The change that Biden projects towards Cuba raises hopes on the island

Cuba is observing with caution, but also with some optimism, the landing of Joe Biden in Washington, although the island's authorities are aware that dismantling the more than 200 sanctions adopted by Donald Trump and resuming Obama's policy of rapprochement, as he said. the new president who would do, will not be easy or fast.

Last Thursday, the US Administration assured that it will "review" Trump's policies towards Cuba, among other international issues.

This declared purpose indicates that a path of opportunities is opening, although normalization will be slow and laborious.

In the absence of an official Cuban reaction to what was said by the spokesperson for the new president, the words of the Cuban president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, when the victory of Biden was known, give clues about the attitude.

It was a brief message contained in the Cuban roadmap in its relations with Washington: "We believe in the possibility of a constructive bilateral relationship respectful of differences."

This position implies, on the one hand, that the island is willing to work with the United States even when the economic embargo and other harmful sanctions are still in force and, on the other, it establishes that the United States cannot expect from Cuba any concessions or give and take to advance. in standardization.

The place that Cuba will occupy within the priorities of the new North American Administration is unknown.

The same is true of how far Biden is willing to go in recovering from Obama's policy, to whom Havana recognizes the merit of having "knocked down a door" in US relations with Cuba, since until that moment the opposition to dialogue with Cuba it was bipartisan, republican and democratic.

The political game in the US Congress and Senate, where the Democratic majority is meager and there is a very active Cuban-American lobby, will be key in Washington's next moves.

But according to experts in the relations between the two territories, as well as Cuban officials in informal conversations, there are reasons to harbor hope of a new thaw and that both countries can collaborate in various fields, as happened in the last two years of Obama. when Havana and Washington signed 22 pacts in various areas.

Although the statements of the White House spokesperson were a simple response during a press conference, the academic and former Cuban ambassador to the European Union Carlos Alzugaray observes “two important aspects” in his words: “Just nine days after the taking of possession of Biden, it is confirmed that Cuba is on the agenda as part of a process to review national security policies ”.

And the second: "It is significant to appreciate that in the statement of the spokesperson the pejorative rhetorical references against the Cuban Government as a dictatorship, regime ... very common in the previous Administration have disappeared."

Appointments

More relevant for the Cuban government are the appointments to some key positions that affect Havana.

“The team that Biden has appointed to handle foreign policy is familiar with the Cuban issue.

Many of them had to do with the negotiations between the two countries and the implementation of Obama's policy, ”says Alzugaray.

Among them are the Secretary of National Security, Alejandro Mayorkas - born in Havana -, the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, or the director of the USAID (development agency), Samantha Power.

Alzugaray points out that the three “know their Cuban interlocutors and they know them, which can facilitate dialogue.

And perhaps even the first lady, Jill Biden, who made an official trip to Cuba in October 2016, should be included in this group. "

Although the stars of normalization seem to align, for Cuba there are three major obstacles that complicate the rapprochement: the existence of the embargo;

the recent inclusion of the island by Trump in the list of countries sponsoring terrorism;

and the existence of numerous Trumpist blacklists, in which there are more than 200 Cuban companies with which the North Americans cannot deal.

Of course, the Helms-Burton law, which applies extraterritorial penalties to companies with interests in Cuba, is another stumbling block.

Yesterday Spain demanded that Brussels request Washington to urgently suspend its application.

Cuba is confident that Biden will begin to dismantle the sanctions scaffolding at some point.

And she declares herself ready to recover Obama's normalization and sit down to negotiate if the new Administration has that will and the political space to achieve it.