Shoppers at a Christmas market in the center of Mexico City.Teresa de Miguel
The blow that the pandemic has dealt to the Mexican economy during 2020 already has a figure.
The coronavirus crisis caused a drop of 8.5% of GDP last year, according to preliminary data published this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), which is in line with what is projected by international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund. (IMF).
Although it is a historical drop, the largest since the Great Depression, the fourth quarter shows a slight improvement, with a rebound of 3.1% compared to the previous months.
The year that has just ended will be marked in red.
The Latin American country has not seen a crisis of this magnitude since the 1930s, when GDP contracted by 14.9%, according to an analysis by Banco Base.
With the fall of 2020, the country has spun two consecutive years of contraction.
After five years of mental growth, 2019 closed with a 0.1% drop, the first setback since the financial crisis of 2009.
By sectors, the industry has been the hardest hit by the crisis in 2020, with a 10.2% drop.
The drop is largely explained by the closure of factories in April and May, with the exception of those considered essential, and by external demand that is slowly recovering.
Industry is followed by the services sector, with a fall of 7.9%.
Shops and hotels still have to navigate a complicated panorama due to capacity and schedule restrictions.
And tourism received a 58% reduction in the arrival of tourists by air.
The primary sector, with an advance of 2%, is the only activity that saves furniture.
Despite the bad data for the year, the fourth quarter points to an improvement compared to the previous months, thanks to the progressive reopening of economic activities.
Between October and December, the industry grew by 3.3%, and in the services sector, another 3%.
Even so, if this period is compared with the same moment in 2019, the fourth quarter shows a 4.6% decrease in economic activity -in the second and third quarters, this was much higher, 18.7% and 8.6%, respectively.
2021 will be a year of economic recovery, thanks to the rapid deployment of vaccination programs.
The IMF foresees a rebound of 4.3% and the Ministry of Finance, more optimistic, one of 4.6%.
Be that as it may, it is clear that returning to pre-pandemic levels of activity will be a matter of two to three years, at best.
The normalization of tourism and the pace of the recovery of the United States, Mexico's largest trading partner, will be key to recovering the slope.
The Mexican government's commitment to face the crisis has focused mainly on microcredits for small and medium-sized companies.
In October, the Executive also launched an infrastructure plan with the private sector for a value of almost 300,000 million pesos, about 14,000 million dollars.
Economists and business associations consider, however, that the aid granted has fallen short for the needs of the moment.
In the third quarter, labor poverty - those with an income below the value of food and basic products - reached 44.5% of the population compared to 35.7% in the first three months of the year, according to the Council National Evaluation of Social Policy (Coneval) in November.