Editor's Note:
Roberto Izurieta is Director of Latin American Projects at George Washington University.
He has worked in political campaigns in several Latin American countries and Spain, and was an advisor to Presidents Alejandro Toledo, of Peru;
Vicente Fox, from Mexico, and Álvaro Colom, from Guatemala.
Izurieta is also a contributor to CNN en Español.
The opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author.
José Hernández is a Colombian journalist, graduated in journalism and French literature in France - School of Journalism.
He has been general coordinator of the writing of the newspaper El Tiempo de Colombia, General editor of El Comercio in Ecuador, director of the magazine Vanguardia.
He is currently director of the 4Pelagatos portal in Ecuador.
See more opinions at cnne.com/opinion
(CNN Spanish) -
The presidential and National Assembly elections of Ecuador this Sunday, February 7, will say much more about the political consequences of the economic crisis and the covid-19 pandemic in the region than the last elections in the Dominican Republic, Bolivia or the US.
A series of national surveys in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Mexico, carried out by the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics and published in September 2020, show that the bad economic situation due to the pandemic is one of the main concerns of the inhabitants of the region.
MIRA: The ABC of the 2021 general elections in Ecuador
At times, it could be perceived that people are getting used to living with the virus, but in countries where there is no basic social support for this emergency, households cannot survive without income either.
People want jobs, security and vaccines.
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In the Ecuadorian case, voters might even want to go back to the past.
The years of wealth produced by a barrel of oil that reached US $ 140 in June 2008, generate part of the electorate nostalgia for the bonanza that then-President Rafael Correa administered.
This creates favorable conditions for the presidential candidate promoted by Correa, Andrés Arauz, to be among the favorites along with Guillermo Lasso and Yaku Pérez.
The three stand out among 16 presidential candidates who, by their number, could predict that there will be a second round.
Otherwise, a candidate would have to get 40% of the valid votes and 10% more than his follower.
LOOK: Coronavirus in Ecuador: these are the latest figures in the middle of the elections
Correa ruled Ecuador from 2007 to 2017, had a rain of petrodollars until 2014 and maintained the same level of spending until he left, thanks to external indebtedness.
He received so much money that his government squandered more than $ 1.5 billion on the land where the largest refinery in the Pacific was supposed to be built.
There, the late president of Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, laid the first stone of the project in 2008. An audit carried out with the support of the UN detected overpricing in 5 works for US $ 2.45 billion. And when money began to run short, Rafael Correa issued a decree to change the ratio of the state debt to GDP, which, by law, could not exceed 40%.
Thus he was able to take out more loans.
Correa could not hope to be re-elected for the third time.
He then introduced Lenín Moreno, who had been his vice president for six years and was more popular.
This was the typical power equation in which someone wins on behalf of another.
Correa even gave him, before the cameras, the government program contained in three books with the evident intention of returning in four years, once the economy has adjusted.
Lenín Moreno fought with Correa from the first day of his government.
Currently Correa, who has resided in Belgium since 2017, faces several trials and was sentenced to eight years in prison for bribery in April 2020. His candidate is Arauz, a 35-year-old economist, who held positions in his government, without much experience, but entirely functional to him.
How likely is it that I win?
To answer that question, there are surveys of all kinds that are much more difficult to carry out in times of pandemic and crisis (not to mention exhaustion).
But in Ecuador there are two additional factors: those polls disclose their methodology, but not who finances them and, unlike the US election, where the intention to vote has not moved much in recent months and there were practically no undecided In Ecuador, the majority of voters, in addition to being disappointed, are hard hit by the crisis and the pandemic and have lost all hope that politics will solve their problems.
In any case, the surveys are so dissimilar that some barely manage to delineate trends, not sure winners.
The other option is quite clear and distinct from the return to "21st century socialism" represented by Arauz.
Guillermo Lasso is competing for the third time, since for 11 years he has disputed Rafael Correa for political control of the country.
Lasso is an entrepreneur (a shareholder of one of the most important banks in the country), offers capacity, employment and firmly maintain dollarization in Ecuador.
Yaku Pérez is a candidate who represents indigenism and, in many aspects, the October 2019 protests that strongly shook Quito and Santiago.
No one with political viability represented that satiety or revenge (which is good in politics, because this is not resolved with violence) but the indigenous movement does not have the same force in Ecuador as in Bolivia, so it is very likely that it will not happen to the second round.
Will Yaku Pérez support Correísmo or the opposition?
1:22
Ecuador faces, then, the February 7 election amid a high level of political uncertainty, to which two factors must be added: despite the fact that voting is mandatory in Ecuador, the volume of invalid votes and the level of absenteeism generated. due to the fear of covid-19 they can be very high.
In addition, the congregation in the voting precincts suggests that many citizens, especially the elderly, will think twice before going to vote.
The options are clear.
There is no enthusiasm and Ecuador is faced with a dilemma: go back to a past that no longer exists or bet on a change that seeks to lessen the effects of the economic, health and moral crisis that society is feeling, with a government that has management capacity.
That dilemma between correísmo and anticorreísmo has been experienced by Ecuador since 2006 when Rafael Correa was elected.
Guillermo Lasso predicts the fall of correísmo 1:01
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