5 reasons to keep wearing a mask after getting vaccinated 1:55
(CNN) -
Mass vaccination programs for covid-19 are underway in many countries around the world, offering the first ray of hope that life as we knew it could once again be within our grasp.
The UK was the first country to start vaccinating its citizens with a fully vetted and licensed COVID-19 vaccine, and is among the countries with the highest number of inoculated vaccines per capita.
But how quickly can the UK, and perhaps the rest of the world, expect to return to some form of normalcy?
The truth is, not very soon.
Public health experts largely agree that it is unrealistic to bet that the vaccine is a magic bullet to end the pandemic;
They say safeguards against the coronavirus, such as face masks and social distancing, are likely to remain in place for at least several months.
Dr Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, told CNN that many factors need to be considered before the UK lockdown is relaxed, starting with a big drop in severe cases and deaths.
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"The problem really comes down to the numbers," Hunter said.
He explained that if the UK were in a similar position to August 2020, when the number of new cases was less than 1,000 on most days, dropping to a low of 600, and hospitalizations were dropping below 100 and daily deaths below 10, then the country would be in a better place to ease some of the current restrictions, given that the vaccine rollout is underway.
But outbreaks are still spiraling out of control across the UK, where more than 25,000 new cases and 1,725 coronavirus deaths were recorded on Wednesday, bringing the number of COVID-19 deaths in the country to 101,887.
Last week, the outlook was grim, too, with more than 35,900 cases reported each day and an average of more than 1,240 deaths a day, based on an average of seven days of government data.
Two weeks ago, the UK had the highest death rate in the world.
More than 37,500 covid-19 patients are in UK hospitals, with an average of 3,825 patients admitted daily, based on a seven-day average of government data.
Therefore, it remains in doubt whether a vaccine can really change things.
There are also many unknowns surrounding the vaccines in use, such as whether or not they can stop transmission and for how long they provide immunity.
This means that vaccinated individuals may still be able to transmit the virus or contract it at a later date, if social distancing measures were to be completely relaxed.
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And while the UK vaccine program has been very successful so far, there is another key factor to consider: its coverage rates.
First of all, vaccines are currently only available to priority groups, who make up around 20% of the UK population: the elderly, those who are clinically vulnerable and health workers, all of whom suggest the research, they are much more likely to take the vaccine.
A woman in the four priority groups receives the Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine at a church in Yorkshire, northern England.
As the vaccine becomes available to the general population, the rate of use is expected to decline, as some parts of the population will not be able to take it (children and pregnant or lactating women, for example), while others they might still hesitate to receive it.
For example, multiple surveys have shown resistance among ethnic minority groups, including a recent study commissioned by the UK government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) which found that acceptance among these groups in the UK varied widely.
The study, based on surveys conducted in November, found that 72% of black respondents said they were unlikely or highly unlikely to get vaccinated.
Pakistani and Bangladeshi groups were the next most hesitant ethnic minority group, with 42% saying they are unlikely or highly unlikely to get vaccinated.
This means that certain measures may need to continue to be applied to protect vulnerable people in unvaccinated communities, Hunter said.
And he noted that another increase in cases is possible in the fall and winter, depending on the percentage of the population that is immune or vaccinated by then.
These factors, along with the fact that multiple vaccines are used and no vaccine is 100% effective, all take the probability of herd immunity, a situation in which a sufficient amount of the population becomes immune to the virus to block its survival, as described in a recent article Hunter co-wrote.
The document has not yet been peer reviewed.
But Hunter told CNN he is hopeful that some form of normalcy could arrive as early as the summer, under "a lot more restrictions of light contact" such as wearing masks and social distancing.
This is because, while vaccines may not provide herd immunity, they will help reduce transmission by reducing the risk of developing symptoms and serious illness, and symptomatic cases are around three times more likely to transmit the virus. infection, he said.
This, in turn, should bring the R number below one, a key measure in determining whether the epidemic is shrinking or growing.
However, the arrival of new variants of the coronavirus threatens this hope, because experts simply do not know how vaccines will react to the new variants.
Studies already suggest that the B.1,351 variant, first seen in South Africa, may evade vaccination-induced immunity.
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Preliminary studies suggest that the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine is effective against the variant that was first seen in the UK.
