the military and intelligence, and creates

global influence through trade and investment

.

As the relative economic strength of the US has decreased, the range of feasible policy options has shrunk.

Adapting to a world in which Washington can no longer afford

to give other nations free security

, fund old weapon systems that the US military loves but are no longer necessary, or catch up with China when it comes to it Giving poorer nations credit for transportation and digital infrastructure will be as painful as it is necessary.

3. US foreign policy makers need to rethink

Third

, the conceptual arsenal that a generation of US foreign policy makers has relied on is no longer useful.

Their assumptions are still shaped by the conviction that

victory in the Cold War

meant

the

universalization of Western liberal democracy

.

This illusion led many in the

Bush and Obama administrations

to expect that the very act of overthrowing autocrats in Iraq and Libya would spontaneously create democracies.

The vision for a world where all nations use

free markets

to make their citizens rich and democracy to make them free has been undoubtedly inspiring.

But today it is impossible not to move a mile when reading columnist Thomas Friedman's theory of the “golden arcs” on conflict avoidance, which he

stated

in the

New York Times

in 1996

: “[If a country] has a middle class, it is big is enough that a McDonald's is worth it, it becomes a McDonald's country, and the people of McDonald's countries don't like to wage wars;

they'd rather stand in line for burgers. ”But many of those who smile as they read this line continue to wonder how China - a middle class country larger than the US population and 3,600 McDonald's restaurants - is doing refuse to take his place in the US-led international order.

4. China can get bigger and stronger than the United States

Fourth

,

China represents the greatest international challenge

for the United States in its 244-year history. Unlike the economically isolated and technologically restricted

Soviet Union

- whose GDP never reached half that of the US - China has the resources to be significantly

larger and stronger than the US

to become.

So it is not simply a twin of Russia who can be treated as another great power competitor, but a rival whose meteoric rise

shifts

the basic

power tectonics

.

China is already the

largest economy in the world by

using the best standards for comparing national economies

.

In addition, China has replaced the US as the main engine of global growth.

Of all the major economies, China was the only one bigger at the end of 2020 than it was at the beginning of the year.

Policy makers can deny the structural realities, but they cannot escape them.

As we know all too well from history, when a rising power threatens to oust a ruling power, it

often leads to catastrophic war

- even if neither rival intended to do so, as was

the case

in Europe in 1914

.

5. China is the number one trading partner in many countries - including Japan, Australia and Germany

Fifth

, the balance of economic power on the chessboard of the 21st century has become as important as the

balance of military power

.

Since the government mandate of heads of state depends in large part on their ability to bring prosperity to citizens, the Trump administration's attempt to convince US allies to choose between their security relationship with the US and their economic relationship with China was , a wrong path.

Regardless of the rhetoric, there will be no so-called decoupling to create an

economic iron curtain

.

China is the world's manufacturing base and the No. 1 trading partner for most countries, including

Japan, Australia, and even Germany

.

As the grand master of geoeconomics, China has learned to use all instruments of economic coercion to achieve geopolitical goals.

This provides an instructive contrast to what

former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates

referred to as the "overmilitarization" of US foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.

6. The military power of China

Sixth

, while the United States remains the world's leading military power, China has built the

most formidable military power in Asia

in the last generation

.

The

Chinese defense budget

is now

almost six times that of Japan

and almost four times that of India.

In contrast to the United States with its global commitments, China's defense efforts are mainly focused on its borders and regional waters.

There it has shifted the balance of military power in its favor at the most likely crisis points it might face the United States, particularly on the Taiwan Strait.

Former Assistant Secretary of Defense Robert Work has admitted that of

18 Pentagon war games

simulating a war for Taiwan,

18 were for China and 0 for the United States

.

7. China is also a serious technological competitor

Seventh

, China has become a serious

technological competitor

.

In

artificial intelligence

- the technology that is likely to have the greatest impact on the economy and national security in the next decade - China is now a "full-line competitor" as Eric Schmidt, former executive chairman of

Alphabet

, and I wrote in 2019.

In the area

5G telecommunications and financial services technology

, China is the clear leader.

At the same time, the Trump administration's restrictions on China's access to advanced semiconductors are a stark reminder that the U.S. continues to have a head start in key areas.

While China, due to its

population size

and

surveillance state, will

have more and more data available to feed advances in machine learning, the US can

leverage

smart immigration policies

to maintain a crucial edge by drawing superstars from its 7.8 billion people recruiting the world.

8. Nuclear weapons and climate change - there is no alternative to co-existence

Eighth

, we live in a world of mutually assured destruction.

However intense the rivalry between the United States and China,

technology and nature

- in the form of

nuclear weapons and climate change

- force both to coexist, as the alternative would be "co-destruction."

The two countries have practically become Siamese twins: no matter how obnoxious one may be to the other, if one succumbs to the temptation to strangle his rival, he will commit suicide.

Today one of the world's two largest

emitters of greenhouse gases

can disrupt the climate in such a way that neither of them can live in it.

Washington and Beijing must find a way to work together on this front if they are to keep a planet worth living in.

9. China could outperform the US in defense and intelligence

Ninth

, if its economy or system does not collapse, China will eventually be able

to fund

defense and intelligence budgets

larger than the

United States'

.

In order to create a balance of power that constrains Beijing's behavior, Washington will have to pull other major countries on its side of the scales of power.

However, this will be far more of a challenge than it was during the Cold War.

Not only does each potential ally have their own interests, concerns, and priorities - for most other countries, China will be their primary economic relationship.

For example, they could ally themselves with the United States against China on some security issues, but they could align themselves more closely with China on economic issues.

The recently signed

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

is a good example of such an economic link.

10. Globalization remains a crucial force

Ultimately

,

despite its many critics,

globalization will

remain a powerful force reshaping international relations.

Many changes are for the better: the US share of global GDP has shrunk, but the world's “economic pie” has grown - more than a hundred times between 1950 and today.

US-led globalization, built on the foundation of the US-led world order, has brought tremendous benefits in almost every dimension, including

science, medicine, technology, products, food, exchange of ideas, human experiences,

and the

fabric of life

itself. At the same time Policymakers must weigh these gains against the reality that

relentless global competition is

causing disruption and asymmetrical consequences between countries in each country.

All of these factors require

Washington to move beyond its traditional strategy of

overwhelming problems with resources.

Americans will have to learn to differentiate between national interests that are really vital and those that are just vivid.

In this difficult new world, great ambitions are limited by diminished skills and produce diminished results.

Nonetheless, what

investor Warren Buffett has

said repeatedly over the past five decades

is true

: Nobody has ever made money in the long run by selling the United States below value.

I trust that Biden and his successors will muster the strategic imagination to do what is necessary to successfully protect and advance the interests of the United States.

by Graham Allison

Graham Allison

is a professor of government at Harvard Kennedy School, where he was also the founding dean.

He is the former Assistant Secretary of Defense of the United States and the author of

Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?

This article was first published in English on January 15, 2021 in the magazine “ForeignPolicy.com” - as part of a cooperation, the translation is now also

 available to

Merkur.de

readers 

.

+

Foreign Policy Logo

© ForeignPolicy.com