The Ministry of Finance quickly made it known loud and clear that a third confinement would risk cutting economic activity by 10% to 18% (compared to the level before the epidemic).
This is a badly cut rating between version 1 of containment, which caused a collapse of 30% of GDP in April 2020, and version 2, more "soft", last November, where the decline was by 12%.
In addition, the same Bercy calculators estimate that the closure of schools and nurseries would as such have a negative impact of 5%.
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Containment measures will boost economic activity in the first quarter of 2021 in China
The large approximation of these figures speaks volumes about the uncertainty that still reigns among our leaders.
Their fear is comparable to the anguish of the goalkeeper at the moment of the penalty.
For its part, French public opinion apprehends confinement as if it were the end of beans.
However, this is not at all the case in China.
On the contrary, travel restrictions are seen as a real support for the economic situation.
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