But on Monday, Moderna said that while its vaccine is expected to "protect against emerging strains detected to date," including that from the UK, early studies have suggested it may be somewhat less effective against the first-reported variant. in South Africa.
Moderna said it was developing a new booster vaccine to help combat this reduction.
It is unclear whether the Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine, which began its rollout in the UK earlier this month, will be affected by the new variants.
A spokesperson for the University of Oxford told CNN on Tuesday that they are "carefully evaluating the impact of the new variants on vaccine immunity and evaluating the processes necessary for the rapid development of adjusted covid-19 vaccines if necessary." .
While the variants continue to present new challenges for vaccine programs, scientists are advancing models to predict a glimpse of what the future may hold.
Best scenario
A study, developed by John Roberts, a member of the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group, earlier this month, predicts that by the end of March, deaths in the UK may be reduced by almost 90% and that by mid-March, hospitalizations could fall by almost 60%.
But the forecasting model assumes a best-case scenario in which the government meets its goal of administering the first dose to all vulnerable groups by February 15, and where everyone who is offered an injection the accept.
Roberts's model is also based on the assumption that the vaccine is 70% effective in preventing infections and 100% effective in preventing serious diseases that would lead to hospitalizations and deaths, which the new variants now threaten.
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Some experts say it is unclear whether vaccines offer full protection against severe disease and death, arguing that clinical trials have evaluated efficacy against developing symptoms, but that data was more limited on severe disease.
Others also say that a full assimilation is not realistic.
Taking these caveats into account and creating a wide range of plausible scenarios could help predict when we can expect to see an impact, which is what researchers at the University of Warwick, the University of Edinburgh and Imperial College London have done.
Last week, scientists presented a wide selection of models that aim to address the various factors that call into question the launch of the vaccine and its success.
One model explored options based on vaccine deployment and acceptance in light of variant B.1,1.7, first seen in the UK.
The research, conducted by Dr Anne Cori and Dr Marc Baguelin of Imperial College London, found that, unsurprisingly, there should be 'more restrictions to obtain the same level of control' due to the advent of the variant .
But also that 78% of the population would need to be protected, either by vaccination or by immunity, due to a previous infection, so that the R number is less than one.
And with various uncertainties surrounding the efficacy of the vaccines being implemented, they predicted that an acceptance rate of more than 80% would be needed to achieve herd immunity, and that even with a very ambitious vaccination program of 3 million. doses per week, it would take four to five months to cover 80% of the UK population with your first dose.
Last week in the UK, more than 2.5 million people received their first dose of the vaccine and 18,177 received a second dose.
Researchers estimate that population level immunity in the UK was 19% from a past infection in mid-January.
Ultimately, Imperial's models found that the full lifting of restrictions before the summer "will lead to prolonged and potentially multiple periods of pressure on hospitals, and substantial additional deaths."
Professor Mark Woolhouse and his team from the University of Edinburgh found similar results.
They drew 44 scenarios with different coverage rates, variants, mixing patterns, degrees of relaxation of restrictions, and how much protection the vaccine offers (versus the natural protection of getting sick and then recovering), and saw an extremely gradual relaxation of measures , which would start in the spring and continue through early 2022, would be a much less risky approach and could help emerge from the pandemic without overwhelming the UK's National Health Service (NHS).
Valuable data and surveillance
People line up outside the Stevenage vaccination center in England.
While none of the UK models can be applied to other countries, Roberts says nations that take similar approaches to the UK, for example rolling out the vaccine to the most vulnerable groups first, along with national closures or other restrictions they can see, or "hope to see," comparable results.
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Hunter urges caution when extrapolating and comparing the results observed in different countries, but stresses that the robustness of post-vaccine surveillance in the UK has been successful and that the data from it may be useful for other countries in the future. next.
In a few months, UK scientists should be able to examine the impact of a wide range of factors, including who has received which vaccine, what dose, and how big the gap is.
It's a key step in understanding the effect vaccines have, Hunter explains.
"That will be valuable around the world," he said, noting that the UK model could, in turn, help inform how other countries could plan their deployments and pave the long way back to normal life.
CNN's Eliza Mackintosh and Krystina Shveda contributed to this report.
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