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(CNN Spanish) -
The new variants of the coronavirus, which come from the United Kingdom, Brazil and South Africa, are spreading throughout the world and have raised several questions: how serious are these new variants going to be?
Is a second or third wave of the pandemic coming that will be able to defeat even the best vaccines?
Are we going to be able to control all this?
Andrés Oppenheimer interviewed Dr. Laurie Ann Ximénez-Vivye, a Mexican doctor who studied at Harvard University and has just written a book entitled "Irreparable damage, the criminal management of the pandemic in Mexico."
Andrés Oppenheimer: Dr. Ximénez-Fyvie, how concerned should we be with these new variants of the virus that have appeared in Great Britain, in Brazil, in South Africa? Is a new wave of the pandemic coming or will these variants be neutralized with the vaccines we have?
Laurie Ann Ximénez:
No, these new strains, new variants of the SARS-cov-2 virus, represent a very important concern for the world population.
In fact, it is a big concern.
Right now what we are seeing from a scientific point of view is that these new strains or variants will be the ones that will write the second chapter of the pandemic.
We have seen a lot of tragedy, we have seen a lot of loss from disease, but nothing is going to compare.
I mean, we might just be seeing the tip of the iceberg.
These new strains are the ones that will dictate the second stage of the pandemic and it could turn out to be something very tragic if efforts are not made throughout the world to establish these strategies to contain contagions.
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Andrés Oppenheimer: But from what I've read, doctor, vaccines, at least those from Pfizer and Moderna, have managed to stop these new variants. Or not?
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Laurie Ann Ximénez:
Yes. Right now there are three strains.
The best described are a B117 strain, which was described in the UK for the first time;
a South African strain and this Brazilian strain that was detected in Japan.
These are the three.
The problem here is not these three strains.
The problem here is that countries like Mexico, the United States, when Donald Trump was in command, and Mexico, of course Mexico, Brazil, the United States, have allowed the spread of contagion in their communities to such a degree that the virus has been allowed start evolving and mutating at a very fast rate.
These three variations, as far as we understand, are more contagious, but vaccines are still effective against them.
Now there is no problem.
The problem is that we are now seeing that these mutations are being incorporated at a very accelerated rate.
This means that these strains or some new ones that start to emerge could bring us additional problems.
Like what?
In the additional problems that could be marking even more catastrophic scenarios would be: first, that the strains begin to acquire virulence, begin to increase their virulence.
That is, they were capable of producing a more aggressive disease, a more aggressive form of covid-19.
Second, that the vaccines were no longer effective against these strains.
And the third thing is that these strains jump to animal vectors from which they could infect human beings, in such a way that contagion between people would not be our only concern, but contagion between people and also through animal vectors.
These are all possibilities and the way and the rate in which the virus is evolving right now makes this a real first-hand concern.
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Andrés Oppenheimer: What must be done to prevent that from happening?
Laurie Ann Ximénez:
What you have to do is stop the infections.
That is what you have to do.
This is the strategy that should have been followed from the beginning.
The countries that have done it like New Zealand, like Australia, like Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, these are countries that aspired to reach zero contagion.
Now we know, during the pandemic, it may never be possible to aspire to zero contagion again, because like other diseases, let's say like HIV, they came here and came to stay.
Covid-19 is a disease that also arrived and here it will remain with us for years to come.
So zero contagion may not be a real aspiration, but keeping contagion to a minimum is.
We need to keep contagion to a minimum in all of our communities, countries, continents, and so on.
This is the way to maintain, to decrease these mutations.
And of course, not only about this, right?
It is the way to keep the sick, hospitalized and dead to a minimum, of course.
Andrés Oppenheimer: You say that you have to avoid infections, but don't vaccines do that? Does the vaccine not stop the infections? Because the more people are vaccinated, the more people have immunity to avoid getting it, right?
Laurie Ann Ximénez: In fact, vaccines so far, what vaccines describe is protection against getting the disease severely, severely.
All Phase 3 clinical trials have been aimed at identifying protection against disease, but not against infection.
At this time it is recommended that even all vaccinated people have to continue protecting themselves with face masks, with ventilation of spaces, with social distancing.
Why?
Because vaccinated people, we don't know yet, until now, what we know, what we know scientifically, for sure, what vaccines report, if they are 93 percent effective, 80 percent effective ... those percentages refer to how many of those vaccinated manifest the disease.
It does not refer to infection.
This means that a vaccinated person could be protected from suffering from the disease, but become infected and be a vehicle of transmission for others.
So vaccination, as far as we know, we don't know how much it prevents transmission, what we do know is that it prevents disease.
They are two different concepts.
We do not know the part of the infection.
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Andrés Oppenheimer: But what else would our countries have to do to avoid contagion? Because there is already a coronavirus fatigue, after a year or more than a year of quarantine, partial or total, it is difficult to ask people to stay locked in their house.
