The head of the Armed Forces, Heiman, understands that the Iranian nuclear treatment strategy is moving through Washington • If there are navigation errors - Israel may pay the price across the entire sector
Chief of the Armed Forces, Maj. Gen. Tamir Heiman
Photography:
Oren Cohen
One can look at the annual intelligence assessment of the Armed Forces in two ways. The first is optimistic, according to which all of Israel's rivals, led by Iran, are very far from where they had hoped to be at the current point in time. Have even intensified recently.
It can be assumed that the head of the Armed Forces, Major General Tamir Heiman, would have preferred a different, third definition to the assessment he presented to the political echelon and IDF captains: realistic.
On the one hand, not everything is black, and the environment is full not only of threats but also opportunities.
On the other hand, it is still the Middle East, and although 2020 was a (relatively) calm year, nothing on the horizon promises a similar future.
Blinken: "Iran's time for nuclear weapons to shrink to three to four months" // Photo: Reuters
As in all recent years, Iran continues to be the almost exclusive source of regional trolling.
Although ISIS is alive and kicking (especially in Syria) and al-Qaeda (Iraq and Afghanistan), Tehran is responsible for most of the damage.
While its plans were required to adapt to the reality imposed on it — especially in light of the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, which significantly hampered its strategic moves and operational-tactical function — the direction remained the same: expanding its regional influence through its envoys to fight its enemies.
This is true in Yemen against the Saudis and the Emirates, it is true in Iraq against the Americans, Saudis and Sunnis, and it is true in Syria and Lebanon against Israel.
This Iranian activity has slowed significantly due to the difficult economic situation in Iran, which is mainly a result of the crippling sanctions imposed on it by the US. This "maximum pressure" is mainly against the nuclear program, but the Armed Forces is concerned that its reduction will be felt mainly in the region: more money and weapons Will flow to Iran's protégés, and will be used by them for a violent struggle.
In their view, Iran wants to return to the nuclear deal, and its latest moves are aimed at accumulating assets that it can trade in the expected negotiations with the United States. First.
That assessment is less alarming than that heard last week in Washington, where Secretary of State Tony Blinken warned that Iran is "weeks away" from a bomb blast.
This is far from a semantic debate;
Not only because of the need of the West not to be surprised, but because of it should be derived through the action against Iran.
While the meaning of the American claim is that there is no time and therefore we need to talk to the Iranians and reach agreements with them as soon as possible, Israel claims that there is actually quite a bit more time.
That is, there is no reason to go back to the old and bad agreement, and one can take advantage of that time to reach a better agreement that will dam the original loopholes.
In other words, diplomatic, the Armed Forces believes that instead of the Americans sweating - the Iranians will sweat.
Between the lines, it can be read that the right way to do this, in the opinion of the Armed Forces, is in a diplomatic-discreet approach to the administration in Washington, and not as Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi chose to do - in an open confrontation.
This is the first evidence of professional (and healthy) disagreements in the General Staff, and it is good that the head of the Armed Forces is flooding them, as required by his position.
It should not be understood from the things that the Armed Forces chose the easy way of avoiding war. On the contrary, the intelligence it provides was in the past year (and will also be present) the main engine for any Israeli use of force, of any body, in any sector. But he understands the strategic issue of Iranian nuclear treatment. That the road passes through Washington, and the price of navigation errors may be paid by Israel across the entire sector.