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AMN report: Iran could enrich enough uranium for bomb in four months | Israel today

2021-02-09T15:11:11.490Z


| Security The intelligence department has published the annual estimate for 2021 • The production of the bomb itself, which also requires the assembly of an explosive device and a missile, will take about 21 months • However, Iran has not yet made a decision to break into the nuclear power and intends to return to an agreement with the powers. Arrangement • The full report Launch of an Iranian missile. It


The intelligence department has published the annual estimate for 2021 • The production of the bomb itself, which also requires the assembly of an explosive device and a missile, will take about 21 months • However, Iran has not yet made a decision to break into the nuclear power and intends to return to an agreement with the powers. Arrangement • The full report

  • Launch of an Iranian missile.

    It is estimated that Tehran is interested in returning to the nuclear agreement

    Photography: 

    IP

Iran needs another two years until a nuclear bomb is exploded, but if you decide, you can reach a sufficient amount of enriched uranium for one bomb within four months, according to the Intelligence Division's annual estimate for 2021. 

The National Security Agency estimates that about 40 kilograms of enriched uranium are needed to produce a single nuclear bomb, an achievement that can be achieved within four months.

However, the production of a nuclear bomb also requires the assembly of an explosive device and a missile that will carry the device.

It is estimated that from the moment the decision is made, it will take at least 21 months until the process is completed. 

As far as is known, Iran has not yet made a decision to break into the nuclear program, and with the US regime change, Iran wants to return to the nuclear agreement as soon as possible. On the one hand the agreement removes economic pressure and on the other allows Iran to advance to the nuclear in 2026. Legally and unhindered.

Chief of Staff Kochavi: I instructed the IDF to prepare new operational plans for the treatment of Iran // Photo: Institute for National Security Studies

Israel points to another major failure in that the nuclear deal does not prevent Iran from continuing its terrorist activities in the Middle East.

According to the head of the Armed Forces, Maj. Gen. Tamir Heiman, "Iran is at an unprecedented low following the actions we have taken in recent years, and not only because of the corona, but has not abandoned its nuclear program and even stepped up its efforts on the issue.

In its current state, Iran sees the agreement as the only way out of the crisis, and therefore at least strives to return to the agreement it signed in 2015. "We will recall in this context that Chief of Staff Kochavi recently said that returning to the nuclear agreement, even with some improvements, is" bad and wrong. " 

In parallel with the progress on the nuclear issue, Iran as stated continues its efforts to establish itself in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

In Syria, the number of Iranian personalities is declining, especially after attacks attributed to Israel and harming the personal security of Iranians and their families in Syria.

At the same time, the Iranians continue to supply Syria with high-quality weapons, especially air defense systems and 'kits' that can be used to make inaccurate rockets accurate.

The IDF is working against these transfers firmly within the framework of the MBM with considerable success. 

Assessment: UAVs in Iraq can reach Israel

Iran is also trying to establish itself in Yemen and Iraq, which are part of the countries known in Israel as the "second circle."

As far as Iran is concerned, this is a cheap, effective and "differentiated" solution for carrying out response operations against Israel without risking war.

It is estimated that Iraq has a very small number of unmanned aerial vehicles that can reach Israel.

Since Iran has recently used force from Iraq against Saudi Arabia, the assessment in Israel that it would not be unreasonable to assess that there is a possibility that Iran will try to act in a similar way against Israel, although the operational capability there is low.

In Yemen, Iran's operational capability is more advanced, and it has a low double-digit number of unmanned aircraft that can reach Israel.

In Israel, they rely on close cooperation with the Americans to detect the threat, and hope that the flight time of such an aircraft from Yemen to Israel, estimated at 6 to 7 hours, will allow sufficient time to issue a warning. 

Overall, the UN estimates that the weight of the northern arena is rising, while the threat from the south is diminishing. As for Syria, Israel believes that Iran is not responding to attacks attributed to Israel, partly out of concern for Assad's personal well-being. In Syria, it is not the Syrian regime, but other elements that are doing the country as they please. These include Iran, Russia, Turkey, the United States, the Kurds and other elements.

Israel plans to continue operations in Syria for the foreseeable future, and it is estimated that the breathing space available to Israeli operations has not yet ended.

Hezbollah has not abandoned the "deterrence equation" 

Regarding Lebanon, the IAF believes that Hezbollah has not abandoned the concept of "equations", and although it has twice failed in recent months in its attempt to charge Israel for the killing of a Lebanese activist in Syria, it is still determined to respond. , But does not rule out the management of a few days of battle that will not slide into war for the sake of settling the "equation" he has created. 

Another issue that is very troubling to Israel in Lebanon is the precision missiles.

According to Hezbollah estimates, there are currently several dozen accurate missiles.

Israel is working against them on several levels, including exposure efforts and covert efforts.

The Israeli response to these missiles is not merely intercepted by an "Iron Dome", and in light of the fact that Israel believes that the activity against them is effective, a preventive attack against them is not currently being considered.

"We are constantly working and dealing with the exact missile threat, and although it is a threat that should not be taken lightly, we provide a quality response in a variety of ways, overt and covert," said General Hyman.  

Hamas is deep in the settlement process

As for the Palestinian arena, Israel believes that Hamas in Gaza is very deep in the settlement process.

The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is stable but very fragile, and the Qatari money entering the Gaza Strip is holding back greater deterioration, but not enough.

At the same time, Hamas continues to intensify and accumulate weapons in preparation for a future confrontation with Israel.

The more disturbing factor in the Gaza Strip is Islamic Jihad, but it is also trying at this time to coordinate with Hamas and curb rebellious people.

It is estimated that there are two possibilities for the dynamics of escalation in the Gaza Strip, and they are Hamas' disappointment with the series, or an initiative of Islamic Jihad. 

The coming year will be shaped by the corona plague, a profound change in the Middle East economy, a different approach by the US administration, the normalization with the Sunni states and the MBM that has turned from a perception into a "systemic state".

The Corona, according to the Armed Forces, has exacerbated the very difficult situation in which the countries and organizations around Israel are, but has not harmed their military force building. If about a year ago, there was a decrease in the number of warnings, now the amount is equal or even greater. That the corona is even an excuse for allegedly transferring money to humanitarian needs, when the money is not dyed, and also comes to the intensification of terrorist organizations. 

"We attacked hundreds of targets as part of the MBM"

There is no doubt that the hostile elements of Israel let out a sigh of relief when Donald Trump did not win the election, since the American backing of what was called "Israeli aggression" was a very deterrent.

Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, for example, really feared for his life during Trump's tenure. The Palestinians also see the change of government as an opportunity to return to the negotiating table, while Iran is very much looking forward to returning to the nuclear deal and lifting sanctions. 

The IDF, the campaign between the wars, named after a series of secret and overt IDF activities throughout the Middle East, has become a "systemic state of affairs" according to the Armed Forces. Since the beginning of the year, six IDF attacks have been reported in Syria, despite Iran's will. And Syria to retaliate and respond, such an action has not yet taken place.

In this context, the head of the Armed Forces said: "Thanks to high intelligence capabilities, we were able to attack hundreds of targets within the framework of the MMA, and preserve Israel's regional superiority."

As mentioned, the normalization process within the framework of the "Abraham Agreements" also has a historical significance that creates a "new order" in the Middle East.

In recent months, the very tone of Turkey has softened, although it is too early to determine whether this is indeed a change of trend. 

Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2021-02-09

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