Europe must wake up.
Its vaccination campaign against Covid-19 has already accumulated five weeks behind the program.
A very expensive delay: it represents two lost points of GDP, or nearly 90 billion euros, according to calculations by the insurer Allianz.
This is the price for the economy of the extension of measures restricting mobility (closure of restaurants, ski resorts, etc.) estimated at 0.4 point of GDP per additional week.
This amount of 90 billion is higher than that of expected payments from the European recovery fund this year.
The global race for vaccination will translate directly into the economic performance of the respective countries.
The United Kingdom, Israel and the United States have gained a good head start over the Europeans, mired in a shortage of precious serums due to production bottlenecks.
Multiply the current rate by six
The European Union has made a commitment, relayed by the French government, to vaccinate 70% of the population by the summer.
To achieve this, the current vaccination rate would need to be increased sixfold.
If this were not the case, collective immunity would not be reached before… the end of 2022. This delay can be made up if new vaccines arrive on the market.
AstraZeneca's was delivered to France this week.
In addition to the virus, the vaccine immunizes against the crisis: the amount invested in a dose translates into four times more consumption and investment.
It is this virtuous effect that is expected to come out of the doldrums.
The failure of this policy by the summer could have dramatic consequences: the continuation of confinements and a new recession, when the countries which will have vaccinated the major part of their fragile population will enjoy at the same time a vigorous recovery. .
