The crossed vetoes threaten to perpetuate instability in Catalonia

Ismael Peña López is the head of the electoral system of the Generalitat of Catalonia and is in charge of ensuring that the February 14 elections can be held with minimal risk to health.

Overwhelmed by the difficulties involved in voting in the midst of a pandemic, days ago he launched a petition on social media that sounded like a plea: “Dear politicians: do it right because there will be no repeat elections.

You have to go the first time! ”.

The campaign, however, is dangerously close to its equator and the risk that F-14 will breed another weak government is very real and even no one dares to completely rule out a repeat of the elections.

The vetoes crossed between parties for subsequent pacts grow with each passing day.

• Prisoners united against the 'Illa effect'

The magic number is 68. The Catalan Government needs this number of deputies to settle on an absolute majority and avoid the instability of recent years.

No single party comes close to this goal, according to polls, and it will take two or even three parties to form a government.

Until the irruption of the socialist Salvador Illa in the campaign, the formula that was pointed out as most likely was a reissue of the coalition between Junts and Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) with external support from the CUP or En Comú Podem.

However, the growing animosity between the two main pro-independence partners is now added that neither the Catalan referent of Podemos nor the anti-capitalists of the CUP see clearly a government with the neo-convergent Laura Borràs.

The former because they consider that Junts continues to be very heeled to the right even if Carles Puigdemont's men dilute his program.

"Our policies are incompatible with those of the Junts", summarized yesterday Jessica Albiach.

The CUP also fights to get away from the Puigdemont candidate, to the point that its head of the list, Dolors Sabater, assured yesterday that it will not invest her, due to the judicial investigation that weighs on her for fragmentation of public contracts and that threatens her with a disqualification.

Although the CUP subsequently rectified its candidate, the messages of the anti-capitalists go along the lines of not investing any president who does not commit to short-term independence, something that not even those of Puigdemont are in a position to do.

Beyond pure mathematics, in ERC there is a certain division between those who think that the relationship with the party of the

escaped

former

identity in Belgium can be rebuilt - as long as the Republicans lead the future coalition - and those who advocate a change in the wheel.

But to be able to choose to rely on Junts or do so on the common and socialist ERC, it needs a result clearly superior to that of its now partners.

If not, it will be very difficult for them to escape the pressure of the independentist media and opinion-makers who demand a government of unity for secession.

The other government formula that could open the way is one headed by the PSC of Salvador Illa.

But the most favorable polls do not give him more than 35 deputies, so he will have to work hard to seek support.

Its objective is to have the commons, who aspire to between six and twelve deputies.

But he would lack a score more votes.

Could Illa count on ERC?

According to what was said yesterday by the Republican candidate, Pere Aragonès, this is not an option either.

Aragonès stated on Cadena SER that "in no case" will he support Illa if the socialist wins the elections (the day before he had specified that he would not invest him with either a favorable vote or an abstention).

Hours later, in Congress, the Republican deputy Montse Bassa called on the independence movement to "avoid at all costs" that the PSC is in the Government.

Constitutionalist front

Another thing is what will happen if the one who achieves the support of the commons is ERC.

Could those of Oriol Junqueras and Pere Aragonès count on the support of the Socialists?

In the PSC they do not want to put themselves in this position and Illa avoids specifying it.

In ERC, however, they take for granted that they could force at least one abstention from the Socialists in the investiture and then go cheating with support from the Junts, the CUP and also the PSC.

"If we achieve a result clearly superior to that of the Junts [which the polls do not guarantee] it would be easy to obtain the support of the PSC, especially if they want to continue with our support in the Congress of Deputies," say sources close to Junqueras.

On the night of 14-F, all eyes will be on knowing not only who wins but also whether or not the independentistas maintain the absolute majority.

If they do, Illa will have no pact options to take over the presidency.

If the independentistas add less than 68 deputies [the CIS grants them between 59 and 71], possibilities are opened for the socialists.

The independentistas have speculated in recent weeks with the possibility that Illa would even rely on Vox if necessary, to which the socialist candidate has responded vehemently: "What Vox wants is to send me to jail," he recalled.

Ciudadanos has offered to Illa to form a constitutionalist government, but the bad electoral expectations of those of Inés Arrimadas also make it difficult.

Yesterday the PP put conditions to join an agreement: that Illa considers giving way to another candidate: "We are not going to vote for the worst Minister of Health in the EU," said the leader of the Catalan PP, Alejandro Fernández.

The CUP corrects its candidate with the pacts

The candidate of the CUP, Dolors Sabater, was corrected yesterday by the leadership of the party after stating that the judicial investigation that affects Laura Borràs (Junts) to the presidency of the Generalitat for slicing up public administration contracts would be an impediment to invest her.

The CUP clarified that its only red line is for the next Catalan government to bet decisively on leaving behind the paralysis of the last three years.

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Àngels Piñol

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