All indications are that the new administration is galloping back to the original nuclear deal • Fear: The removal of pressure from Iran and the lifting of sanctions will degenerate the region into war • Interpretation
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Will he return to the nuclear agreement?
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Two and a half weeks after President Joe Biden took office, a clash between his new government and Israel seems inevitable.
The president called some of the leading international leaders, but not Netanyahu.
Even in his foreign policy speech on Thursday, the mention of Israel was marginal.
All indications are that the new administration is speeding back to the original nuclear deal, arguing that only the deal will prevent Iran from rapidly breaking into a bomb development.
The president's advisers, as well as himself, think that after the two sides return to an agreement, new negotiations will be opened with Tehran, which will lead to an improved nuclear agreement ("Longer and stronger agreement", according to Foreign Minister Belinkan).
In Israel, however, the entire professional system and almost the entire political system believes that the American approach is detached from reality.
The prime minister, foreign minister, chief of staff, the National Security Council, the Mossad and the foreign ministry are convinced that from the moment the US removes the "paralyzing sanctions" imposed by the Trump administration on Iran, it will lose the levers of pressure to reach another agreement.
Israel notes that the original nuclear deal reached by Obama, with all its shortcomings, came after six years of severe international sanctions on Iran and not against the good will of the Iranians.
Even in the extra-governmental system, opposition to the American approach is almost unanimous.
A policy recommendation document drafted by the security movement and sent to all influential people in the United States warns that removing pressure from Iran and returning to the nuclear deal will degenerate the region into war.
"A partial and perforated agreement could achieve the opposite of the desired goal, leading the region once again to instability, a nuclear arms race, and ultimately war. "It has been so effective that it has achieved significant results in the last two years. Under sanctions, the regime will be willing to negotiate with far more significant compromises than it would not under such pressure. Therefore, negotiations on a new agreement with Iran should take place while pressure is exerted." The security guards write.
A similar position was presented by the INSS Institute for National Security Studies.
The only factor that justifies an immediate return to the nuclear deal is the J Street lobby.
"Iran is on the path of uranium enrichment at a dangerous pace. Trump's pressure did not cause a change in Iranian policy. On the contrary, there is no escape from returning to the diplomatic framework," said Nadav Tamir, head of the lobby in Israel.
