The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

Scientist presents plausible corona bill on YouTube - and warns of "deceptive point"

2021-02-04T15:40:28.596Z


The Corona videos from "maiLab" should be known to many. Maker Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim is now presenting a formula that can be used to calculate the ebb of the pandemic.


The Corona videos from "maiLab" should be known to many.

Maker Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim is now presenting a formula that can be used to calculate the ebb of the pandemic.

  • When does Corona end?

    According to Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim, a wrongly asked question.

  • It would be more correct: How does Corona end?

    She gives the answer on her YouTube channel

    maiLab

    .

  • The virus must be controllable in such a way that the damage is as low as possible.

Berlin - The science Youtuber and chemist Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim has brought a term into consciousness that Impf-Germany should remember in the coming months: "Sterilizing immunity".

This means that you are no longer infectious after a corona vaccination - the question par excellence in the dispute about relaxation or other rules for vaccinated people.

“Immunity means you can't get sick.” But still infect others.

As a member of the Max Planck Society, the 34-year-old has now also done modeling à la Lauterbach, Drosten, Streeck & Co.

“How many people actually have to be vaccinated so that we can lead a normal life again?” She asks.

"This is how Corona ends" is the title of the viral video - and Nguyen-Kim's calculation example goes like this:

  • The RKI estimates the R value (important: without measures and assuming that nobody is immune) for Sars-CoV-2 at 3.3, - 3.8.

  • For your example, Nguyen-Kim assumes an R value of 3 to simplify matters (100 infected people infect 300 other people)

  • With a vaccination of 2/3 of the people, the R-value would drop to 1 - this is a value at which the virus is still spreading, but the number of actively infected people no longer increases (“And at some point the pandemic will run out. ").

  • With an R-value of 3.8, an immunity of 73.7 percent of the population would be necessary.

  • The catch: New mutations like B.1.1.7.

    "Let's imagine if we had an R-value of 5 for the more contagious variant," says Nguyen-Kim.

    Then an immunity of 80 percent would be required for the ebb.

"This is how Corona ends" on Youtube: Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim presents formula for vaccination percentage

In her formula, the scientist emphasizes that the R-value is only an average value, because there are also “super spreaders” - which, if things are going well, could also mean that 50 percent herd immunity is sufficient.

However, she answered the initial question: The pandemic ends when enough people have been vaccinated so that the R value drops to 1 or below even without the Corona rules.

In the

report produced

for

funk

by ARD / ZDF, however, Nguyen-Kim urgently warns against becoming careless before this herd immunity is achieved: “If we think too quickly: 'Bye, Corona!

Goodbye forever!'

and drop all measures ”, a third wave could quickly arise.

Corona modeling: Virus should not "smoke through" through non-risk groups

And: For the time being, according to the scientist, the vaccinations could change less than expected, as senior citizens and high-risk patients who are not known to be infection drivers are vaccinated first.

But the combination of vaccination and protective measures (restricting contacts, keeping your distance, rapid tests, etc.) would certainly reduce the number of infections massively in the future.

Sars-CoV-2 will never completely disappear, but the pathogen could lose its monstrosity.

Nguyen-Kim also warned of a “deceptive point” in the event of hasty easing: “If the virus just rushed through the 'non-risk population', just as many people could die or have severe courses as it does now.

The intensive care units could fill up as well.

Only with younger people instead of older people. "(Frs)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-02-04

Similar news:

You may like

Trends 24h

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.