A statistics professor answers “lateral thinkers” theories on excess mortality with a clear no - but also has advice to the Robert Koch Institute.
In the debate about
excess mortality
, an important factor is overlooked, says a Munich statistician.
Therefore, he joins a prediction by the virologist
Hendrik Streeck
.
On the other hand, the development in
Saxony is
"blatant" - the Federal Statistical Office is also irritated.
Munich - "If the RKI had visualized the data correctly, it would have been immediately clear what was really happening in Germany": The statistician and LMU professor
Göran Kauermann
expressed his
dissatisfaction with the authority
in a
world
interview.
"The fact that the
infection
curve shot up
among the elderly
despite
lockdown
was only
revealed
through
statistical finger exercises
," he explained his allegation.
“We
once presented
the RKI data
graphically differently.
That was profane. ”His frustration does not only
affect
the
RKI *
, but also the
data quality
in Germany in general, which he described as the
“ only catastrophe ”
.
Munich professor criticizes RKI: "In view of the data quality, I am skeptical"
When asked whether increasingly younger people are
dying
from
Covid-19
, he replied to the newspaper: "In view of the data quality of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), I am rather skeptical that we will ever come to meaningful
analyzes
.
We would like to investigate, but there is no
age information
for intensive care patients
.
The same goes for the
mutants
.
Or the
test
. "
Excess mortality due to Corona?
Professor from Munich sees Streeck's prognosis confirmed
Another topic in the conversation was
excess mortality
due to Corona *.
"According to our calculations, not unexpectedly more people died than the average of the four years before," he said - confirming an earlier prognosis by the virologist
Hendrik Streeck
.
How can that be when the Federal Statistical Office reports 48,000 more deaths than in the period 2016-2019?
According to Kauermann, a question of
interpretation
- because you have to take the age structure into account.
Today's
80-year-olds
were born in a particularly high birth rate and the higher death rates were therefore to be expected.
The
"lateral thinker" movement
, from which claims come that there are even fewer dead, countered Kauermann: "There is nothing to it." He already expressed his doubts about excess mortality in the
BR
:
Corona in Saxony: "Even without Covid-19 an excess mortality of 50 percent"
Nevertheless,
more deaths are a challenge
for the
health system
- and Kauermann shared an alarming observation in the interview: “In recent weeks, especially in East Germany, there has been
massive excess mortality
, in
Saxony it is
currently almost 100 percent, i.e. it has
doubled
.
It is striking that even without the Covid-19 deaths there is an excess mortality rate of 50 percent. "
His research team (the "Corona Data Analysis Group" at LMU) was repeatedly contacted by those affected from the state who reported that
relatives infected
with
Sars-CoV-2
in
nursing homes
remained without medical help and died, according to Kauermann, and stated: "In any case, something is wrong, that is clearly reflected in the figures." The observation was passed on to the Federal Statistical Office.
"They were irritated there too," he told the
world
.
(frs)
* Merkur.de is part of the Ippen-Digital editorial network.