Inevitable but undesirable.
A little over a year after a first survey on the forecasts for the second round of the 2022 presidential election, the French still believe that he will once again oppose Emmanuel Macron to Marine Le Pen: they are 67% to anticipate this scenario, according to a poll carried out from February 5 to 8 by Ifop for
Le Figaro
.
This is one point less compared to our previous survey in November 2019. Not enough to satisfy the French, who are calling for another casting (70%, -2 points).
However, no one really emerges to bring the alternative to this duel regularly announced in the polls.
On the right, Xavier Bertrand stands out but with only 27% of those questioned who believe that he would make a good candidate, three points less than at the end of 2019. The president of Hauts-de-France is ahead of Valérie Pécresse (17%), Michel Barnier (15%), Laurent Wauquiez (11%) and Bruno Retailleau (6%).
The left-right divide "overtaken"
On the left, almost all the putative candidates are on a level playing field, from Anne Hidalgo (20%) to Jean-Luc Mélenchon (18%) via Arnaud Montebourg (16%).
Environmentalists are ahead: Yannick Jadot is only considered a good candidate by 12% of respondents (-4 points), still far ahead of the mayor of Grenoble Eric Piolle (3%).
Not enough to disturb for the time being the President of the Republic and the leader of the National gathering.
Especially since the French still estimate at 64% that the left-right divide "does not mean much and is exceeded", a stable result.
As a confirmation of the diagnosis formulated by Emmanuel Macron in 2017 to build his electoral strategy: that of a confrontation now anchored in the political landscape between the pro-European progressives on the one hand, the Eurosceptic nationalists on the other.
According to our survey, 37% of French people believe that the outgoing president would win in the second round against Marine Le Pen, against 25% who bet on a victory for the president of the RN.
Survey carried out on a sample of 2,085 people,
representative of the French population aged 18 and over.