10%, 20%, more?
Difficult to obtain reliable figures to estimate in what proportion the English variant of the Covid, ultra-contagious, affects the Ile-de-France.
Officially, we stick to figures published more than a week ago: 103 cases of the British variant and 11 cases for the South African variant.
"But it is likely that the dissemination of these variants is underestimated", indicates with humility Public Health France in its latest regional epidemiological bulletin available online since ... January 27.
What we know formally is what results from a “flash” survey, like a photo taken at time T to get an idea of the propagation.
But this photo is already old, because it dates back to January 7 and 8.
All suspected cases had been verified by the sequencing technique.
The result is reliable but long in coming.
Result: Ile-de-France stood out at the head of the pack at the national level, with 6.9% of Covid cases.
A new flash investigation took place on January 27.
The results are expected this Thursday.
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Tuesday, at the microphone of France Info, Rémi Salomon, president of the medical establishment commission of the AP-HP, was worried about a galloping progression.
The mutant would have doubled its nuisance capacity in less than a month, responsible according to him for "15 to 20%" of contaminations in Ile-de-France last week.
How much precisely?
Difficult to know.
We do not know more about PCR screening, this technique approved since January 23 by the authorities.
The private Eurofins-Biomnis laboratory, with its platform capable of analyzing 50,000 samples in less than 24 hours, in Ivry (Val-de-Marne), was the first to get the authorities on fire.
The Ministry of Health encouraged all medical biology laboratories to send their positive PCRs "without delay" to find out if it was the classic Covid or a variant.
A "showdown" between the public and the private?
One would have expected to have a snapshot of the spread of the mutant, day to day and by region.
A major tool to arbitrate a possible reconfinement.
But the idea was not unanimous.
The national union of hospital biologists (SNBH) regretted a unilateral decision "without prior consultation", also arguing logistical and IT difficulties.
Today, the French society of microbiology (SFM) questions the relevance of this choice.
For its part, Eurofins-Biomnis, which took several days before receiving the first samples from outside, refuses to communicate results.
Some denounce a "sterile public-private showdown", while among the ranks of detractors, we hear that "it is too late to favor this technique".
The regional health agency (ARS) announced for a week the publication of a doctrine on this subject, a kind of guide to good practices, which reminds all stakeholders of the procedure to follow.
But ten days later, still nothing ...