Laurie Ann Ximénez:
Our countries have to do containment measures.
That is, there are two arms.
There is a part that has to be done by the governments of the countries.
Let's say federal, state, more local governments, even.
There are government actions and the actions that the population must take.
Everything has to be directed towards stopping the contagion.
So, the government needs to establish strategies where a very large number of asymptomatic patients can be detected, with the aim of being able to isolate and remove them from the contagious population.
So what does it take?
Expand testing capabilities.
Testing needs to go from
hand in hand with contact tracing strategies and with strategies to isolate people who come out positive.
Now, what we need is from an infected person, to make a contact tracing that allows us to detect those who are asymptomatic.
Why?
Because asymptomatic people are the engine that drives the spread of infections in communities.
Vaccination, while not an immediate remedy, is a remedy.
Well, I wouldn't call it a remedy.
It is something that will help the effort to stop the pandemic, but it cannot be considered as something that will have a short-term effect.
Vaccines, we will begin to see their effects in the medium and long term.
Andrés Oppenheimer: How do you explain that the countries with the most deaths are the United States, Brazil and Mexico?
Laurie Ann Ximénez:
Well that is very easily explained.
In other words, the results that are obtained during the pandemic are a direct consequence of the decisions that the leaders of each country have made to control, manage or manage this crisis.
What is the common denominator between the United States, Brazil, and Mexico?
Well, it's very easy: the type of leader they have.
We are three countries ... Fortunately, no longer the United States ... There are three countries led by presidents who have acted as deniers of science, have had the scientific evidence in front of them and have decided to ignore them.
They have seen the catastrophe that is brewing among their people within their country and they have decided to ignore it.
I welcome the statements made by Mr Boris Johnson in the UK three days ago.
The UK started by doing things very badly.
But immediately, when they saw where the catastrophe was heading, they corrected their strategy and it became one of the countries, during the summer of last year, that better controlled the pandemic throughout Europe.
So, Mr. Boris Johnson, while he is also from this populist style of leader, of leader, at least he always had the vision, the wisdom to rectify his strategy and do it in a better way.
Three days ago, Boris Johnson sat down in a speech and apologized.
He said: we underestimate the problem, we underestimate the measures.
I apologize.
This has led to too many people dying, too many people getting sick.
I mean, he's a leader who has at least admitted this.
Now Bolsonaro, López Obrador and Trump never apologized for anything.
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Andrés Oppenheimer: Let's clarify that Boris Johnson's measures initially reduced infections, but hey, in September they increased again. Doctor Ximénez-Fyvie, Boris Johnson changed his way of acting after catching the covid-19. Do you think that López Obrador will change his management of the pandemic after its contagion, as happened with Boris Johnson?
Laurie Ann Ximénez:
Well, let's see how it changes, right?
Because what happened when Bolsonaro was sick?
All he did was send terrible messages to his population.
He did not sit there with his little boxes of hydroxychloroquine, without a mask, saying: take this medicine, I'm already getting myself together.
A drug that does not work at all.
What did Donald Trump do?
The day he left the hospital, he walked up the side staircase to the central balcony of the White House wearing a mask.
He stood in front of that balcony in front of all the international press and what he did was tear off his mask.
So now López Obrador remains.
Boris Johnson, the epiphany he had after being so seriously ill, was to do better.
This is very nice.
On the other hand, for Trump and Bolsonaro this did not represent any problem.
They, in fact, emphasized this situation of nothing happens, I was cured, this is not serious.
So now it remains to see what the epiphany, if any, will be Mr. López Obrador.
See if he is going to take the direction of Johnson or he is going to take the direction of Trump and Bolsonaro.
Andrés Oppenheimer: Finally, Dr. Ximénez-Fyvie. What do you think of the miraculous droplets of the president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, which according to him are 100 percent effective against the coronavirus? What do you think?
Laurie Ann Ximénez:
I think it is very dangerous that charlatanism spreads and especially when charlatanism spreads from the highest levels of government.
A lot was said about that here too.
At the beginning of the pandemic, there was a governor, the governor of a state who told people: the poor are safe from covid, it is only the rich who are going to get sick.
Now it is very unfortunate that the president of Venezuela sits there to prescribe his magic drops.
López Obrador also did this.
What he did was teach little saints.
He said I am protected because here I have my virgin and my saint, and with these I am protected.
It is the same thing that Mr. Maduro is doing promoting his miraculous droplets.
What would be very important is that people understand quickly: here there are no miracle remedies, there are no miracle remedies.
Here is science and science today tells us the best way to take care of the covid, to get away well from covid-19 is: one, prevent contagion and, two, treat the disease very early.
Those are the ways we cure, save lives from covid-19.
Apart from that, there are no miracle remedies, little saints, stamps or drops that are going to save us.
Andrés Oppenheimer: Dr. Ximénez-Fyvie, thank you very much
