Despite the violent shock of the pandemic which has plunged the planet into recession, 2020 will not have been the annus horribilis of world trade, at least for goods.
In April, when much of the planet was confined, the World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted in an optimistic scenario a fall of 12.9%, reduced to 9.6% in early October.
According to their latest data, released at the end of January, the decline at the end of the third quarter compared to the same period of 2019 was 5%.
And the year should end in equilibrium, despite the deteriorated health situation, the rapid progression of the Covid variants, which has led to a tightening of the restrictions.
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There was a clear plunge between April and June 2020, of 12.1% in volume compared to the start of the year, but followed by a catching up of the same magnitude in the third quarter.
“This V-
shaped
recovery is mainly driven by emerging economies,”
comments Gerdien Meijerink, of the Dutch CPB Economic Policy Institute.
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